This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
It’s the last week of the regular season, and that normally means a total poop show for DFS, but I’m going to try and make heads or tails of it this week. Make sure you limit your player pool to players/teams that have something to play for. Teams will be resting players, or at minimum, limiting their workload.
But that also opens up a ton of value, so let’s jump in…
NFL DFS Week 18 Value Plays (2023)
Quarterback
DraftKings
Geno Smith (NYJ) vs. LAR: $6,000
The Seahawks are still alive in the playoff race and winning this game would be the first half of a scenario that would get them there. If they win this game and the Packers lose to the Lions, the Seahawks are in. Lucky for us, the Packers are playing the primetime game at 8:20 ET, so the Seahawks won’t know their fate yet and will have to play this game as if it were a playoff game.
This piece is part of our article program that features quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
It’s the last week of the regular season, and that normally means a total poop show for DFS, but I’m going to try and make heads or tails of it this week. Make sure you limit your player pool to players/teams that have something to play for. Teams will be resting players, or at minimum, limiting their workload.
But that also opens up a ton of value, so let’s jump in…
NFL DFS Week 18 Value Plays (2023)
Quarterback
DraftKings
Geno Smith (NYJ) vs. LAR: $6,000
The Seahawks are still alive in the playoff race and winning this game would be the first half of a scenario that would get them there. If they win this game and the Packers lose to the Lions, the Seahawks are in. Lucky for us, the Packers are playing the primetime game at 8:20 ET, so the Seahawks won’t know their fate yet and will have to play this game as if it were a playoff game.
The Rams, on the other hand, don’t have anything to play for except the role of spoiler, which they would love to be the team to ruin their division rivals’ chance at the playoffs. Not to mention, this could be a Baker Mayfield audition. In other words, I don’t expect the Rams to roll over and should be able to make this a game, forcing Smith to play the entirety.
The Rams have the 24th-ranked pass defense DVOA, and Smith had his second-best fantasy game of the year against them in Week 13, dropping nearly 28 fantasy points.
Others to consider: Brock Purdy (SF): $5,700 | Sam Darnold (CAR) @ NO: $5,300
FanDuel
Aaron Rodgers (GB) vs. DET: $7,100
FanDuel has decided to include the primetime game on their main slate this week, which is why we are able to use Aaron Rodgers in a must-win situation. This game has the highest game total on the slate, currently 49.5, with the Packers having the highest implied total of 27. The Lions’ defense ranks 22nd in DVOA and gives up the most fantasy points to QBs on the season.
Others to consider: Sam Darnold (CAR) $6,800
Running Back
DraftKings
Jonathan Williams (WAS) vs. DAL: $4,300
Make no mistake about it, the Commanders would love nothing more than to beat their hated rival and ruin their chances at improving their playoff seeding. I live in D.C. and the week the Commanders play the Cowboys in Washington every season is known as “Dallas Week.” So despite not playing for anything, and the fact they are starting a fifth-round rookie QB that has not taken a snap this season, the Commanders will play harder than most people would expect them to.
With that said, Brian Robinson is questionable and at the time of this article has not practiced all week. If he were to miss this game, Williams would step into what should be a huge workload, albeit against a very good defense. With the rookie QB under center, the Commanders would ideally like to run the ball and keep the time of possession in their favor, and while Williams’ may be terribly inefficient against this defense, volume alone can pay off his inexpensive salary.
Others to consider: Zack Moss (IND) $5,200 | Keaontay Ingram (ARI) $4,800
FanDuel
Zack Moss (IND) vs. HOU: $6,800
Death, taxes, and playing the running back against the Texans this season are the only sure things in life. The Texans give up the most points to opposing running backs, and despite neither team having much to play for in terms of playoff seeding, Moss’ contract situation means he could be auditioning for a roster spot in 2023 — whether with the Colts or another team.
Moss has averaged 17 carries over his last three games, and if he gets 17 carries against this defense, he could put up his best game of the season, and I’ll even go as far as to say he could score his first TD of the season.
Others to consider: Keaontay Ingram (ARI) $5,500 | Jonathan Williams (WAS) $5,000
Wide Receiver
Draftkings
Curtis Samuel (WAS) vs. DAL: $4,000
I’ve already detailed the Commanders’ desire to win this game, but with rookie QB Sam Howell under center, they are going to have to get creative — enter Curtis Samuel. He’s the most versatile of the Washington receivers in that he can line up all over the field, including in the backfield, and he’s a threat to make a house call anytime he touches the ball. Expect him to be used in Jet Sweeps, bubble screens and maybe even taking a few carries with the Commanders running backs banged up.
Others to consider: Greg Dortch (ARI) $3,800 | Michael Gallup (DAL) $4,100
FanDuel
George Pickens (PIT) vs. CLE: $5,900
Pickens has been very inconsistent this season, which is expected for a rookie wide receiver catching passes from a rookie quarterback, and the matchup against the Browns does not look great on paper, but at $5,900 his price just stands out to me.
I don’t often make “gut calls” in this article, but this one is truly just a gut call. I think the Steelers will do everything they can to win this game and improve their chances of making the playoffs, and Pickens will be a big part of that game plan.
Others to consider: Michael Gallup (DAL) $5,800 | Rashid Shaheed (NO) $5,800
Tight End
DraftKings
Albert Okwuegbunam (DEN) vs. LAC: $2,900
Okwuegbunam is another player that will be fighting for a roster spot next season with only $187k of dead cap. With Greg Dulcich already shut down for the season, Okwuegbunam will need to take advantage of this extra playing time to make a good impression. The Chargers don’t have much to play for, having already clinched a playoff spot and can’t really improve their seeding, so despite their sixth-ranked pass defense DVOA, some of their key starters on defense could be rested in this game.
FanDuel
Brock Wright (DET) @ GB: $4,900
Wright is doing what you would want any cheap option at tight end to do in DFS: catch touchdowns. He now has three touchdowns over his last three games, and in a must-win situation for the Lions, Wright could fall into the endzone yet again.
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