Monday’s main slate is medium-sized. It starts at 7:10 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, it’s eight games on DK and seven on FD. The second game of the doubleheader between the Tigers and Royals is included on the former’s main slate and excluded on the latter.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The reasonable pitching options are narrowed down to only two on FD. However, there's a third option for GPPs at DK.
Monday’s main slate is medium-sized. It starts at 7:10 pm ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. However, it’s eight games on DK and seven on FD. The second game of the doubleheader between the Tigers and Royals is included on the former’s main slate and excluded on the latter.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
The reasonable pitching options are narrowed down to only two on FD. However, there's a third option for GPPs at DK.
Cash Game Recommendation:
Max Scherzer (NYM) at ATL
Scherzer is in a battle of aces tonight against Max Fried. He's the visitor and a slight underdog. According to Betting Pros, the Mets are +105. However, the game's over/under (7.0 runs) is optimal for both aces.
Mad Max gets the edge over Fried because of his strikeout ability. According to FanGraphs, he's had a 32.7 K% and 30.9 CSW% in nine starts spanning 55.2 innings. Additionally, Scherzer eliminated any concerns about rust after a lengthy Injured List (IL) stint by throwing six scoreless innings with zero walks and 11 strikeouts on July 5.
The Braves are a challenging matchup, but they strike out a ton. They've had a 24.8 K% against righties this year. As a result, Scherzer should rack up strikeouts in bunches tonight.
Merrill Kelly (ARI) at SF
Kelly has primarily been a reliable innings-eater since joining the Diamondbacks in 2019. However, he's been a little better this year, owning a 3.42 ERA and 3.54 xERA.
Kelly has had only one wretched start this year, allowing eight runs in two innings to the Dodgers on May 17. He's allowed no more than three runs in 14 of 17 starts. The veteran righty also partially offset allowing five runs in six innings on June 13 with seven strikeouts.
Kelly isn't the most exciting option, but he's decent. Moreover, he is a cap-friendly option, opening up the requisite space for studs on a medium-sized slate with a game at Coors Field. Frankly, that's good enough.
GPP Recommendations:
Daniel Lynch (KC) vs. DET
Lynch is roughly as risky of a pick as there is. This will be his first start off of the IL. The young southpaw was roughed up in a rehab start in Triple-A, throwing 63 pitches but only 31 for strikes, per MiLB.com.
However, since he reached 63 pitches, Lynch shouldn't face a significant pitch restriction tonight. Additionally, the 25-year-old was teasing his potential immediately before landing on the IL. In his final three starts spanning 15 innings before his IL stint for a blister, Lynch had a 3.50 ERA, 3.16 xFIP, 32.8 K% and 14.3 SwStr%. Sadly, he also had an 11.9 BB%, which creates additional risk beyond the standard risk of returning from the IL.
Regardless, Lynch's strikeout ability makes him a viable GPP option. Additionally, the Tigers are tied for 19th in wRC+ (100) against lefties this year and could be even less potent if they sit some of their regulars in the second game of a doubleheader.
Top Lineup Stacks
- Home (Coors Field)
- Value: Low
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 12.0 Runs/COL +122
As long as most of Colorado's integral players are in the lineup, they're a high-upside stack. Colorado has made the most of playing home games at MLB's premier hitting venue. This year, they have had the highest wOBA (.349) in home games. In addition, opposing starter Sean Manaea has been in a bit of a funk, yielding 14 runs in only 19.1 innings in his previous four starts. As a result, the ceiling is the moon for the Rockies.
- Road (Coors Field)
- Value: Medium
- Risk: Low
- Game Type: Both
- Game Total/Moneyline: 12.0 Runs/SD -145
Jose Urena is a ticking time bomb. He's had a 7.29 ERA and 5.85 xFIP in five Triple-A starts lasting 21 innings, and Urena's 6.19 xERA in 14.1 innings (one start and four relief appearances) for the Rockies is an indication of what's likely to come. San Diego's offense lacks star power, but they can show out tonight in a mouthwatering matchup at Coors Field.
- Manny Machado is the superstar in San Diego's lineup. So far, he's had an MVP-caliber campaign. In 322 plate appearances, he's hit 14 homers with a .385 OBP, .221 ISO, 156 wRC+ and seven stolen bases.
- C.J. Cron was out over the weekend, tending to a left wrist that was struck by a fastball on Friday night. Nevertheless, he's an excellent pick if he plays tonight. The slugger is a lefty-killer who's excelled at Coors Field. In 135 plate appearances at home against southpaws since 2021, he's hit 12 homers with a .422 OBP, .395 ISO and 179 wRC+.
- Brendan Rodgers has also been sharp against lefties at home. In his career, he's had a .373 OBP, .200 ISO and 118 wRC+ against them at Coors Field.
- Trent Grisham hit leadoff yesterday and is projected above to do the same tonight. Using a leadoff hitter at Coors Field against Urena is an easy decision on DK at his sub-$3,000 salary.
- Seth Brown is an FD-specific suggestion. He's outfield eligible and only $200 more than the minimum salary at FD. At his salary, the lefty's career .239 ISO and 110 wRC+ in 586 plate appearances against righties is plenty good enough.
- Elias Diaz isn't a player to sleep on tonight, even at FD. The 31-year-old backstop has had a rock-solid .182 ISO and .335 wOBA against lefties since 2019.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The hitter strategy tonight is straightforward. Gamers are encouraged to eat some chalk at Coors Field, mixing in stars and punts from the Rockies and Padres. Using both offenses with Scherzer at FD is a little more challenging. Therefore, gamers should prioritize the listed core studs from above and squeeze them under the cap with an extra punt or two.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
