The Giants and Commanders close Sunday with a rematch from their tie in Week 13. The Commanders are the hosts, favored and well-represented below. Conversely, the struggling Giants have only a few suggested options for the Sunday Night Football showdown slate.
Game: New York Giants at Washington Commanders
Spread: WSH -4.5 Points
Over/Under: 40.5 Points
Giants Analysis: The Giants' offense is balanced when the game is within reach. According to numberFire, they've attempted 83 passes, 19 rushes by Daniel Jones and 72 rushes by non-quarterbacks (62 by Saquon Barkley) since their bye in Week 9. When they faced the Commanders in Week 13, they attempted 28 passes, nine rushes with Jones and 16 by Barkley (no one else carried the ball) when they were in a neutral game script.
The offense primarily runs through Jones and Barkley. The fourth-year quarterback has spread the ball around while serving as a game manager. However, Jones has added fantasy value by using his legs. The dual-threat quarterback has averaged a career-low 194.9 passing yards per game, thrown 12 touchdowns and tossed only four interceptions. Fortunately, he's added a career-high 42.2 rushing yards per game and five touchdowns. Jones was also rock-solid against the Commanders in the previous meeting, passing for 200 yards and a touchdown and rushing 12 times for 71 scoreless yards.
Barkley had a tough time finding running room against Washington in Week 13, rushing for 63 yards at an inefficient 3.50 yards per carry on 18 carries. He also caught all five of his targets for 18 yards. But, ultimately, Barkley came through for fantasy gamers who used him by punching in a rushing touchdown.
Sadly, the matchup is challenging for Big Blue's running back. According to Football Outsiders, the Commanders are seventh in rush defense DVOA since Week 8. They've also put the clamps on running backs in the passing game. So, running backs have averaged the fourth-fewest receiving yards per game (25.0) against Washington. Barkley has big-play ability and a secure bell-cow role in New York's offense. Thus, he has a compelling case for usage on this showdown slate. However, he's not a must-use player.
Isaiah Hodgins is a rock-solid mid-tier selection on this slate. First, since Week 12, he's had a 16.3% Target share, 12 receptions, 113 receiving yards and two touchdowns. The former Bill has a nose for the end zone and the attention of Jones in scoring territory. Since Week 12, the Giants have attempted five passes and eight rushes (five by Barkley and two by Jones) within 10 yards of scoring, and Hodgins hauled in both of his targets for two touchdowns. Jones has even targeted him once more than 20 yards downfield since Week 12, giving him the potential to reel in a long pass, albeit in a challenging matchup for deep passes.
The matchup is a mixed bag beyond Washington's excellence when defending deep passes. According to Football Outsiders, No. 2 wide receivers have averaged the third-most receiving yards per game (59.4) against the Commanders. Yet, according to The 33rd Team and stats provided to them by Sports Info Solutions (SIS), Washington has allowed the 13th-fewest DraftKings and the 12th-fewest FanDuel points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 8. Still, they've done a better job against slot receivers, allowing the eighth-fewest DK and FD points per game to them since Week 8, and Hodgins primarily plays on the perimeter.
Commanders Analysis: Taylor Heinicke is the quarterback of the favored team in this contest, instantly making him a reasonable selection. Additionally, he has a soft matchup. The Giants are 22nd in pass defense DVOA since Week 8. Heinicke made the most of the cushy matchup in Week 13, passing for 275 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. So, he's a stellar choice.
Terry McLaurin is the most exciting piece of Washington's passing attack, though. Since Week 10 (when Jahan Dotson returned from an injury), McLaurin has had a 30% Target share, 24 receptions, 336 receiving yards, 419 Air Yards and one touchdown. And, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran 118 routes, was targeted on 30.5% of his routes and had 2.85 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR).
The matchup is tasty, too. Perimeter wide receivers have averaged the second-most DK and the third-most FD points per game against Big Blue since Week 8, and McLaurin primarily aligns on the outside. Washington's No. 1 wideout has eclipsed 100 receiving yards in two of his last four games, including trouncing the Giants for eight receptions, 105 receiving yards and one touchdown. Moreover, McLaurin has had at least four receptions and more than 50 scrimmage yards in his last seven games. So, the fourth-year receiver is in the conversation for the best player on this slate.
Curtis Samuel is the other viable option from Washington's passing game. However, his receiving work is only a piece of the puzzle. The versatile wideout has had only a 10.8% Target share, earned a target on 13.1% of his routes and amassed nine receptions and 101 receiving yards since Week 10. Again, Samuel's receiving work is only a part of the equation.
The versatile offensive weapon has also rushed for 66 yards and one touchdown on 13 attempts since Week 10. Samuel scored his touchdown on a touch inside the 10-yard line, showcasing Washington's creativity and trust to get him the ball in scoring territory.
Having sung the praises of some of Washington's passing-game options, they're the B-side to the running game. In neutral game scripts since Week 8, they've attempted 153 passes and 173 rushes by non-quarterbacks. Conversely, teams have attacked the Giants on the ground. New York's opponents have attempted 129 passes and 99 rushes by non-quarterbacks.
Additionally, the Giants are 31st in rush defense DVOA since Week 8. And running backs average the fourth-most rushing yards per game (123) at 5.31 yards per carry and have the sixth-most rushing touchdowns (12) against the Giants this season.
As a result, Washington should be able to lean into the run to its heart's content. In neutral game scripts, rookie running back Brian Robinson is their hammer and preferred option on the ground. He's handled 90 of their 173 rushes by non-quarterbacks in neutral game scripts since Week 8.
Robinson has also put his best foot forward lately after a slow start when he made his professional debut in Week 5 after spending the beginning of the season recovering from a gunshot wound to his leg. Robinson has rushed for more than 85 yards in three of his last four games, besting 100 in Week 12 and tallying 96 and 15 more through the air in Week 13 against the Giants. Robinson has also reached paydirt in two of his last four games. The bruising running back is an excellent choice and has a cap-friendly salary relative to his recent contributions.
Big Blue's ineptitude when defending the run is grounds for using Antonio Gibson, too. Gibson has rushed 53 times in neutral game scripts since Week 8 and reached double-digit touches in his previous seven games.
Gibson is also Washington's pass-catching back. Since Week 10, he's run 73 routes versus only 32 for Robinson. During that five-game stretch, Gibson had a 10.8% Target share, a 17.8% target per route run rate, 11 receptions and 87 yards. Therefore, Gibson can be a DFS asset in a positive or negative game script. Finally, he has led the Commanders in rush attempts inside the 10-yard line (six) since Week 12, scoring one touchdown and narrowly edging out Robinson's four attempts (Robinson also punched in one touchdown).
Final Thoughts: Robinson and McLaurin are my two favorite captain/MVP picks, and Jones is a reasonable option as well. Unbalanced lineups, which include only one or two Giants, are the most attractive lineup construction, too.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
