Thor Nystrom will be reporting live from Mobile for the 2023 Senior Bowl. Thor shares NFL Draft prospects who have the most to prove at the 2023 Senior Bowl.
Check out all of our 2023 NFL Draft Scouting Reports & Prospect Profiles
2023 NFL Draft Prospects With Most to Prove at Senior Bowl
Quarterback: Max Duggan (TCU)
Duggan has always been a tough, athletic signal-caller with the arm strength to threaten deep. But his accuracy and decision-making issues were acute enough to tank the offense in 2021 and lose the starting job out of camp in 2022.
You remember what happened from there: Duggan entered for an injured Chandler Morris in Week 1 against Colorado and ended up spurring TCU’s shocking run to the national title game. The 2022 Horned Frogs weren’t as pass-happy as Sonny Dykes’ past teams, instead leaning on the RPO game to utilize Duggan’s legs.
While Duggan’s decision-making showed marked improvement in 2022, and while his accuracy also improved, TCU’s scheme was heavily tailored towards Duggan’s strengths and away from his weaknesses. Duggan achieved a career-best YPA amid a career-low aDOT.
Playing with multiple future NFL players – including RB Kendre Miller, WR Quentin Johnston, and a strong, veteran-laden offensive line – Duggan did a good job of playing point guard, but may have been flattered by his supporting cast. His pre-snap reads within the system were superlative – his post-snap reads could be hit-or-miss.
In Mobile, Duggan needs to show that he can go through multiple progressions in a more conventional pro-style offense and manufacture answers when his first and second options aren’t there. He also needs to show that he wasn’t simply being propped up by his exceptional supporting cast.
Running Back: Evan Hull (Northwestern)
Feels odd to cite a guy with 582 career touches in the Big 10 for this category. But it’s nonetheless true.
Hull is a personal favorite of my colleague Derek Brown and I. He was an under-the-radar recruit who got the majority of his collegiate touches the past two seasons on Northwestern teams that combined to go 4-20.
And while Peter Skoronski was on the offensive lines he ran behind, Northwestern had essentially nothing else on offense – allowing defenses to key in on Hull.
Freed from that situation and in an apples-to-apples exhibition scenario in Mobile, Hull has a chance to shine on equal footing. And we think he will.
Hull offers a nice blend of vision, toughness, and agility. He’s not a burner – though the high school trackster should run in the 4.5s at the NFL Combine – but he offers more than enough short-area burst.
And for a guy who wasn’t working behind a great offensive line – Skoronski notwithstanding – Hull admirably did not appear to pick up bad habits we sometimes associate with running backs in similar collegiate situations (*cough* Cam Akers *cough*).
Lastly – and perhaps most importantly for his pro eval – Hull is an extremely skilled receiver. Last year, he was near tops in this class in targets, receptions, aDOT, and snaps in the slot or out wide.
My favorite sleeper back of the past five classes was James Robinson. Evan Hull will almost assuredly get drafted, so we’re not putting him in that category. But I bring up Robinson because I see a lot of similarities between he and Hull as runners.
But Hull is a far more diverse weapon in the receiving game. He’s currently being slept on. Mobile offers the perfect platform for Hull to display his diverse skillset and open eyes. He would be an ideal complimentary back in a number of NFL offenses. And, ala Robinson, don’t put it past Hull to start early in his career.
Wide Receiver: Nathaniel Dell (Houston)
We have plenty of tape on Tank Dell. And plenty of awesome tape. He lit up the AAC for 228 receptions over the past three years.
What Delle has to prove to scouts in Mobile is that he can win at his size in the NFL. Dell was listed at 5’10/155 but is assuredly shorter. But boy can he play.
Houston lined him up all over the place, but Dell will be a slot receiver in the NFL. He’s going to be very tricky for nickel defenders to stay with at the next level. Assuredly, NFL defensive backs will try to bully Dell at the line. On the reps they don’t have success, they’re in trouble.
Similar in size to Tutu Atwell, I’m concerned that Dell will be pigeon-holed as the same player. He’s not. At Louisville, Atwell was more of a two-trick pony in terms of utility. He either caught a screen and tried to create, or he was running a fly route. Defenses weren’t scared of Atwell in the intermediate sector.
Dell’s game has more nuance. He is not as straight-line fast, but he is more skilled, and the objectively superior route-runner. In 2021, Dell posted a PFF receiving grade of 90+ at all four receiving depths. Last season, the only one he failed to do so was behind the line of scrimmage. In two-of-Atwell’s-three seasons on campus, he posted a 90+ grade at only one-of-four depths. The other season, his best, he did it in three-of-four.
