There is always a price where a player can provide value. However, based on average draft position, it is unlikely certain players are going to provide the value warranted to draft them where they are currently being selected. Here are players that our analysts are far lower on compared to their ADP. Check out Andrew Erickson’s All-Bust Team for 2022.
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Andrew Erickson’s All-Bust Team
Quarterback
Mahomes ranked fourth in fantasy points per game (22.0), but averaged fewer fantasy points per game than in 2020 (25.2). And that was with Tyreek Hill in the fold.
Heading into 2022, Hill’s departure cannot be ignored. The duo ranks second in combined passing touchdowns (41) since 2016 — despite Mahomes not becoming the starter until the 2018 season. There’s genuine concern about his top-tier weekly ceiling without Hill that is not being factored into his QB2 ADP.
Among QBs being drafted in the top-3 ADP…Mahomes posted the highest bust rate last season.
In 7 games that Tyreek Hill busted in 2021, Mahomes had just one top-five finish. When Hill finished WR20 or better, Mahomes had five top-finishes.
Coming off a season where he posted a career-low PFF passing grade (77.5) and a career-high in interceptions (16) — he’s being overvalued as the QB2 on name recognition alone.
Running Back
Wide Receiver
The difference between having Geno Smith/Drew Lock at quarterback versus Russell Wilson cannot be overstated enough. It’s a horrible situation to be in and puts D.K. Metcalf in a tough spot.
Although the alpha wideout did rise to the occasion under a small sample size last season, averaging 14.9 fantasy points per game (15th – same as his final season-long standing) without Wilson at quarterback for three games.
But I am suspect that removing their quarterback that led the NFL in yards per attempt (10.4), passer rating (133.6) and passer rating from a clean pocket (130.9) before his finger injury is going to create a much larger impact over a 17-game sample size.
Metcalf has scored 32 TDs over the past 3 seasons…
But scoring might be a rare commodity for this 2022 Seahawks offense.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) August 24, 2022
There’s a chance that the Steelers’ pass-play rates drop dramatically with a new quarterback. Pittsburgh has ranked second in pass-play rate over the last two seasons with Ben Roethlisberger. During the 2019 season, when Big Ben missed all but two games, the Steelers ranked 23rd in pass-play rate. Nobody on that offense saw more than 100 targets.
With Diontae Johnson battling for targets with the likes of Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth, George Pickens with a brand new QB that might not pepper him as heavily with targets, in a more run-centric offense that still has the potential of bottoming-out;
I’m not as bullish on paying the premium price in Round 4 with so much uncertainty under center.
Keep in mind that the highest any WR finished attached to a rookie QB last season was Brandin Cooks as the WR20.
Johnson already threaded the needle with bad quarterback play last season – finishing as the lone top-10 WR in half-point scoring on an offense that generated a negative EPA per dropback. Four more finished in the WR18-WR24 range.
Receivers like Johnson are fantasy WR2s and won’t be fantasy WR1s on their existing bad offenses unless they see absolutely absurd target volume.
So why pay up Johnson’s 2021 26% target share in the middle of Round 4, when you can take Darnell Mooney’s or Brandin Cooks high-end target shares rounds later?
The 32-year-old wideout has made his hay in fantasy because of his “ability” to find the end zone 24 times since the start of 2020, but it’s something that just isn’t sustainable in the long term. Based on Thielen’s targets and yardage totals, his total TD number should be closer to 16.
Justin Jefferson is an ascending rocketship that will only see his TDs rise entering Year 3, most likely coming at the detriment of Thielen. Not to mention, AT’s age may finally be catching up to him after he posted his lowest PFF receiving grade and yards per route run since he first became a starter back in 2016.
Tight End
Last year, Mark Andrews was the early-round tight end who drove rosters to fantasy championships. The Baltimore Ravens’ fourth-year TE led the position with a 25% target share, 28% air yards share and 17.5 fantasy points per game. He ran a route on 84% of offensive dropbacks, which also ranked first.
