There is perhaps no bigger boost than drafting a mid-to-late-round running back who blossoms into an RB1. It’s the equivalent of winning the lottery in fantasy football and can dramatically improve your team’s chances of winning a title.

Last year, there were a handful of running backs taken outside the top 24 at the position who paid off in a big way. Miles Sanders, Tony Pollard and Rhamondre Stevenson were all drafted as RB3s and finished inside the top 13 in half-PPR leagues (I’m counting Sanders even if he technically wasn’t an RB1, he delivered great value).

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Fantasy Football Running Backs With Upside

Who could be those draft day gems in 2023? Since ADP data isn’t exactly useful in mid-May, let’s take a look at our Expert Consensus Rankings to identify those potential home runs who are currently ranked as RB3s.

Rachaad White (RB – TB): ECR RB25

White barely qualifies as an RB3, but I think there’s room for some significant upside. White’s rookie season was intriguing. He rushed for 481 yards and a touchdown but saw a lot of use as a pass catcher. White caught 50 of 58 targets as a rookie and benefitted from a ton of dump-offs, as Tom Brady was constantly under duress. White’s average depth of target was -0.3 yards, which indicates that many of White’s targets came from behind the line of scrimmage.

All that being said, White has a wide open path to starting duties with Leonard Fournette gone. Chase Edmonds and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are his primary competitors for touches. And while White’s pass-catching work wasn’t prolific, he showed enough reliability to earn a shot at being the team’s three-down back.

The drop off from Brady to Baker Mayfield is significant, but I suspect Tampa will have far better injury luck and continuity along its offensive line. White is an intriguing upside back to snag in drafts.

D’Andre Swift (RB – PHI): ECR RB27

I don’t think anyone can argue against D’Andre Swift’s talent. He’s an electric player with the ball in his hands. It’s consistency and durability that are the questions and the reasons why the Lions traded Swift to Philadelphia for practically nothing. No offense to Detroit’s brass, but I will trust Philadelphia’s front office over most in the league when it comes to identifying talent.

It’s funny how short of a memory the fantasy football community has sometimes. A year ago, Swift was drafted in the first round and as a top 8 running back that everyone wanted. Now, he’s an afterthought despite going to a better situation in Philadelphia.

Swift could be a lethal home run threat in the RPO game with Jalen Hurts. And I trust Philly’s coaching staff to use him properly as an outside runner and pass catcher. And yes, Rashaad Penny, Kenneth Gainwell and Boston Scott will all factor into the backfield equation. But I also don’t think Swift has to touch the ball more than 15 times a game to deliver a ton of value.

If you want to cite injuries as the reason you won’t take Swift at any cost in drafts, I understand. But in today’s NFL, that case can be made for just about any running back. Swift is the type of high-upside player I’ll take a stab at, especially as my RB3 or flex.

Khalil Herbert (RB – CHI): ECR RB31

I wish I could be more excited about Khalil Herbert this season. He was a player I hyped quite a bit in 2022, and while the backfield takeover didn’t quite come to fruition, Herbert still rushed for 731 yards and showed glimpses of a featured back in the making. He outperformed David Montgomery when he got his opportunities, and I still believe in his talent.

But then the Bears signed D’Onta Foreman. And then they drafted Roschon Johnson in the fourth round. And suddenly a backfield that looked wide open now could be cluttered.

Foreman will probably be a thorn in Herbert’s side — actually more like a steak knife — which is incredibly disappointing. And while Johnson might play more of a special teams role as a rookie, there’s a lot to like about his game and his leadership. The hope is Herbert dazzles in training camp and ultimately earns a greater workshare.

If he can shake his way out of a timeshare, there’s a legitimate chance Herbert delivers a huge fantasy season. And if you believe the Bears are poised for a big leap offensively, then you’ll likely want a piece of the backfield. And I believe Herbert’s the best back to roster on your teams.

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