MLB Trade Value Risers & Fallers: Oneil Cruz, C.J. Cron, Lucas Giolito (2022)

Each week, FantasyPros publishes a fantasy baseball trade chart. The chart contains player values designed to help you assess the overall weight of both sides of a trade.

The weekly trade charts also keep track of the changes in a player’s value from the previous week. But sometimes, the reasons for a change aren’t obvious. “Why is player X gaining three points in value this week when player Y, who had an even better week, remained the same?”

Good question, reader. There are many answers as to why any given player moves in value from one week to the next. And in this article, we’ll examine some of the biggest risers and fallers each week, and explain the movement.

Here are some of the most notable risers and fallers in the FantasyPros Week 11 Trade Value Chart:

Risers

C.J. Cron (1B – COL). Week 11 Value: 15. Previous Value: 10. Change: +5

I’ve mentioned this before, but sometimes, there are just blind spots with fantasy sports, and Cron was one of them for me. Yes, he struggles on the road, and was slashing just .219/.268/.386 away from Coors entering play on Tuesday.

But although that could be enough to keep his value in check overall, that’s not a reason to keep him valued as just a garden variety first baseman. Cron has 17 home runs, 52 RBI, and a .298 batting average entering play on Tuesday. His .384 wOBA ranks in the top six percent of MLB, and his 115.5 max exit velocity ranks in the top two percent.

The fact that you can consider benching him on the road factors in, of course. But he still deserves to be higher in value, and has for some time.

Oneil Cruz (SS – PIT). Week 11 Value: 4. Previous Value: N/A. Change: +4.

Pretty simple, yes? He’s finally been called up to the big leagues. There’s risk with every young player, but that omnipresent risk is the only reason why Cruz isn’t ranked higher.

If you’ve watched either of his first two games in the majors this year, you understand what the hype is about. He’s had just a few batted ball events and his 112.9 MPH max exit velocity ranks in the top 10% of MLB. He stole his first base on Tuesday night. His 96.7 MPH throw from shortstop on Monday was the fastest by any infielder this year.

Of course, he could flop. His large frame and long swing make slumps possible, and he got off to a terrible start in the minors. So, keep his value in check for now. But if he continues on this trajectory, it will rise, and soon.

Fallers

Lucas Giolito (SP – CWS). Week 11 Value: 23. Previous Value: 27. Change: -4

Giolito has a 4.78 ERA and 1.49 WHIP. Almost all of that damage has come in his last four starts, but still, those numbers are beyond ugly.

As always, he gives up a lot of loud contact, as his max exit velocity ranks in the bottom five percent of the league for the third time in the last four seasons. He gives up a ton of barrels (12.3% barrel rate) and his xWOBA on contact is a ridiculously poor .474.

To make matters worse, he has a 9.9% walk rate, his worst since 2018. So, in addition to giving up incredibly hard contact, he’s also putting more batters on via the free pass.

The thing is, Giolito isn’t this bad and his fantasy managers surely know it. His 28.9% strikeout rate is still excellent, and his two really poor starts over his last four have come against the Astros and Blue Jays. The overwhelming likelihood is that he’s going to figure things out and get back to being a top-15 starter or so over the next several weeks.

But, given his recent, and now overall, performance, he needs to be dropped in trade value.

Alex Bregman (3B – HOU). Week 11 Value: 9. Previous Value: 12. Change: -3

What in the world has happened to Bregman? His walk and strikeout rates are still elite, but his power and speed are just . . . gone. He’s batting .218 with seven home runs and no steals. His sprint speed is in the 29th percentile of MLB. His max exit velocity is in the 27th percentile.

In his career, the one thing you could count on with Bregman was that he would pulverize lefties. His .302/.391/.541 career slash line against them helped buoy his overall numbers for years. But this season, Bregman is slashing just .160/.277/.272 against lefties.

Bregman has never had particularly great quality of contact and his barrel percentage is actually his highest since 2018. So, some sort of rebound remains possible. But if you took the name off his jersey, he’d be a replacement level player. His value will continue to drop until or unless he turns things around.

If you want to dive deeper into fantasy baseball, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Baseball Tools as you navigate your season. From our Lineup Assistant – which provides your optimal lineup, based on accurate consensus projections – to our Waiver Wire Assistant – that allows you to quickly see which available players will improve your team, and by how much – we’ve got you covered this fantasy baseball season.

Dan Harris is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Dan, check out his archive or follow him on Twitter @danharris80.