With Marquise Brown traded to the Cardinals, Andrews has solidified himself as clear TE1 with a still unproven second-year wideout as his main competition for targets.
However, be aware that even if Andrews does repeat his efforts as TE1 it may not be to the extent that it was in 2021. His 623 routes run were 209 more than he had in 2020 and fueled the career year. Andrews’ increase in route running was tied to the Ravens’ boosted pass-play rate (56%).
From 2019-2020, Baltimore passed on fewer than 46% of their plays. Because Baltimore’s increase in passing was due out of necessity in 2021, I’d project it to regress closer to the 2019-2020 rate for this upcoming season.
FLEX
Josh Jacobs (RB – LV) & Damien Harris (RB – NE)
The Raiders offense looks to reach new heights in 2022 with No. 1 wide receiver Davante Adams added to the fold. And that benefits the team’s projected lead ball-carrier Josh Jacobs, who has sat out the team’s last two preseason games. A more efficient offense may lend itself to more scoring opportunities — a MUST behind PFF’s 29th-ranked OL — and Jacobs will reap the most rewards as the team’s primary red-zone back.
Last year’s RB13 smashed career highs in all receiving categories in 2021 despite playing alongside Kenyan Drake and Jalen Richard. There was a deliberate effort to feature Jacobs more as a receiver with him catching at least two passes in 12 of his 15 games played. And more importantly, the receiving capability that Jacobs displayed put to rest the narrative that he is “game-script” dependent. Whether the Raiders are winning or losing in a loaded 2022 AFC West, JJ has shown he can be used in all facets.
From Week 1o onward Jacobs ranked second in RB targets (42, 5.3 per game).
Although it’s important to keep in mind that over this eight-game stretch, Drake and Darren Waller missed five games. Jalen Richard missed three games. Considering Jacobs averaged just 3.3 targets per game before all the injuries in Weeks 1-9, he’s hardly a safe bet to carry over his pass-game usage from 2021 with more pass-catchers in the fold.
That makes him a very TD-dependent fantasy RB2.
Especially considering the Raiders elected to sign both Brandon Bolden and Ameer Abdullah this offseason to bolster their running back stable behind Jacobs. Bolden has been a special teams guy nearly his entire career, so I doubt he carves out any legitimate role on offense.
Abdullah has been used as a third-down back on the several teams he has been on at the NFL level, and the team electing to release Kenyan Drake suggests he’s a lock as the pass-catching RB out of the backfield.
The team also drafted Zamir White in the fourth round, but I would not expect too much from White in year one based on Josh McDaniels’ track record from New England of not featuring Day 3 rookie RBs.
There’s an outcome that the new head coach is more likely to run Jacobs into the ground on an expiring contract as he did with Dion Lewis, LeGarrette Blount and Shane Vereen during his Patriots tenure.
And besides, the red-zone role is the most significant for fantasy points, and that looks to be clearly in Jacobs’ grasp.
Two-down back Damien Harris was in the red-zone role for the Patriots last season and flourished because of it. He ranked fourth in carries (46) and third in rushing TDs (13) from inside the 20-yard line.
But the Patriots offense also lacked serious red-zone threats like Waller, Adams and Hunter Renfrow etc.
All in all, like many running backs listed on this bust list that are drafted in the dreaded RB dead zone (mostly Rounds 3-5,), there’s just too much “bad” in Jacobs’ 2022 projection that outweighs his potential TD upside in Vegas as a draft selection in the first five rounds. His current ADP is 45th overall, which is way too rich for my blood with the amount of issues regarding his profile.
You are much better off drafting WRs in this range.
But be open to scooping up value if everybody in your draft decides to fade one of this dead-zone backs to the point where the can be obtained in the late 6th or even 7th round of drafts.
After all, while Jacobs does not have a high weekly ceiling — zero top-six finishes (boom games) — last year, he was one of just four RBs that finished inside the top-16 that posted a 0% bust rate.
All else considered, he’s just a cheaper version of Ezekiel Elliott.
2022 Consensus Best Ball Rankings
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