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Tight Ends to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Tight Ends to Avoid (2023 Fantasy Football)

Quite possibly the most unpredictable position in all of fantasy sports, tight ends have never been more difficult to figure out than in the 2020s. A real-life position that maintains undeniable volatility, it is becoming rarer and rarer for players these days to provide productive yearly statistical outputs. In fantasy football terms, only six players scored more than 100.0 fantasy points in standard-league scoring formats in 2022 (Travis Kelce, George Kittle, Taysom Hill, T.J. Hockenson, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram). This was down from ten players accomplishing the feat in 2021. If you are unable to secure one of the top studs during drafting season, odds are it will be difficult to have consistent tight end scoring on a team throughout the course of a fantasy season. At the same time, it is probably not worth it to expend valuable draft capital trying to chase specific guys. Let’s go over some tight ends to avoid for the 2023 campaign.

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Tight Ends to Avoid

Here are tight ends I’m avoiding in fantasy football drafts.

Kyle Pitts (ATL)

I, along with many in the fantasy community, was one of the sheep that fell victim to the fool-me-twice debauchery of the Arthur Smith-effect on 2022 Pitts. I will be off of the now 22-year-old until further notice until he can regain and show signs of life on the football field once again. Ranked as the sixth overall tight end on ESPN heading into his third professional season, I simply cannot endorse spending sixth-round draft capital for Pitts at this time.

Across 10 games in 2022, Pitts managed just a 28-356-2 receiving line prior to going down with an injury to cap off his atrocity of a sophomore campaign. Now, much of this really wasn’t Pitts’ fault himself, but rather his head coach in the aforementioned Smith. Smith utilized Pitts as a vertical threat but not much elsewhere, limiting him in an offense that just couldn’t pass the ball vertically, to begin with. According to PFF, 33 of 58 of Pitts’ targets in 2022 were deemed uncatchable, the most of any player with at least 50 targets. In addition, Pitts was ranked 22nd in the NFL in routes run through Week 11, a head-scratching number for a player who has been touted as a generational receiver from the tight end spot.

Atlanta spent the eighth overall pick on RB Bijan Robinson and it is clear as day they will continue molding their offense to be run-first. QB Desmond Ridder should provide a slight upgrade for Pitts’ receiving prospects this year, but call me a skeptic to think he is suddenly going to break out now. Going in a similar range right now, I’ll take Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert ahead of the young Falcon all day.

Gerald Everett (LAC)

Everett could be considered a “winner” coming out of the 2023 draft with no new additions behind him in Los Angeles. Despite talks that he could have been released this offseason, the 6-foot-3, 240-pound big man will get at least one more season with Justin Herbert and company. By all accounts, Everett had his best season in 2022, posting a career-high 58 receptions and 555 receiving yards as the Chargers’ number-one tight end.

I’m not sold on the hoopla surrounding Chargers’ new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Sure, he did a great job in Dallas, revamping their passing attack, but the Chargers were already one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL. There shouldn’t be as much changing in Los Angeles as some think. For Everett specifically, his pass-catching opportunities could tick down slightly with the addition of rookie WRs Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis. Los Angeles did resign TE Donald Parham as well, who should be healthy for the start of 2023 and will mix in as a red zone option. Everett tied for the NFL lead in drops in 2022 with seven, an issue he has struggled with throughout his career. There are many mouths to feed in the Chargers’ passing attack, enough to deter me away from Everett even at his current pricing.

Chigoziem Okonkwo (TEN)

Chigoziem Okonkwo is another name making the offseason rounds in fantasy circles as a second-year breakout candidate. The 23-year-old provided a relatively decent rookie season in which he corralled 32 of his 46 targets for 450 yards and three scores. A fourth-round pick in the 2022 NFL draft, Okonkwo has no real competition behind him in Tennessee.

The main issue with Okonkwo’s prospects will likely come from the inefficient and boring Titans’ offense for a second straight year. QB Ryan Tannehill is set to return for at least one more season, but that shouldn’t excite fantasy managers by any means. Tennessee ranked 28th in total offense last year with under 300 total yards per game, including a 30th-ranked passing attack. Not much figures to change here with much of the same offensive personnel returning for 2023. In a heavy run-first system, RB Derrick Henry will be asked to once again run himself into the ground to hide the woeful passing system. Okonkwo will be left with whatever scraps remain as the likely third or fourth option on throwing downs. He feels like an easy choice to avoid given available tight end options on more efficient offensive teams.

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