Even at his size, Dell comes to the NFL as a proven killer at every sector of the collegiate field. And Dell’s jumbo production was no fluke. In two games against P5 teams this past season as a marked man on Houston’s offense, Dell posted a combined 13-196-1 receiving line.
In 2020, in two games against P5 teams and a third against Cincinnati’s CFP team that featured Sauce Gardner, Coby Bryant, and Bryan Cook in the secondary, Dell posted a cumulative 26-382-2 receiving line in those three games. In sum, over those five games, Dell had 39 catches for 582 yards and three TD. All five of those teams went to a bowl.
College football couldn’t find anybody to cover the guy. Tank Dell is going to ask the Senior Bowl: Did you?
Tight End: Will Mallory (Miami)
I’m almost all the way out on Will Mallory. His last shot to keep my interest comes in Mobile.
I cover college football in the fall, and play in way too many college fantasy football leagues – including dynasty formats. Mallory was a big buy back in 2019. I followed his career closely.
Solid frame. Moves well. Seemingly has skill. But lean in and I’ll tell you the dirty little secret about Will Mallory: He’s a receiving-only tight end who struggles to catch the ball downfield or with a defender anywhere in his vicinity.
There are tight ends in this class who never got the opportunity. Mallory can’t claim that. Over five years on campus, he played 2,555 snaps. Mallory caught 115 balls over that time. Only 31 of them came more than nine yards downfield, on 63 targets. Five times he dropped catchable balls.
Mallory struggles in traffic. Over his career, Mallory is 13-for-34 (38.2%) in contested opportunities. And let me repeat: The vast majority of his opportunities came within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Oh, and, Mallory is one of the class’ worst blockers. He’s a fifth-year entrant who has never been even mediocre in this area. Hope for improvement in this area dies here.
If Mallory doesn’t arrive in Mobile showing an ability to test the seam or catch the ball in traffic, I’m sorry, he’d hit the dustbin for me. Here’s the best I can do to drum up hope in that regard: Last season, Mallory was 3-for-5 on targets 20+ yards downfield, including 3-for-4 in contested situations. Those are great percentages. But it’s also a very small sample size in his fifth-year on campus.
We need to see more of that in Mobile. Because if a player’s only NFL utility is being spoon-fed line of scrimmage targets, he had better run faster than the 4.6s.
Offensive Lineman: Jaelyn Duncan (Maryland)
Duncan is a classic traits-versus-production tackle. As such, he stands to make a lot of money over the next few months with a big pre-draft process – or lose a lot with the opposite.
Here’s what you like: Extremely experienced. Four-year starter. Career 2,631 snaps, with all but 10 of them coming at left tackle. Well-built (6’6/330). Quick-footed big man who isn’t getting beaten with speed around the edge. Mobility plays in the run game, a two-level climber who is a threat to linebackers. Admirable leg drive in this facet when he gets his cleavers into you.
Here’s what you don’t: Duncan’s technique comes and goes, mostly because he doesn’t consistently marry his lower- and upper-halves. Duncan minds his base up until the contact point, at which point he’ll sometimes abandon it to lurch into contact, throwing off his balance.
He doesn’t appear to have great length – long-levered edge-rushers consistently get their hands on him first – and may have taken on this bad habit in an attempt to bridge a gap that cannot be closed. When his base is sound, his hands can be used to control opponents. Too often when it’s not, his hands are relegated to helping him try to play catch-up, a losing strategy.
In the run game, his best reps he looks like a priority target for zone teams, on his worst he’ll frustrate you – Duncan has a habit of hunting high, and he rarely re-sets to recoil into contact, similarly lunging down into it, which allows some defenders to matador him, others to slip him like a bad first date.
Duncan’s inconsistency can be seen both game-to-game and season-to-season on tape and in his game grades. In his first full season as starter, in 2019, he posted a ghastly 40.9 PFF grade. The next year, enormous strides, with a 71.2 grade, and, the next year, in 2021, even more, with a 71.8 grade. But last year, more bad habits started to crop back into his game, and Duncan regressed to a 61.7 grade. He allowed seven sacks, matching that 2019 season.
Duncan is a high-variance prospect that some are going to love and some are going to hate. This is a very, very big week for him. Scouts will have a spotlight on him during one-on-one drills.
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