It’s game-changing for a fantasy squad’s outlook when they land an RB1 drafted significantly lower than a top-12 RB’s average draft position (ADP). But how can gamers identify an RB3 or lower capable of an RB1 finish? Looking at RB1s in the last three years can paint a picture of the boxes a potential RB1 needs to check. The following players can exceed the expectations for their Underdog Fantasy half-point point-per-reception (PPR) ADP and rank among running backs.
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- Erickson’s Best Ball Positional Primers
- Best Ball Roster Construction Strategy
RB3 with RB1 Potential in 2023
Three running backs drafted outside the top-24 running backs in Underdog Fantasy’s best ball drafts have the profile befitting a potential RB1 in 2023.
Anatomy of an RB1 since 2020
Running back is a position frequently depleted by injuries. As a result, a survivor bias often allows a few running backs to sneak into the top 12 in total points every season by merely playing in all 16 games (15 in 2020) at a rock-solid level during the fantasy season. Yet, it doesn’t paint the most accurate picture. At the same time, using only points per game without accounting for games played is a flawed decision. So, I’ve split the difference.
The following tables show the half-point PPR point-per-game (PPG) running back leaders in the previous three years who played at least 10 games. Gamers can check out the full listing for fantasy leaders in 2022, 2021, and 2020 on our Fantasy Football Leaders page. There were 38 running backs who were top-12 PPG scorers during those three years because of a three-player tie for RB12 in 2022.
Understandably, the best fantasy backs churned out yardage. All 38 running backs averaged at least 72 scrimmage yards per game, and 32 had at least 80. Obviously, there's a sliding scale for receptions and scrimmage yards needed to offset a modest touchdown output. So, 10 of the 11 running backs who were RB1s and didn't score at least 10 touchdowns had at least 82 scrimmage yards, seven had more than 89 scrimmage yards, three had more than 100 scrimmage yards, 10 had at least 2.5 receptions per game, eight had at least 3.5 receptions per game and four had at least 4.1 receptions per game. Thus, there are a few paths to an RB1 finish.
Late-Round Best Ball Targets: Cam Akers (2023 Fantasy Football)
Cam Akers (RB - LAR): 81.0 Underdog Fantasy ADP and RB28
Akers had a dreadful beginning to his 2022 campaign and appeared to be on the way off of the Rams' roster. Instead, he concluded his season with a bang after taking a stranglehold on lead-back duty.
In the final four games of the regular season, Akers was second in rushing yards (345) and tied for second in rushing touchdowns (three) among running backs. In addition, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), he averaged 5.5 yards per carry and was tied for fifth in missed tackles forced (12) on rushes. Akers also showcased explosion, ripping off seven rushes for 10-plus yards and four for 15-plus yards.
Akers also had an encouraging role in the passing game. Per PFF, he was ninth among running backs in routes (77) from Week 15 through Week 18. In those four games, Akers was significantly ahead of Malcolm Brown (12 routes) and Kyren Williams (four). Akers had a respectable nine receptions for 98 scoreless yards, but the involvement was promising for a bell-cow role in 2023.
The Achilles injury is in his rearview mirror, and D'Onta Foreman's ability to return to form from the same injury is a positive data point to support Akers' late-season surge carrying over into next year. Akers's late-season efficiency and potential for a workhorse role are grounds for reaching ahead of his ADP to secure him.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.