Analyzing NFL air yards for fantasy football is a valuable exercise for prognosticating what might be coming for certain receivers. If a wide receiver saw a tremendous number of air yards but fell entirely short on receiving yards and receptions, we could make an assumption that will regress in his favor in future games. Conversely, if a player saw a huge spike in receiving yards but did not see the corresponding air yards, that could mean a tremendous number of yards after the catch, which could vary from week to week.
Looking at a player’s intended usage and not just the surface-level outcomes is a way to more accurately value players in fantasy football. I hope you will join me every week during the regular season for our breakdown of the week that was in fantasy football air yards.
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NFL Air Yards Analysis & Fantasy Football Takeaways
Below we have a chart representing air yards and receiving data courtesy of the 4for4 Air Yards App. Air yards is a tool that is now freely accessible everywhere, and you can find the site or format that works best for you.
This list represents the top 50 wide receivers from most to fewest air yards. From Chris Olave‘s 258 air yards all the way down to Kendrick Bourne‘s 48 air yards from this past week. Also included in this list are each player’s targets, receptions, average depth of target (aDOT), target share and share of the team’s air yards.
Showcasing all these pieces of data together provides an opportunity for a quick review of this chart and yields a significant number of takeaways after Week 16. In this weekly piece of analysis, we will dig into the four biggest things that jump out to me from this week’s dataset.
Week 16 Air Yards and Air Yards% Data
Top Takeaways From Week 16 Air Yards Data
Chris Olave Was the Best WR Value This Season
Chris Olave had an outstanding performance in Week 16, catching 10 of his 16 targets for 148 receiving yards and two touchdowns in the Saints’ 29-6 victory over the Jets. He was the main feature of the aerial attack and was frequently open due to his speed and precise route running. He had one of the highest individual air yards totals for any game in 2025 with 258. It’s clear Olave and quarterback Tyler Shough are developing a connection that should bode well for them as they prepare for an improved season in 2026.
In 2025 drafts, Olave was the 34th wide receiver selected, on average, and was selected around pick 75 overall. There were obvious concerns about the team environment, the quarterback situation, New Orleans’ desire to win versus tanking and a host of other factors. But we overlooked the fact that Olave (even with his injury history) is an elite wide receiver on a team that lacks playmakers. Olave is now the WR9 in half-PPR fantasy points per game and has scored fewer than 11.5 fantasy points once since Week 8. He is second in the league in total air yards (1,467) and is looking like he will shoot up draft boards in 2026.
Quentin Johnston is Back to Catching the Long Ball
Quentin Johnston had his best game of the 2025 season in Week 16 against the Cowboys, securing four catches for 104 receiving yards and a touchdown on five targets in the Chargers’ loss. His average reception went for an incredible 26 yards, including a massive 50-yard catch that boosted his air yards and showed his incredible deep-play capabilities that the Chargers have been underutilizing. Johnston had drop issues early in his career, but those seem to be largely behind him. A 24-yard average depth of target (aDOT) is where we should see him on most weeks.
This performance against the Cowboys was a departure from his general season trends, where he has averaged 64.8 air yards per game and held a 22.8% team air yards share (he was at 43.5% in Week 16). The big-play potential he flashed in Week 16 demonstrates his upside when utilized in a downfield capacity, a performance that hopefully provides momentum for Week 17. This is how he should be used, and the Chargers need to make that part of their game plan against the tough Houston Texans’ defense.
Get Drake London a Real Quarterback
Drake London returned from a four-game absence due to a knee injury in Week 16, and he had a limited role in the passing game during the Falcons’ 26-19 win over the Cardinals. He was mostly held in check, catching just three receptions on eight targets for 27 receiving yards, with his longest catch being only 12 yards. However, his 109 air yards were in the top 15 in the league, and his 55.6% air yards market share was one of the highest numbers from all wide receivers in Week 16.
London leads his team in air yards overall and has commanded a significant 40% of the team’s air yards across the season. But the combination of Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins (coupled with London’s injury) has really held him down this season. He has bounced between amazing, mediocre and awful games this year, but not because of usage. His 32% target share is fourth in the league, and he is sixth overall with a 40% air yards share. He is fourth at the position in expected fantasy points per game, but is being held back by a 71% catchable target rate that is 45th at his position. If Penix doesn’t make the leap early next year, please get London a new quarterback.
Why Are Elite Receivers Getting Short Targets?
If you filter the table above by the lowest average depth of target to the highest, you are going to see five interesting names in the top six: Mike Evans, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Ja’Marr Chase and DeVonta Smith. These are five of the best wide receivers in the league, and all of them saw an aDOT lower than 8.5 yards in Week 16. This is a very unusual (and hopefully temporary) trend. We don’t need our elite wide receivers to be Quentin Johnston or Marquez Valdes-Scantling on every target, but these are elite receivers for a reason, and we expect them to create separation down the field. This is where they can do the most damage.
It’s no surprise, therefore, that they all had subpar games relative to the number of targets they received. Minnesota has a terrible quarterback situation on its hands, so some of Jefferson’s struggles can be attributed to that, but seeing Baker Mayfield, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts use their wide receivers this way? It’s baffling. All of these numbers are well below their season-long aDOT numbers, so we will chalk this up to some kind of temporary insanity by the offensive coordinators and hope that they are deployed in a more useful way in Week 17 and beyond.
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