It’s healthy to disagree. There are certainly plenty of takes this time of year around the fantasy football community. Some plant their flag on players as ‘their guys,’ while others are avoiding the same player at all cost. Let’s take a look at a few players that experts Derek Brown and Joe Dolan believer are currently ranked too high in our expert consensus rankings.
Rankings noted using FantasyPros half-PPR Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR).
David Montgomery (RB – CHI): RB16
Despite being an entrenched workhorse, David Montgomery finished as a top-24 running back in fewer than half of his contests last season (46%). Former sixth-rounder Khalil Herbert was a top-12 running back in two of his five games last season when he received at least a 50% snap share.
Just don’t draft David Montgomery. Projected volume is the only reason he’s going where his ADP is, but a new coaching staff could approach the backfield differently. In my heart of hearts, I think Herbert is the better, more explosive back. Monty finished outside the top 24 in more than half of his games last season. His 2022 ADP hits inside the top-20 RBs. No thanks.
Damien Harris (RB – NE): RB27
I know what you’re thinking. Yes, Damien Harris was the RB14 on the season last year. What some people fail to realize, however, is that 42% of his fantasy production came from touchdowns. In 2021, Harris scored 15 touchdowns. All were scored on the ground, which was tied for the second most in the league. As many of us know, touchdowns are not a sticky stat. Meaning, they are hard to project and are not consistent year to year.
In fact, on a per-game basis, Harris was the RB20, scoring 14.2 fantasy points per game. Keeping his production from last season but taking away just five scores, Harris would have still put up 10 touchdowns. This would be good for the sixth-best mark in the league. However, in doing so, he would have dropped to RB23 on the season. A steep drop-off for a player scoring just five fewer touchdowns. The reason? The lack of a receiving role.
In his 15 games last season, Harris drew just 21 targets. Catching 18 of them, good for 60th in the league, he added only 132 receiving yards to his production. Harris possesses no upside when it comes to fantasy football. Today, to have the advantage in fantasy leagues, running backs need to catch the ball. Due to his lack of work in the passing game, Harris saw over 50% of the snaps in just three games. If a running back is seeing the field just half of the time, he better be getting used in the passing game. This is a big red flag for Harris. This, along with some expected touchdown regression and the emergence of Rhamondre Stevenson, puts Harris on the do not draft list.
Aaron Jones (RB – GB): RB10
There is no denying the talent that Aaron Jones has as a lethal weapon in the Packers’ offense. While Jones was an elite receiving option for QB Aaron Rodgers, ranking 10th in receiving yards and seventh in targets amongst RBs on a per-game basis, Jones only rushed for 799 yards in 2021 (21st amongst RBs). The lack of rushing could hold Jones back as an elite fantasy RB in 2022, especially with fellow RB A.J. Dillon expecting a larger workload following his emergence in the Packers’ offense during his first two years in the league. It seems the only way Jones could reach his rich price tag as the RB10 in 2022 is if he can produce a similar elite target share, though it seems unlikely with Dillon cutting into his workload in the Packers’ backfield.
Antonio Gibson (RB – WAS): RB19
Antonio Gibson has been a solid option over the last two seasons as the RB16 and RB17 in fantasy points per game. He also ranked tenth in yards per route run, fifth in evaded tackles, and 14th in juke rate. He was tied for seventh in carries inside the five-yard line and eighth in weighted opportunities. We already know the pass game usage is capped with J.D. McKissic resigned, but now the goalline could be in jeopardy with Brian Robinson on the depth chart. The team has talked about lightening Gibson’s load, so the threat of Robinson is real, especially if Gibson keeps putting the ball on the turf. Since 2020 he’s tied with Ezekiel Elliott for the most fumbles (six) in the NFL among running backs.
FantasyPros Staff Consensus 2022 Redraft Fantasy Football Rankings
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