The mid-week main slate is medium-sized. It includes eight games, starting at 7:05 pm ET. The pitching options aren’t stacked. However, that’s reflected in a lack of high-salary choices. As a result, there might be some offensive outbursts tonight.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
One of the best pitchers in 2022 is the top option in cash games tonight. However, there's a great pivot in GPPs. Meanwhile, the SP2 options at DraftKings have intriguing upside and modest salaries.
The mid-week main slate is medium-sized. It includes eight games, starting at 7:05 pm ET. The pitching options aren’t stacked. However, that’s reflected in a lack of high-salary choices. As a result, there might be some offensive outbursts tonight.
Wednesday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
One of the best pitchers in 2022 is the top option in cash games tonight. However, there's a great pivot in GPPs. Meanwhile, the SP2 options at DraftKings have intriguing upside and modest salaries.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Nestor Cortes (NYY) vs. LAA
Cortes has been unreal this year. According to FanGraphs, in nine starts spanning 53 innings, he's had a 1.70 ERA, 2.90 SIERA, 0.85 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, and 30.2 K%. The lefty made a seamless transition to the rotation last year. Still, he's remarkably built on his success.
Tonight, he has a potentially tricky matchup against a top-heavy lineup. Regardless, Nasty Nestor has been too good to rank anywhere other than the top of the heap tonight. Understandably, the Yankees are -172 favorites, per Betting Pros. Yet, the game's total of 8.5 runs provides a fair warning of the risk, hence Cortes' risk-assessment level of medium on the table.
Jeffrey Springs (TB) at TEX
Since moving into the rotation, Springs has been outstanding. In five starts, Springs has had a 2.35 ERA, 3.29 SIERA, 0.87 WHIP, 4.6 BB%, 25.3 K%, and 28.3 CSW%. Unfortunately, he's pitched only 23 innings as a starter due to getting stretched out.
However, he's thrown precisely 80 pitches in back-to-back starts. So, Springs is stretched out. The Rangers are a challenging matchup for Springs. Thankfully, their active roster offsets the risk by providing Springs with massive strikeout potential. Finally, the betting info is good. The Rays are -125 favorites, and the over/under is a lowly 7.5 runs.
GPP Recommendations:
Robbie Ray (SEA) at BAL
Ray is an outstanding GPP pivot from Cortes. The Mariners spanked the Orioles last night. Now, they're -152 favorites tonight.
Sadly, Ray hasn't duplicated his 2021 AL Cy Young Award-winning form this year. Still, his ERA estimators have outpaced his 4.75 ERA. Ray has also struck out an outstanding 27.1% of the hitters he's faced. Therefore, the lefty has exactly the upside gamers seek in GPPs.
Jon Gray (TEX) vs. TB
In his last four starts, Gray has had an underwhelming 4.50 ERA in 22 innings. However, his 4.00 xFIP and 4.09 SIERA have been slightly more encouraging. In addition, Gray has struck out a respectable 22.6% of opposing hitters.
Regardless, Gray is primarily a matchup-driven suggestion. Wander Franco was placed on the Injured List, removing a quality hitter from Tampa Bay's lineup. As a result, the Rays' active lineup lacks high-end talent and depth against righties. Finally, Gray's a slight underdog (+105), but the game's total (7.5 runs) is inviting.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Red Sox have had back-to-back duds. Regardless, that doesn't deter oddsmakers and bettors from giving them a high implied total. Opposing starter Hunter Greene has an exciting, lively arm. Nonetheless, he's had a 5.89 ERA in nine starts. Add in Fenway Park's second-highest park factor for runs, and Boston has massive upside tonight.
- Home (Rogers Centre)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.0 Runs/TOR -138
The Blue Jays had a good showing last night. Nevertheless, they probably won't be a popular stack against Michael Kopech. Among pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched, the 26-year-old righty's 1.29 ERA is the lowest. However, there's a significant disconnect between his ERA and ERA estimators, such as his 4.60 xFIP and 4.44 SIERA. Maybe the other shoe will drop tonight, making the Blue Jays a viable GPP stack.
- Since 2019, in 609 plate appearances against righties at Fenway Park, Xander Bogaerts has had a .391 OBP, .243 ISO, and 147 wRC+.
- Under the same conditions cited for Bogaerts above, in 598 plate appearances, Rafael Devers has had a .370 OBP, .284 ISO, and 148 wRC+.
- Don't look now, but Joey Votto has been coming back to life since returning from the COVID IL. In 39 plate appearances, he's had a .436 OBP, five doubles, one triple, and two homers.
- This year, Danny Jansen has been unloading in righty-righty matchups. The backstop has mashed six taters with a .621 ISO in 31 plate appearances.
- Andrew Vaughn has been a lefty-killer since reaching The Show last year. He's had a .379 OBP, .262 ISO, and 153 wRC+.
Wednesday's Hitter Strategy
The Red Sox are the primary source of offense tonight. However, the Blue Jays are a nifty GPP option. Finally, Votto and Vaughn are excellent value picks at both DFS providers.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
