Fantasy Football Week 1 NFL Pace & Efficiency Preview (2022)

Welcome to FantasyPros’ weekly pace and efficiency report. Each week of the season, we’ll survey trends in snap count totals while examining pace and efficiency data. Opportunity is king in fantasy football, and teams that run more plays have more opportunities to score fantasy points. Snap counts are the product of pace and efficiency, so examining each factor provides insight into future game environments, changes in coaching philosophy, and offensive growth or decline throughout the season.

Teams Projected for High Week 1 Snap Counts

New York Giants

I’m expecting the Giants to run a much faster pace this year due to hiring former Bills Offensive Coordinator Brian Daboll as their Head Coach. Under Daboll, the Bills ranked third and ninth in snaps/60 minutes and neutral situation seconds/snap, respectively. In addition, their Week 1 opponent is the Tennesse Titans, who played a fast-paced offense in 2021. If the Giants can keep up, this game could be a sneaky bet for a shootout.

Carolina Panthers

Though the Panthers were not a good team last year, they ranked 9th in snaps/60 minutes and were in the middle of the pack in neutral situation seconds/snap. I expect both of these metrics to increase due to a healthy Christian McCaffrey and an upgrade at QB in Baker Mayfield. They also face off against the Cleveland Browns, who now will start Jacoby Brissett at QB. It is my expectation that the offense will be worse under Brissett, leading to fewer snaps for the Browns and, in turn, more for Carolina.

Teams Projected for Low Week 1 Snap Counts

Houston Texans

This one could get ugly for the Texans quickly. Houston finished with the third-fewest snaps/game and took the 10th slowest time to snap the ball in 2021. They open their season against the Indianapolis Colts, who also ran a slow-paced offense last year but, unlike Houston, were much more efficient. Houston ranked 31st in CES last year while the Colts ranked 14th, and now Indianapolis will receive a theoretical upgrade at QB with Matt Ryan. This game figures to be slow and short and should produce a few plays run by the Texans.

Seattle Seahawks

The Seahawks are going to be in this section of the article quite a bit this season. They finished dead last in snaps/60 minutes at 55.4. The next closest team was the Falcons with 59.2. They now will play 2022 sans Russell Wilson. With the former Super Bowl champion gone, Carroll will likely look to establish it more than ever before. Thus, there’s a reality where they run even fewer plays than last year. They will play the Broncos on Monday Night Football, a team that didn’t play particularly quick or efficient last year, but will see the former Seahawk Russell Wilson as their signal caller. This game profiles as a low-scoring blowout in the favor of the Broncos.

New York Jets

I want to be “in” on the Jets as much as anyone else, but it might have to wait as their Week 1 outlook is as poor as any team in the NFL. They host Baltimore, who led the league in snaps/60 minutes last year. Their efficiency trailed expectations, but this is likely due to the slew of injuries they suffered in 2021, so I expect them to be much more efficient this season. The Jets, on the other hand, ranked 25th in CES, ran a medium pace, and will now play Joe Flacco at QB in Week 1. This all screams a low snap count for the Jets.

*Data from the table comes from as follows: Pro Football Reference, NFL Team Rankings, Football Outsiders, NFL Yards-Per-Play Stats, and RBSDM.com. 

**Composite Efficiency Score is a statistic I created using regression analysis of the efficiency metrics on the table.