Week 5 of the 2021 NFL season will go down as one of the more frustrating weeks for kickers in recent memory. Mason Crosby and Evan McPherson combined to miss five field-goal chances in an overtime game in Cincinnati. Luckily for Crosby owners, the veteran kicker did make four field goals to salvage his day.
The week ended on another sour note for kickers, with Rodrigo Blankenship shanking a 47-yard attempt as time expired that would have given the Colts a victory. Instead, Lamar Jackson drove down the field to secure the comeback win for Baltimore.
There were a total of 13 missed extra points on the week, with three players missing two in their respective games, including rookie Tristan Vizcaino, who nearly cost his team a win over the Browns.
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Week 5 Stud Performances from widely available kickers
Nick Folk (NE) @ Houston: 19% roster percentage on Yahoo
For the third time this season, Nick Folk has topped ten fantasy points and finished as a Top-10 kicker. His 16 fantasy points were the most on the week, just ahead of Greg Joseph of the Vikings and Zane Gonzalez of the Panthers.
Earlier this season, I wrote about the trend of rookie quarterbacks providing excellent opportunities for kickers based on red-zone struggles for the offense. Through five games, the Patriots rank dead last in red-zone efficiency, making Folk a very viable option this week and going forward.
Greg Joseph (MIN) vs. Detroit: 15% ownership on Yahoo
Although Joseph has three games of over ten fantasy points this season, he is rostered in just 15% of leagues. This is not a surprise, as he burned fantasy owners with just one point in Week 4 after many owners chanced his production from the prior week. The Vikings rank in the top-12 in yards per game but struggle in the red zone as the 13th-worst red-zone offense. This bodes well for kickers, as long as they are not playing a team that stinks in red-zone defense. The Panthers do struggle in that department, and both Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey are likely back this week, which could hurt Joseph’s value in Week 6.
Week 5 Dud Performances from widely-rostered kickers
Justin Tucker (BAL) vs. Indianapolis: 100% roster percentage on Yahoo
It is a rarity for a team to score 31 points in a victory and not have an extra point try for their kicker and just one field goal attempt. This was a wacky game script that all but killed Tucker’s value. I would not pivot from him, and I will continue to rank him as an elite option.
Kicker Rankings
*Red Zone Efficiency is based on the inverse of how well the kicker's offense does in the red zone. For example, the Ravens rank 8th in red zone efficiency; therefore Justin Tucker has an RZ EFF score of 24. The lower number, the better for kickers, as playing on a team that struggles to score touchdowns in the red zone equates to more field goal opportunities.
**The K Score is the sum of a player's opponent red zone, the red zone efficiency of his offense, and the overall rank of his respective team in terms of total yards. A low score indicates that a kicker has variables working in his favor for a good fantasy kicking performance.
Kicker rankings are based on numerous factors, including matchups, Vegas lines and score projections, weather conditions, the ability of a kicker's team offense and their ability to move the ball into field goal range, offensive red zone efficiency, and how well the opposing defense limits touchdowns in the red zone. These factors are a guide, but not a definitive way to predict kicking success, as other variables and negative game scripts significantly impact the outcome.
Based on all of the variables mentioned above, the following two kickers are players ranked outside of the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who could be an excellent play Week 6.
Tristan Vizcaino (LAC) at Baltimore 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
Vizcaino missed two extra points last week and did not kick a field goal in the shootout win for the Chargers. Assuming he still has the job and the weather in Baltimore is not terrible, his K Score indicates that he is in line for a big day. My pick for this week is Randy Bullock, but for the sake of mixing it up and not repeating myself too much, I chose to go on a limb with Vizcaino.
Rodrigo Blankenship (IND) vs. Houston 51% roster percentage on Yahoo
Hot Rod was a hot mess last week, with two missed field goals and an extra point that ended up costing the Colts the chance of a tough road victory over the Ravens, and his four fantasy points likely cost more than a few fantasy managers a victory in Week 5. While I understand managers moving on out of frustration, Hot Rod projects to have a solid game this week at home against the Texans, with a K Score of 26.
Prediction Review
Each week I suggest two kickers ranked outside the FantasyPros ECR top 10 who I believe will be solid performers based on the variables described in the K Score section. The following is a review of my picks from the previous week to see where I was successful and where I missed the mark.
Chris Boswell (PIT) vs. Denver 7% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 23
My Rank: 10
Week 5 Finish: Tied 8
This one took a bit of intestinal fortitude on my part based on the fact that Boswell was ranked outside the top 24 on most boards, and entered the week with just 17 total fantasy points in his last three games. His K Score indicated a high probability of kicker success, with the Broncos having the top red-zone defense and the Steelers having one of the worst red-zone offenses. Chalk this one up as a victory.
Randy Bullock (TEN) @ Jacksonville 1% roster percentage on Yahoo
ECR Rank: 12
My Rank: 9
Week 5 Finish: T15
Bullock came through with a solid game, but not what I was expecting based on his matchup and the K Score. It did not help that he missed an extra point that cost him a chance to finish with eight fantasy points. If the Titans continue to be a top-10 offense and struggle in the red zone, Bullock should end the season as a top-12 kicker.
Waiver Wired
Top Add
Brandon McManus (DEN) vs. Raiders: 41% roster percentage on Yahoo
McManus has just eight fantasy points over the past two weeks after scoring 29 in Weeks 2 and 3. Now that Teddy Two Gloves is back and the Broncos return home to take on the Raiders, McManus is back in line for a big game and a top-10 performance in Week 6.
Other players to consider
Nick Folk (NE) vs. Dallas 19% roster percentage on Yahoo
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Andrew Swanson is a correspondent at FantasyPros. For more from Andrew, check out his archive or follow him @FFtoday_Andy.
