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Let’s Stream Defenses: Week 4 (2022 Fantasy Football)

Sep 27, 2022
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Three weeks into the season is about when a picture starts to form of which offenses make sense to target with fantasy DSTs. I think the most notable is Russell Wilson. It turns out he wasn’t the missing piece for an otherwise good Broncos team like Peyton Manning was in 2012. The Broncos just seem bad, which combined with Wilson’s propensity for taking sacks makes them an excellent fantasy target.

As usual, we have a couple of injury-related updates to quarterback situations:

Check out all of our Week 4 fantasy football content >>

  • Patriots QB Mac Jones suffered a high ankle sprain last week. It’s not clear how long he’ll be out – apparently surgery is a possibility – but it appears likely he’ll miss multiple weeks. Veteran backup Brian Hoyer will start in the meantime. He’s not the worst quarterback in the world, but with a projection of just 14.5 points this week, Vegas seems to think he is.
  • Zach Wilson should return to start for the Jets this week after missing the first three weeks due to a torn meniscus sustained during the preseason. Joe Flacco was pretty good by backup standards, if inconsistent, so this isn’t necessarily a downgrade to the Jets as a DST target. They’re a good team to face either way.

Week 4 D/ST Projections

Byes don’t start until Week 6, so this is another good week for DSTs thanks to a full slate of games, with most of the worst offenses on the road. A few of my top picks have very low rostership, so your odds of getting an acceptable streamer are good. Rostership numbers are from Yahoo. You can find me on Twitter.

Rank Team Vs. O/U Spread PA Sacks Turnovers TD FPTS Rost%
The Start Them With Confidence Tier
1 PIT NYJ 41.5 -3.5 19 3.3 1.2 0.09 7.25 57%
2 GB NE 39.5 -10.5 14.5 2.1 1.2 0.09 7.18 67%
3 NYG CHI 39 -3 18 3.0 1.2 0.09 7.15 10%
The Still a Fine Choice Tier
4 IND TEN 42.5 -3 19.75 2.9 1.2 0.09 6.57 35%
5 LV DEN 44.5 -2.5 21 3.1 1.2 0.09 6.48 3%
6 CHI @NYG 39 3 21 2.9 1.2 0.09 6.43 42%
7 DET SEA 50 -5 22.5 3.1 1.3 0.09 6.40 1%
8 SF LAR 42.5 -2.5 20 2.6 1.2 0.09 6.28 97%
9 LAC @HOU 44.5 -5 19.75 2.4 1.2 0.09 6.20 87%
10 DAL WAS 42.5 -3.5 19.5 2.5 1.2 0.09 6.09 67%
11 MIN @NO 43.5 -2.5 20.5 2.4 1.2 0.09 6.03 19%
The Surely You Can Find Something Better Tier
12 MIA @CIN 47 3.5 25.25 3.3 1.2 0.09 5.95 15%
13 CLE @ATL 49.5 -1.5 24 2.6 1.2 0.09 5.63 49%
14 CAR ARI 44 -2 21 2.2 1.2 0.09 5.54 3%
15 LAR @SF 42.5 2.5 22.5 2.3 1.2 0.09 5.46 94%
16 NYJ @PIT 41.5 3.5 22.5 2.3 1.2 0.09 5.44 2%
17 TEN @IND 42.5 3 22.75 2.2 1.2 0.09 5.33 10%
18 PHI JAC 48.5 -6.5 21 1.8 1.2 0.09 5.31 56%
19 ATL CLE 49.5 1.5 25.5 2.8 1.1 0.08 5.21 5%
20 BUF @BAL 52 -3.5 24.25 2.5 1.1 0.08 5.19 100%
21 ARI @CAR 44 2 23 2.0 1.2 0.09 5.12 2%
22 NO MIN 43.5 2.5 23 2.0 1.2 0.09 5.12 83%
23 KC @TB 45 -2.5 21.25 1.6 1.2 0.09 4.95 44%
24 NE @GB 39.5 10.5 25 2.3 1.1 0.09 4.94 49%
25 DEN @LV 44.5 2.5 23.5 1.8 1.2 0.09 4.79 67%
26 HOU LAC 44.5 5.5 25 1.9 1.2 0.09 4.63 4%
27 CIN MIA 47 -3.5 21.75 1.4 1.2 0.09 4.62 58%
28 BAL BUF 52 3.5 27.75 2.3 1.2 0.09 4.47 82%
29 TB KC 45 2.5 23.75 1.6 1.2 0.09 4.45 98%
30 SEA @DET 50 5 27.5 2.1 1.2 0.09 4.35 4%
31 JAC @PHI 48.5 6.5 27.5 2.2 1.1 0.08 4.15 4%
32 WAS @DAL 42.5 3.5 23 1.3 1.1 0.08 4.00 4%

