In addition to FantasyPros Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR), the Zeile Consensus Projections are an essential tool for your draft preparation. The difference between the ECR and Zeile is that Zeile is based on projected stats from several reputable sources. Thus, there’s a bit more meat behind the rankings, though the ECR is built on far more sources.
Comparing the Zeile projections to ADP is a great way to identify targets and flag players who are being over-drafted. Here are some hitters and pitchers that fall into both camps. For the hitters, we limited the scope to those with an ADP or projected rank of less than 150. For the pitchers, we drew the line at 125 since they don’t get drafted as deep.
- Fitz’s Positional Primers
- Justin Mason’s Draft Day Cheat Sheet
- Players the Experts Draft
- Latest Fantasy Baseball Mock Draft
Zeile Projections vs. ADP: Who Should You Target and Avoid?
First, here are the hitters that the Zeile projections like more than the average fantasy manager by at least one round, divided into mid-draft targets and late-draft targets:
Late-Draft Hitters the Projections like better than ADP
| Player | Hitter Projection | ADP | Variance |
| Randal Grichuk (OF – COL) | 148 | 179 | +31 |
| Jean Segura (2B – MIA) | 122 | 147 | +25 |
| Ezequiel Tovar (SS – COL) | 133 | 155 | +22 |
| Austin Hays (OF – BAL) | 141 | 162 | +21 |
| Ramon Laureano (OF – OAK) | 128 | 146 | +18 |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. (OF – ARI) | 129 | 145 | +16 |
| Kolten Wong (2B – SEA) | 136 | 152 | +16 |
| Bryan De La Cruz (OF – MIA) | 149 | 165 | +16 |
| Bryson Stott (2B, SS – PHI) | 150 | 163 | +13 |
This group is primarily for deeper leagues and benches, but the projections feel they have some upside that drafters don’t see. Grichuk, Hays, and Laureano have 20 HR potential. Tovar, Laureano, and Wong could steal 15+ bases. Segura, Tovar, and Guerriel shouldn’t hurt your batting average, and De La Cruz, Stott, and Tovar are young players with upside.
Next are some hitters the Zeile projections think are being drafted too high. We’ve eliminated catchers from this list as projections are typically position agnostic, and thus catchers usually rank lower since they don’t see as many plate appearances. For the record, the catchers with the biggest variances to ADP were Travis d’Arnaud (C – ATL), who may have trouble finding at-bats with Sean Murphy (C – ATL) on the roster, and MJ Melendez (C, OF, DH – KC), whose hitter ADP of 66 seems crazy high.
In addition, we filtered out Bryce Harper (OF, DH – PHI) as neither the projections nor drafters know precisely when he’ll be back on the field. Here are the other hitters who Zeile thinks are being drafted at least a round too early:
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