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PGA DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Primer: AT&T Byron Nelson (2023)

PGA DraftKings and FanDuel DFS Primer: AT&T Byron Nelson (2023)

The 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson is set to get underway from TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. Located in the greater Dallas metro area, Scottie Scheffler should anticipate a lot of support from the crowd that will be filled with family and friends to cheer on the World No. 2 golfer. As such, Scheffler returns from a three week rest period following a T11 finish at RBC Heritage. While that’s a spectacular result for most golfers on the PGA Tour, Scheffler hasn’t dipped below a T12 finish since October, while collecting eight T10 finishes and two outright wins through 12 events. There’s a reason why he’s the outright betting favorite at AT&T Byron Nelson this week, which means he’s also going to cost a pretty penny in DFS.

TPC Craig Ranch has been one of the least challenging courses on the PGA Tour, providing numerous birdie opportunities for players to get red on their scorecard to surge up the leaderboard. Defending back-to-back champion, K.H. Lee, will look to become the first golfer to successfully three-peat at an event in over a decade, while also earning all three outright wins at the same course, which hasn’t happened in over 80 years. The South Korean native is rounding into form ahead of the event, so maybe he’ll overcome the odds and reach the winning podium for the third straight year.

Jordan Spieth’s withdrawal due to a wrist injury headlines the notable withdrawals at AT&T Byron Nelson, while Tyrrell Hatton, Jason Day, Tom Kim, and Hideki Matsuyama round out the top five outright betting favorites. Before we get into my six favorite prospects to target during DFS lineup construction this week, let’s check out previous winners, relevant betting stats, and a course overview to get a better grasp on which players will succeed at TPC Craig Ranch with the goal of cashing contests.

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Previous Winners

  • 2022 – K.H. Lee (-26)
  • 2021 – K.H. Lee (-25)
  • 2019 – Sung Kang (-23)
  • 2018 – Aaron Wise (-23)
  • 2017 – Billy Horschel (-12)

Relevant Betting Stats

  • Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee
  • Strokes Gained Approaching the Green
  • Driving Distance
  • Scrambling
  • Greens in Regulation percentage
  • Sand Save percentage

Course Overview

TPC Craig Ranch was amended this offseason to play as a par 71 instead of its previous par 72. While there is one less par 5 opportunity for golfers on the course, there will still be plenty of red scorecards. Designed by Tom Weiskopf and opened 19 years ago in 2004, TPC Craig Ranch features numerous sand bunkers and bodies of water as the primary hazards, while the Rowlett Creek meanders through most of the holes. Bentgrass greens are a bit bigger than average in size for players to target, measuring up to 11.5 feet via the Stimpmeter.

Zoysiagrass fairways and Tifton rough grown up to three inches comprise the other playing surfaces that golfers will be dealing with at TPC Craig Ranch this weekend. Two par 5s are located on the front nine, but only one par 5 will occur on the back nine on the 18th hole, which will be sure to cause chaos. Players will have to navigate three consecutive par 4s on the front nine and five consecutive par 4s on the back nine, so it could be more of a rigorous test than we’ve seen in years past. Factoring in the weather creates another layer of potential adversity, as precipitation and storms could roll in on several occasions.

Recommended Plays: DraftKings

DraftKings maximum salary is set at $50,000

Hideki Matsuyama: $9,800
Let’s save a few dollars right off the bat and still acquire a blue-chip prospect by selecting Hideki Matsuyama. The Japanese golfer has been resting or practicing since he last logged a T16 finish at The Masters. Matsuyama went T3 at TPC Craig Ranch last year, and he’s also strung together three consecutive T16 finishes or better across his last three events. Matsuyama is a massive value at under $10,000 on DraftKings, so with plenty of time off to prepare his game, I’m confident recommending him since he could wind up with over 20 birdies for the second time in his past four events played.

Byeong Hun An: $8,600
Byeong Hun An has faltered a bit since posting a T6 finish at Valero in late March, but he’s equipped with several skills that align nicely with TPC Craig Ranch. The 31-year-old South Korean will be making his debut at AT&T Byron Nelson and is ranked second in strokes gained around the green, 31st in tee to green, and seventh in driving distance. Don’t fade An despite his lack of recent success and no course history to reference. He’s a quality value play at $8,600, so insert An into lineups without hesitation.

Tom Hoge: $8,500
Last year, Tom Hoge drew a T17 finish at the AT&T Byron Nelson, staying between -4-under-par and -5-under-par in all four rounds. It’s been a volatile year for the 33-year-old American, who has posted consecutive missed cuts since a T3 at The PLAYERS Championship and a T14 at The Genesis Invitational. Hoge is the best golfer on the PGA Tour when it comes to strokes gained approaching the green and he’s also dialed in with his putter, using it as an asset more than a liability. Hoge is among the best at finding greens in regulation at over 69 percent, which means he should see another T20 finish here to bounce back from a missed cut at RBC Heritage. Take the value and plug Hoge into your lineups.

Recommended Plays: FanDuel

FanDuel maximum salary is set at $60,000

Scottie Scheffler: $12,400
I couldn’t continue ignoring Scottie Scheffler. The salary is ridiculous, costing over 20 percent to field him in FanDuel lineups this weekend, but the talent is too much to pass up. Scheffler improved from a T47 finish at TPC Craig Ranch in 2021 to a T15 finish in 2022, so he should continue improving his finishes by cracking yet another T12 finish, which he’s managed to do in all but one event this season. We don’t even need to explore metrics, as Scheffler is among the best iron players on the PGA Tour. If he can slightly improve his putter, expect him to runaway with the win in a field without Rory McIlroy, Spieth, or Jon Rahm.

Seamus Power: $10,500
I haven’t been investing in Seamus Power much this season but it feels like a good opportunity to do so ahead of the 2023 AT&T Byron Nelson. The 36-year-old Irishman logged a T17 finish here in 2022 and just posted a solid T18 finish at the Wells Fargo Championship last weekend. Power is ranked 26th in strokes gained putting, 47th in strokes gained around the green, and performs well on par 3 holes, which will be located on four different holes at TPC Craig Ranch. It’s a bit pricey considering his recent form before the T18 finish, but based on historical form at this course, I’m willing to invest in a bit of a low-floor, high-upside project.

Harry Hall: $8,800
25-year-old Englishman Harry Hall has never been recommended in any of my DFS Primers to date, but he gets his opportunity now. Hall has three T28 finishes or better in three of his past five events, with the other two resulting in missed cuts. He’ll be making his debut at AT&T Byron Nelson this year and could use his putter, which is ranked fourth in strokes gained, as a massive weapon to climb the leaderboard. Hall is also talented around the green, ranking 25th in strokes gained, while converting over 33 percent of his birdie attempts. It’s a great recipe for a T25 finish or higher from Hall, so let’s acquire his skillset with some value attached to it at under $9,000 on FanDuel.

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Whether you’re new to daily fantasy golf or a seasoned professional, be sure to check out our Daily Fantasy Golf Glossary. You can get started with The Stats That Matter Most or head to a more advanced strategy – like How To Use Vegas Odds To Generate Your Lineup  – to learn more.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.

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