Yuck. That’s the first word that comes to mind when thinking about this week’s Thursday Night Football contest. Still, after last week’s wretched game, NFL fans should be calloused to disgusting football. Besides, building showdown lineups for DFS is one way to spice up the contest. So, the following players should be on gamers’ radars.
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Game: Washington Commanders at Chicago Bears
Spread: WSH -1.0 Points
Over/Under: 39.5 Points
Commanders Analysis: Carson Wentz has played dreadful real-life football. Nevertheless, he's passed for more than 300 yards and multiple touchdowns in three games this year. So, Wentz is a viable option, despite his sack-taking and interception-throwing deficiencies.
Unfortunately, the matchup is challenging. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bears have allowed the ninth-fewest passing yards per game (197.2) and are tied for the fourth-fewest touchdown passes yielded (four) this season. In addition, according to Football Outsiders, the Bears are 15th in pass defense Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). So, Wentz isn't a must-use player, even if he's a defensible pick.
Washington's backfield is a mess. In Week 5, Brian Robinson played 29% of the snaps, Antonio Gibson played 32% and J.D. McKissic led the way at 41%. Further, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Robinson ran five routes, Gibson ran 12 and McKissic ran 22 last week. So McKissic is the team's pass-catching back, and Robinson and Gibson are jostling for early-down work.
Therefore, McKissic's role is the most intriguing. It also hasn't helped that Washington's line has stunk at run blocking, ranking dead last in Adjusted Line Yards (3.78), per Football Outsiders. Finally, McKissic's caught at least three passes in every game this year, reaching five and exceeding 30 receiving yards in three contests. No, he's not exciting. Still, McKissic is an adequate option.
Washington's offense has also leaned into the pass. In neutral game scripts, their non-quarterbacks have attempted 57 rushes, and they've passed 90 times. So, their offensive tendencies favor McKissic and the pass-catchers listed on the table, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel.
McLaurin is the higher ceiling and more volatile option of the two highlighted wideouts. However, the field-stretching wideout has quietly had at least 75 receiving yards or a touchdown in four games. Moreover, according to PFF, McLaurin has had a reasonable 12.8-yard Average Depth of Target (aDOT) the last two weeks, deep enough to do damage but not so deep each pass from Wentz is a prayer.
Conversely, Samuel has been the shallow option, racking up receptions in bunches. The versatile wideout has had a 6.7-yard aDOT the last two weeks and 4.5 yards for the season. As a result, Samuel has had at least seven targets and four receptions in every game this year, and he's rushed the ball eight times, albeit zero times in the previous two games. However, Samuel has had fewer than 65 scrimmage yards and zero touchdowns in three straight games. So, he's a decent choice but not the sexiest pick.
Washington's defense has a tasty matchup. According to StatHead, Justin Fields has had the highest sack rate (13.11%) among quarterbacks, with at least 200 pass attempts since 2021, approximately 3.5% higher than the second-highest mark. Fields has also had the highest interception rate (3.9%). Finally, according to Pro-Football-Reference, the Commanders have had the fourth-highest pressure rate (27.9%) this season.
Bears Analysis: David Montgomery returned last week from a one-game absence and reprised his feature-back role, playing 72% of the offensive snaps versus just 28% for Khalil Herbert. Additionally, Montgomery has had at least 16 touches in all three games he was healthy enough to finish this year. He caught multiple passes in those three games and had more than 80 scrimmage yards in two of them.
Chicago's offensive tendencies are good for Montgomery, too. In neutral game scripts in Week 1, Week 2 and Week 5, Fields attempted just 31 passes, and Montgomery ran 23 times, with Herbert soaking up a dozen rushes. So, Montgomery should be busy in a game that projects to be close.
Fields has been a weapon on the ground this year. He's rushed for at least 47 yards in the last three weeks and ran for 20 yards and a touchdown in Week 2. Fields is also coming off of his two highest-volume games in the last two weeks, albeit attempting just 22 passes and 21. Still, Fields has thrown for 382 yards and one touchdown with zero interceptions in Week 4 and Week 5. The second-year quarterback isn't a world-beater, but his rushing contributions and uptick in passing production are good enough to warrant usage on this showdown slate.
Darnell Mooney might seem like a curious absence on Chicago's table. But, unfortunately, the vertical wideout's usage is a poor fit for this matchup. Quarterbacks have attempted 34 passes of at least 15 Air Yards against the Commanders this year, completing only 14 (41.2%) for 473 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Perhaps, Washington's top-shelf pressure is the reason for their success limiting effectiveness downfield. Regardless, Mooney can be faded because of the matchup.
Instead, spinning down to Equanimeous St. Brown is more attractive. He's run the third-most routes (52) for the Bears the last two weeks, only eight fewer than Mooney. Sadly, ESB has had only two receptions for 33 scoreless yards, but being on the field and running routes is half the battle. Moreover, St. Brown's four targets in the past two weeks have tied for the third-most on the Bears.
The matchup is good, too. According to Football Outsiders, the Commanders have allowed the second-most receiving yards per game (73.1) to No. 2 wideouts, and ESB appears to fit the bill as Chicago's No. 2 wideout.
N'Keal Harry has been activated from Injured Reserve. Unfortunately, he's on the injury report. Still, Harry was at least a limited participant in practice on Tuesday. Harry could force himself into the mix for playing time since Chicago's wide receivers have underperformed. Further, Fields noted Harry could help the team in the red zone as a big-bodied target to which he could throw 50-50 balls. Thus, Harry is an interesting option for the minimum salary at DraftKings and FanDuel.
Finally, Chicago's defense is on the radar against the Commanders. Wentz has taken 20 sacks and turned the ball over seven times this year. It also could have been worse since he's lost only one of six fumbles this season.
Final Thoughts: This slate is gross. In fact, it's so disgusting that using both kickers and defenses on a showdown team isn't outrageous. No, that's not my favorite roster construction. Still, it's viable.
The most exciting captains/MVPs are Fields, McLaurin, Montgomery and Wentz, in that order. Wentz is a must-use in a flex spot on teams where McLaurin is in the captain/MVP spot. Finally, balanced teams or Chicago-leaning teams are my favorite roster constructions.
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