Rookie drafts may be winding down, but it’s important to not completely switch off from your dynasty league in the offseason. Now is a perfect time to take an honest appraisal of your dynasty team and consider its strengths and weaknesses ahead of the season. In this series of division-by-division Dynasty Primer, we’ll look at how each actual NFL team stacks up and what buying and selling opportunities might be appropriate.
The AFC North looks set to be one of the most interesting divisions in football in 2023, with the Ravens set to run out a new offense, the Steelers expecting a second-year leap from Kenny Pickett, the Browns will be hoping for more from Deshaun Watson and the Bengals are always entertaining.
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Let’s take a look at our breakdown of the AFC North.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2022 was a poor year for the Steelers who wasted time with Mitch Trubisky starting games before finally turning over the starter job to Kenny Pickett in the midst of a tough run of games, facing the Jets, Bills, Buccanneers, Dolphins, Eagles, Saints and Bengals in his first seven games. This stretch against good defenses yielded three passing touchdowns and eight interceptions. Pickett went on to throw a total of six touchdowns across the entirety of his 12 games in the fantasy season, never managing more than one touchdown in a single game. Pickett’s low touchdown rate of 1.7% was the 660th lowest rate among quarterbacks to start 10 games or more since the year 2000 from a total sample size of 679. NFL average TD Rate over the last three seasons among quarterbacks starting 10 games or more has been 4.53%, and while we shouldn’t automatically assume Pickett can leap to that number, it shouldn’t be surprising to see him reach double his 1.7% and end up throwing over 20 touchdowns in 2023. Pickett’s value is currently a late first-round pick, which could look like a bargain in a year’s time.
If Pickett can throw more touchdowns then it seems impossible that Diontae Johnson won’t benefit. After scoring 20 touchdowns in the three seasons before 2022 he somehow managed zero, despite being sixth in targets among wide receivers. Johnson does need to become more efficient though, as he ranked 26th in receiving yards. Currently valued at an early second-round pick, it would be understandable if managers sought to move off him, with George Pickens expected to make a second-year leap. Pickens had a boom-or-bust type start to his NFL career with six games over 14 PPR points, and none over 19. The plays were spectacular but it was a case of big plays rather than big point returns. If you believe in Pickens then it’s noteworthy that his value is currently around the 1.09, which is an area many people are looking to trade out of rookie drafts. If you’re on the clock and not inspired by the options, send out some offers to the teams with Pickens and see what they say.
Najee Harris crashed down to Earth after an impressive rookie campaign where his 94 targets saw him be incredibly valuable, and the 53 he saw in 2022 might be more representative now he no longer has the ghost of Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. Harris’s injuries and below-average play opened the door for the impressive undrafted rookie, Jaylen Warren, to carve out a role and it’s hard to see Harris ever regaining the 85% snap rate he had in his rookie year. Harris’s inability to break away for long runs makes him more volume and touchdown dependant than other running backs worthy of a first-round pick. Warren had 4.8 yards per carry, which is a full yard more than Harris, along with a better catch rate of 86% to Harris’s 76% and while he might not surpass Harris in touches anytime soon, he will be a worthwhile handcuff going forward and can be acquired for a mid-third round pick.
At tight end Pat Friermuth saw only two touchdowns as the Steelers offense plodded along, a notable dip from the seven he scored in 2021. Friermuth was eighth in targets per game among tight ends with 4.3, and sixth in total yards with 732. If we’re betting on this offense to take a step forward then Friermuth likely benefits, but at the cost of a late first, or early second, he’s very pricy to trade for.
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