 

Matchups

  1. PIT vs NYJ: Zach Wilson is expected to start for the Jets this week, for the first time this season following an injury in the Preseason. Wilson started 13 games as a rookie in 2021, wherein he took a lot of sacks, and didn’t throw many touchdowns, but didn’t throw many interceptions either. With a low point projection of 19 and some nice upside from sacks, this is a good spot for Pittsburgh at home.
  2. GB vs NE: Patriots QB Mac Jones will miss multiple games with a high ankle sprain he suffered last week, meaning Brian Hoyer will start for the Patriots. Hoyer the Destroyer has been in the league for over a decade, and has been a backup for most of that time. It’s hard to be very confident in predicting how he’ll play based on years-old results with totally different supporting casts. It is easy nonetheless to be confident starting the Packers this week, with a rock-bottom 14.5 projected points allowed.
  3. NYG vs CHI: The Texans’ defense had a good fantasy day last week thanks to sacking Bears QB Justin Fields five times. The Giants are far from the best defense in the league, but they aren’t bad enough that I would have doubts about starting them in a matchup this good at home.
  4. IND vs TEN: The Ryan Tannehill-led Titans are a run-first offense, and the Colts Football Outsiders rates them as the second-best run defense in the league so far. So this isn’t a play that comes with a ton of upside with respect to turnovers and sacks, but I’m expecting a poor offensive performance anyway.
  5. LV vs DEN: When a team has a projected point total in the neighborhood of 14 or 15, that is usually the lowest of the week. Through three games, the Russell Wilson-led Broncos have scored an average of just 14.3 points per game. For me, this is both a pain and a delight. Painful because I’m a Broncos fan and I like Wilson, but a delight because it further validates my opinion of the Broncos’ leadership, and it means they’re shaping up to be another top-tier DST target. Wilson has always taken a lot of sacks even when playing well, so a Wilson who can’t score means the Raiders should be a very good play this week.
  6. CHI @ NYG: When the over/under for a game is less than 40, unless one team is heavily favored (like in NE@GB this week), it’s typical for both teams to be viable as fantasy defenses. Daniel Jones is a middling quarterback, but he’s one who’s taken nearly 3 sacks per game in his career, so the Bears are a solid play this week.
  7. DET vs SEA: Speaking of middling offenses, the Geno Smith-led Seahawks had their best game yet last week, but that still only meant 23 points. The Seahawks are a team I feel fine about starting most defenses against, especially when that defense is at home, as the Lions are this week.
  8. SF vs LAR: The Rams rank third in DST fantasy points allowed so far this year, thanks largely to Matthew Stafford throwing five interceptions in the first two weeks. That calmed down last week against the Cardinals, but so did scoring – Stafford failed to throw a passing touchdown, leading the team to just 12 points. The Rams are shaping up to be a solid DST target this year, and one with serious upside in the event that another game like Week 1’s 3-interception/7-sack performance happens.
  9. LAC @ HOU: The Davis Mills-led Texans are another in a pretty long list of bad-but-not-apocalyptically-so offenses that I’m happy to target with most defenses, especially on the road.
  10. DAL vs WAS: Commanders QB Carson Wentz took an incredible 9 sacks last week against his former team. That may have been personal, but it’s indicative of the type of player Wentz is. Like Russell Wilson, Wentz takes a lot of sacks even when he’s playing well. When he isn’t playing well, that can add up to an incredible day for the opposing defense. There’s certainly a risk that Washington goes back to scoring 25+ points, but on the road against a good Cowboys defense, that risk feels appropriate for the tail end of my top-10.

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Jacob Herlin is a Data Scientist for FantasyPros. For more from Jacob, check out his archive and follow him @jacoblawherlin.

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