The Memorial Day MLB DFS slate is small and starts early. It has six games at DraftKings and FanDuel. And gamers who wish to participate can’t doze off since it begins at 1:05 pm ET. So, before getting into the beer and brats, get your MLB DFS lineups in. Today’s picks are narrowed to fit the slate size.
Monday's Starting Pitcher Strategy
Today's top-ranked pitcher has been absurdly good lately. The second-ranked pitcher is the best SP2 in cash games at DK. He's also a desirable selection in all game types at FD. The third listed pitcher is the riskiest. However, he offsets his risk with the most affordable salary in a high-upside matchup.
Cash Game Recommendations:
Nathan Eovaldi (TEX) at DET
Eovaldi has pitched out of his mind lately. According to FanGraphs, he's had a 0.86 ERA in his previous five starts, totaling a workmanlike 41.2 innings. The righty's 3.34 xFIP hasn't matched his sub-1.00 ERA. Nevertheless, it was rock-solid.
Eovaldi should stay hot in an excellent matchup today. The Tigers are 26th in wRC+ (85) against righties this season. And the betting info is good. Per Betting Pros, the Rangers are -165, and the game's total is 8.5 runs.
Tyler Wells (BAL) vs. CLE
Wells is thriving this year. In 10 appearances (nine starts) spanning 57.0 innings, he's had a 3.47 ERA, 4.07 xERA, 4.29 xFIP, 0.84 WHIP, 5.5 BB%, 24.8 K% and 27.5 CSW%. The gap between his ERA and ERA estimators indicates he's been a touch lucky. Additionally, Wells has coughed up a staggering 2.05 HR/9.
Fortunately, the Guardians are unlikely to provide regression to Wells' ERA or exploit his homer issue. Cleveland is dead last in wRC+ (75) against righties in 2023. They've also produced a pathetic .112 ISO. And instead of showing signs of life lately, the Guardians are cratering. They're 29th in wRC+ (63) in the last 14 days. Finally, the Orioles are -145, and the game's total is only 8.0 runs.
GPP Recommendation:
J.P. France (HOU) vs. MIN
France's 3.43 ERA in four starts spanning 21.0 innings has significantly outkicked his 4.24 xERA and 4.33 xFIP. Nonetheless, the rookie righty has had three strong starts and one dud, pitching at least 5.0 innings and allowing one earned run or less three times. In addition, his 20.2 K% and 5.6 BB% are rock-solid.
France is also a pitch modeling darling. Per FanGraphs, he has a 106 Stuff+, three pitches with at least a 109 Stuff+, a 101 Location+ and 105 Pitching+. So, France has positives that offset his mediocre ERA estimators.
The matchup has potential, and the betting info is stellar as well. Sadly, the Twins are tied for seventh in wRC+ (106) against right-handed pitchers this year. However, they've struck out at an exploitable 25.7% clip. They've also been lousy on the road. Minnesota is tied for 23rd in wRC+ (85) and has had a 26.3 K% on the road this season. And, again, the betting info is good, with the Astros -125 and the game's total at just 8.0 runs. As a result, France is a sweet pick in tournaments.
Top Lineup Stacks
The Rays are an offensive force to be reckoned with this year. They're first in wRC+ (131) against righties, 15 points better than the second-best club. They've also kept their foot on the accelerator, leading MLB with a 129 wRC+ over the previous 14 days. And the road hasn't slowed them, either. The Rays are first in wRC+ (136) in road games this year.
Marcus Stroman isn't an easy matchup. Yet, his 2.95 ERA in 11 starts this year overstates how well he's pitched, evidenced by his 4.04 xERA and 3.70 xFIP. Furthermore, the Rays can rough up Chicago's bottom-five bullpen. Cubs' relievers have the fifth-highest ERA (4.65) in 2023. Thus, the Rays are the top stack today.
- Josh Lowe is steamrolling righties this season. In 142 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers this year, he's had a .352 OBP, .308 ISO and 170 wRC+.
- Josh Jung is a lefty-killer in his young big-league career. In his first 88 plate appearances against lefties in The Show, he's had seven homers, a .341 OBP, .310 ISO and 166 wRC+.
- Taylor Walls has a decent 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers this year. However, his base-stealing prowess elevates his ceiling. Walls has stolen 14 bases in 14 attempts this year, including swiping five in his last three games. Conversely, Stroman has permitted eight stolen bases in 11 games this year.
- Luke Raley strikes out frequently but makes up for it with booming power. In 120 plate appearances against righties this year, he has a .291 ISO and 146 wRC+.
- Matt Mervis hasn't translated his Triple-A success to the bigs yet. However, his batted-ball data lately suggests he's ready to explode. In 36 plate appearances since May 14, Mervis has had a 17.4 Barrel%, 95.0 mph average exit velocity and 65.2 HardHit%.
- Brendan Donovan isn't flashy. He's an above-average hitter against righties, though. Donovan has a 108 wRC+ against righties this year. He's also had a 123 wRC+ against them since reaching the majors in 2022.
Monday's Hitter Strategy
The Rays are the backbone of DFS lineups on today's six-game slate. They have appealing hitters throughout their entire lineup. Jung, Mervis and Donovan are stellar one-offs from other teams to help round out lineups.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
