Friday’s main slate isn’t as monstrous as usual. Still, it’s a decent size, featuring 10 games. The start time is 7:05 pm ET. There’s a fine blend of pitching options at various price points and a game at Coors Field that will probably generate offense.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
An ace with a cushy matchup is the no-brainer top hurler on tonight's slate. Next, however, a high-strikeout righty is a sweet GPP swerve. Finally, a pair of righties squaring off in the late window are also GPP options on FanDuel and the best SP2 picks on DraftKings.
Friday’s main slate isn’t as monstrous as usual. Still, it’s a decent size, featuring 10 games. The start time is 7:05 pm ET. There’s a fine blend of pitching options at various price points and a game at Coors Field that will probably generate offense.
Friday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
An ace with a cushy matchup is the no-brainer top hurler on tonight's slate. Next, however, a high-strikeout righty is a sweet GPP swerve. Finally, a pair of righties squaring off in the late window are also GPP options on FanDuel and the best SP2 picks on DraftKings.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Corbin Burnes (MIL) at PIT
Burnes is poised to smash in a delectable matchup. The 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner is having a fabulous season. According to FanGraphs, in 15 starts spanning 93.1 innings, he's twirled a 2.41 ERA, 2.77 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP and 32.4 K%.
As great as Burnes has been, he has a chance to shine even brighter against the Pirates tonight. Pittsburgh's tied for 26th in wRC+ (86) against righties and has struck out at a 25.2% clip. So, the sky is the limit. The betting info is great, too. Per Betting Pros, the Brewers are -200, and the game's total is 7.5 runs.
Alex Cobb (SF) vs. CWS
Cobb also has excellent betting info. The Giants are -148, and the game's total is identical to the one above, 7.5 runs. Sadly, Cobb has had a horrendous 5.48 ERA. Yet, looking under the hood is more encouraging, revealing a 2.34 xERA, 2.70 xFIP and 26.5 K%.
Cobb underperformed his ERA estimators last year, but his 3.76 ERA was still decent. It's unlikely Cobb maintains his strong underlying metrics and posts an ERA north of 5.00. Thus, gamers are encouraged to buy into his ERA estimators, foreboding a turnaround.
GPP Recommendations:
Cristian Javier (HOU) vs. LAA
If gamers pivot away from Burnes in GPPs, they should chase strikeout potential. Thankfully, Javier packs that in spades. In 10 starts totaling 51.1 innings, he's had a robust 29.9 K%. Javier has also had a stellar 3.33 ERA and 3.73 ERA. Therefore, he's more than merely a high-strikeout pitcher.
Regardless, a matchup with the Angels should accentuate his strikeout prowess. The Angels' 26.1 K% against righties this year is the highest mark in MLB. So the combination of Javier's ability to strike hitters out at a high clip and the Angels' vulnerability to strikeouts is perfect for GPPs.
Lance Lynn (CWS) at SF
Lynn has had a 6.19 ERA in three starts this year, but his 3.32 xFIP has been more promising. In addition, he's coming off an eight-strikeout performance in which he had a jaw-dropping 21.1 SwStr%. Lynn may be on the precipice of a top-shelf start.
The Giants are a challenging matchup. Nonetheless, they also enhance Lynn's ceiling. Over the last 14 days, San Francisco's 25.1 K% has been the sixth-highest mark. Further, even their 22.6 K% against righties this year is exploitable. As a result, Lynn is a high-ceiling GPP selection.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rockies have a large implied total. But, of course, that's for a good reason. Colorado has had the highest wOBA (.350) in home games in 2022. Merill Kelly isn't a punching-bag pitcher, but no one is confusing him for an ace. In addition, his lackluster 19.5 K% could bite him in the butt tonight. In fact, it's likely pitching to contact won't serve him well.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 11.5 Runs/ARI EVEN
The Diamondbacks are the visitors to MLB's hitting paradise and have a tasty implied total, too. Moreover, they have a more favorable matchup than the hosts. Antonio Senzatela has been rocked for a 4.66 ERA and 5.85 xERA through a dozen starts. Thus, the game in Colorado has a back-and-forth slugfest written all over it.
- Road (Target Field)
- Value: High
- Risk: High
- Game Type: GPP
- Game Total/Moneyline: 9.0 Runs/BAL +190
The Orioles are a sneaky stack tonight. Joe Ryan has had a 3.47 ERA in 85.2 innings in The Show. Unfortunately, he hasn't been the same since returning from a COVID-IL stint. Ryan's velocity has been down, and he's struggled to avoid contact, striking out only 11 of 70 batters in three starts since activation from the COVID-IL. Perhaps, his velocity ticks up and he gets back on track tonight. Yet, the Orioles can payoff as a contrarian stack if he doesn't.
- C.J. Cron has been a wrecking ball at home with the Rockies, even in same-handed matchups. In 320 plate appearances at home against righties since 2021, Cron has had a .401 OBP, .292 ISO, .431 wOBA and 149 wRC+.
- Brendan Rodgers is an affordable piece of Colorado's high implied total in a decent lineup spot, hitting fifth. In addition, he's had a rock-solid .321 wOBA against righties at home this year.
- Carlos Correa is a handful for fellow righties, and he's been on fire since returning from the IL. In 85 plate appearances from June 8 through June 29, he hit six homers with a .400 OBP, .276 ISO and 189 wRC+. He also collected a hit and a walk yesterday.
- Alek Thomas is a bargain from the two-hole for the Diamondbacks. The rookie has had a .206 ISO and 119 wRC+ with the platoon advantage.
- Ryan McMahon has made the most of the platoon advantage in his hitter-friendly confines, evidenced by his .232 ISO and .360 wOBA in 699 plate appearances against righties at Coors Field.
- Riley Green has already climbed to Detroit's cleanup spot. The toolsy outfielder has had a .419 OBP and 126 wRC+ in 43 plate appearances. Greene hasn't tapped into his power for the Tigers yet, but he drilled 24 dongs with a .233 ISO in 558 plate appearances in Double-A and Triple-A last season. So, Greene has plenty of pop in his stick.
Friday's Hitter Strategy
Sometimes, the obvious choice for hitters is the correct one. Tonight, that's the case. The Rockies and Diamondbacks have a game total of 11.5 runs. As a result, both offenses should light up the scoreboard. Still, there's always a chance they stumble, and the O's are facing a pitcher who hasn't been sharp. Thus, Baltimore is an excellent contrarian stack in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
