In last week’s column, I looked at the wRC+ leaders at the time. Yandy Diaz still leads the league in weighted runs created plus (wRC+), but second and third are now occupied by Aaron Judge and Nolan Gorman, respectively.

Here are some quick bullet points to review wRC+:

• 100 wRC+ = a league average player
• Measures run creation
• Takes ballpark and other factors into account
• Use to compare players to each other regardless of team

This week, I want to look at a few players near the bottom of the league in wRC+ and figure out why they are there and whether or not they can do better over the rest of the season.

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Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: Bobby Witt Jr., Manny Machado, Trea Turner

Bobby Witt Jr. (3B/SS – KC) 76 wRC+

Bobby Witt Jr. has the 13th-worst wRC+ among all qualified batters in baseball. This means he is 24% worse than league average at run creation.

He has seven home runs, 29 runs, 19 RBI, 13 steals, and a .221 AVG. His biggest issue seems to be a low BABIP, as almost all of his important data points are similar to last season when he had a 99 wRC+.

Witt’s .253 BABIP is quite low and about 30 points lower than his career BABIP despite a nearly identical line drive rate to last season. This could be bringing down his AVG and lowering his wRC+. Another issue may be that he has increased his flyball rate from last season while maintaining nearly the exact same HR/FB rate. This could mean that fewer fly balls are turning into homers than last season, which could also be lowering Witt’s BABIP and AVG.

His HR/FB rate should see a boost, with a 49% FB rate, as the season goes on, especially since he improved his barrel rate from last season to 11.1% and his HardHit rate to 41.8%. He added loft to his launch angle as well, which should lead to more home runs per fly ball, not fewer.

Witt’s discipline numbers are nearly identical to last season as well, so as his sample size grows this season, his AVG should climb.

This is a great time to buy low before he really starts to turn a corner.

Manny Machado (3B – SD) 81 wRC+

Manny Machado has an 81 wRC+, meaning he is 19% worse than league average at creating runs this season. This is a huge disappointment for a player drafted typically as a top-five player at his position.

He has a .231 AVG, which is much lower than his .280 career AVG and his .298 AVG from last season. One place to look to explain his low AVG is his BABIP. On the surface, a .263 BABIP for Machado looks low when compared to a .300 BABIP for his career. However, digging deeper, a lower BABIP should not be surprising with career lows in barrel, HardHit, and line drive rates.

Like many of his teammates in San Diego, Machado has been struggling to do well this season. Perhaps he and the rest of the Padres hitters are pushing too hard to meet expectations. This could be why Machado has been so aggressive at the plate, swinging at 50.4% of pitches — his second highest rate of his career. That alone is not an issue, but a career-worst 35.6% chase rate and a career-worst 12% swinging strike rate are problematic.

Machado has a lot of issues facing him this season and just hit the IL with a hairline fracture in his hand. His issues and his health may prevent him from improving much over the rest of the season. Now may be the time to abandon ship.

Trea Turner (SS – PHI) 85 wRC+

Trea Turner has been a major disappointment this season, especially after an explosive performance at the World Baseball Classic. In fact, he is completely aware of this:

His 85 wRC+ means he is 15% below average at run creation and is 30th in baseball among qualified hitters.

BABIP is not an issue for Turner this season — it is .003 points below his career average BABIP with a line drive rate of .5% off his career rate. His groundball rate is not a problem either; in fact, he lowered his GB% from last season and added more to his FB%.

So what are Turner’s issues this season that are affecting his performance? One issue is a major dip in plate discipline. He added 8% to his strikeout rate from last year, taking it to 26.5%, which is his worst strikeout rate since a 44-game sample in his rookie year. He also has career worsts in chase rate, contact rate, swinging strike rate, and a career-high 53% swing rate.

That approach change – being more aggressive at the plate – may be a philosophy in Philadelphia that is leading to more strikeouts because, as a team, they have the eighth-highest K%.

Turner has also performed terribly against fastballs and curveballs this season, two pitches he typically hammers.

All of these issues have led to a .256 AVG, his lowest mark since his rookie season, and unless he can make some adjustments, he is at risk of continued struggles.

Tread carefully with Turner, and if you can sell him for a good piece or a few good pieces, it may be worth it to let him go.

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