NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 13 (2022 Fantasy Football)
I can’t believe it’s Week 13 already! Some leagues are already into their fantasy playoffs, and the talk shows are all pontificating on the real-life playoffs, which means the end is near (sad face). Thankfully we have six more weeks of DFS to play in the regular season, and some injuries are opening up some fun price tags on DraftKings.
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) ($5900) @ DET
This JAX/DET matchup is already looking like the fantasy game of the week with a tight spread and an early O/U of 52 points. Trevor Lawrence is currently the overall QB11 on the season and is the QB7 in PPG over the past three weeks. Every quarterback (and fantasy manager) drools over a game against the Lions (especially at Ford Field). They’ve allowed the most YPA and the most FPPG to opposing QBs, and Lawrence has thrown 77 passes with five TDs over his last two games. The $400 increase is not enough and he’ll be quite popular this weekend.
Mike White (QB – NYJ) ($5400) @ MIN
Another “too cheap” QB in another domed environment. Mike White almost pitched a perfect game in his 2022 debut (149.3 passer rating), and it felt like Zach Wilson watched his Jets career crumble one White pass at a time. Granted, all matchups won’t be as good as the Bears, but Minnesota’s defense certainly isn’t one to fear either. On the season, they’ve allowed the fourth most YPA and the fifth most FPPG to opposing QBs. White’s price tag only rose $500 this week, leaving room for a lot more value to unlock.
Kyren Williams (RB – LAR) ($5200) vs SEA
It’s been unclear how the Rams’ backfield would shake out following the release of Darrell Henderson Jr., but it looks like that puzzle is solved now. After a muddy Week 11, Kyren Williams had a 70% snap share to Cam Akers‘ 30% and out-carried him 11-8. Williams was also the dominant pass-catching back with a 72% route participation rate. The Rams were dead ducks from the start against the Chiefs, but a friendly matchup awaits Williams against the Seahawks who have allowed the second most FPPG to opposing RBs.
Zonovan Knight (RB – NYJ) ($4700) @ MIN
It’s always fun when you have to Google a player in the middle of a game to see if he’s worth writing about the following week. As it turns out, Zonovan Knight is probably going to be a hot waiver pickup this week and is an incredible value RB in DFS. After Michael Carter went down with a sprained ankle (and taking my DFS teams with him), Knight burst onto the scene with 14 carries and three catches (and even two RZ carries). If Carter sits this week, Knight could really pay off his tag against Minnesota, who has allowed the 12th most FPPG to RBs. James Robinson no longer looks to be a factor for the Jets either.
Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) ($5200) @ MIN
It’s apparently “Jets day” in the pricing exploitation world, and I think this pick is the most crucial one of all. After finishing as the overall WR1 in Week 12, Garrett Wilson’s price only rose $300 on DraftKings, and it’s safe to say you’re not chasing points with him if you continue to ride the wave. In the four games this year where Zach Wilson wasn’t the QB, Garrett Wilson has averaged 10.25 targets per game and 5.8 receptions per game (thanks Jordan Vanek of the 33rd team for this stat). He also is averaging 19.4 PPR PPG without Zach Wilson as opposed to 8.3 FPPG with him. Wilson should be considered an early cash lock, and it’ll be tough to not go overweight on him in GPPs.
Chase Claypool (WR – CHI) ($3800) vs GB
This one’s digging deep, but there could be some steam for Claypool at a sub-4k price tag this week. Darnell Mooney is done for the season, and Claypool had a 75% route participation share last week against the Jets. It isn’t the prettiest matchup against Green Bay, but anything looks like it’s better than Sauce Gardner right now (who was on Claypool all last week).
Foster Moreau (TE – LV) ($3600) vs LAC
Foster Moreau’s price seems to be perpetually frozen in the mid-$3000s despite working as an every-down TE in Darren Waller‘s absence. His game log is JUST shaky enough to keep him as an every-week value, and Moreau is looking like a really good value for Week 13 after almost a 90% route participation share in Week 12. The Chargers have allowed the eighth most FPPG to opposing TEs.