We’ve all bought into some hype that ended up hurting us long-term. It’s inevitable in life. We see something flashy, like a statistically gaudy playoff performance or a great few weeks to end the regular season and turn it into proof that a player is a must-have. There are also the players who vastly underperformed that we believe have no option other than to rebound hugely. Maybe they need a change of scenery or better coaching staff.
It’s easy to be swayed by recency bias. It happens to everyone. When we see these huge breakouts or underwhelming season performances, before getting too excited and going all in, it’s crucial to figure out why it happened and if it’s reversible or sustainable.
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As the 2020 season came to a close, Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis showed flashes of being ready to jump into the conversation as a low-end WR2/ high-end WR3. With four touchdowns and four ten-plus fantasy point performances in his last six games, it appeared he had found favor in Brian Daboll’s offense and would be in the mix as the possible WR2 in Buffalo in 2021.
The offseason addition of wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders coupled with Cole Beasley being far more involved in the offense than expected spelled early-season doomsday for many managers who bought into the Davis hype. Through the first ten weeks of the season, he was the overall WR82 with 48.8 PPR points, while his consensus ADP was at WR70. To his credit, Davis began to see more involvement in Week 14. He took advantage of the uptick in targets, amassing 15.3 fantasy points against Tampa Bay and then again in Week 15 against Carolina with 25.5 fantasy points. And then, there was the divisional round of the playoffs.
Gabriel Davis shocked anyone who follows football in the Bills divisional-round loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. With eight catches for 204 yards and four touchdowns, it looked like he couldn’t be stopped. Was this a sign from the fantasy football gods that Davis was finally on his way to being a high-end WR2 in 2022? While anything is possible, that is more than likely not the case. With Kansas City safety Tyrann Mathieu inactive, Buffalo exploited a hole in the Chiefs defense and got Davis isolated in coverage and open more often than Stefon Diggs. Emmanuel Sanders came into the game limping and saw minimal work as well.
Davis is now and will always be someone who can excel when the opportunity arises. He won’t ever be someone you can count on to be a consistent fantasy scorer. I understand wanting to believe he is the next big thing after watching him shred a good Kansas City defense. There will be spots in 2022 where he will have opportunities to score big for fantasy. That said, I’m not giving up high draft picks or quality, consistent veterans to acquire Davis, and neither should you.
It’s fair to say that very few people saw the late-season explosion by Amon-Ra St. Brown coming. While the fourth-round draft pick out of USC had shown a quality skill-set and ability to make plays happen in his first 11 NFL starts, in that span, he was only the overall WR62. It’s safe to say that him finishing the season as the overall WR2 from Week 13 through Week 18 wasn’t on anyone’s radar.
It’s hard to ignore St. Brown’s stats in that six-game span. He averaged 11.16 targets, 8.5 catches, 93.3 receiving yards to go along with five touchdowns. These are all awe-inspiring numbers, but they need context.
Tight end TJ Hockenson, the overall TE3 behind only Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews through Week 13, didn’t take a snap from Week 14 due to a nagging hand injury. Running back, D’Andre Swift, a significant player in the Detroit passing attack, didn’t see the field between Weeks 13 and 16. In addition to those two later-in-the-season injuries, wide receiver Quintez Cephus went down for the season in Week 5.
Amon-Ra St. Brown had to separate himself from wide receivers Kalif Raymond and KhaDarel Hodge, and I won’t take that away from him. He is a very talented receiver who fits well in head coach Dan Campbell’s offensive philosophy. Long-term, I believe he has shown quarterback Jared Goff and the rest of this offense that he is reliable and versatile. There will be a solidified role for him even with the return of Hockenson and a fully healthy Swift in 2022. I’m still in on Amon-Ra in 2022 as a low-end WR2/high-end WR3, but at his current value in dynasty, I’m not buying him where I don’t have him.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
