Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers: Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray, Justin Steele

Nathan Eovaldi, Sonny Gray and Justin Steele are among some of the biggest surprises of the season so far in that they are performing much better than expected. Each pitched well last season, finishing with 3.87, 3.08, and 3.18 ERAs, respectively, though all finished with fewer than 120 IP.

This season, though, each is among the top-15 qualified pitchers in ERA, HR/9, HR/FB%, and GB%. That has led them to be among the top 10 qualified pitchers in fWAR. Eovaldi is second, Gray is fourth, and Steele is eighth.

The question that fantasy managers want to know is whether or not these pitchers can maintain their level of production as the season goes on. Let’s dig in!

Fantasy Baseball By The Numbers

Nathan Eovaldi (SP – TEX) | 2.5 fWAR

Nathan Eovaldi sits behind just Zac Gallen for second place in fWAR. He has pitched more innings than any other pitcher this season.

Much of Eovaldi’s success is due to his continued success at limiting walks. For the fourth season in a row, Eovaldi has posted a sub-2 BB/9 rate. He has an identical 8.48 K/9 rate to last season, matching the third-highest rate of his career. He also has the second-highest groundball rate of his career at 52%, which is seventh in the league. With the 11th-ranked defense behind him, inducing ground balls at a high rate has been paying off for Eovaldi.

He tosses five pitches – a fastball, splitter, cutter, curveball, and slider – all of which have a launch angle in the single digits. His splitter has a -5 degree launch angle. He has attacked the bottom half of the zone, and with such low launch angles, a high groundball rate should be no surprise. Check out how he has been attacking the bottom half of the zone:

Nathan Eovaldi, 96mph Fastball and 77mph Curveball, Overlay/Slow pic.twitter.com/jMIZ4VdX9A

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 29, 2023

The Rangers ace ranks 30th at stranding runners on base with a 76.3% LOB rate, which ties the second-highest rate of his career. He has a number of things going right for him this season, but are they sustainable?

The biggest point of regression for Eovaldi is likely to happen with his home run rate, which could cause his ERA to balloon a bit. He has a career-low .36 HR/9 rate and a 4.8% HR/FB rate that is well below league average. A sub-1 HR/9 rate is not uncommon for Eovaldi. He has done it six times prior to this season, with all but one coming in seasons of over 100 IP.

Even with some regression to his home run rate, Eovaldi should still maintain an ERA in the low-3 range. He has a 2.42 ERA compared to a 3.34 xFIP and a 3.51 SIERA.

Fantasy managers should look to buy Nathan Eovaldi, even with likely regression on the way. His stuff is excellent and has been impressive this season. Trust the results!

Sonny Gray (SP – MIN) | 2.3 fWAR

Sonny Gray ranks fourth in fWAR at 2.3 and possesses the second-best ERA in baseball behind only Bryce Elder at 1.94.

Gray, who is invested in analytics, has reworked his pitch mix this season. This may be a major reason why he has performed so well.

He dropped his fastball usage by 10% from last season, his sinker usage by 7%, and curveball usage by 2%, though his curveball is now his most thrown pitch. It was his best pitch last season and is among his best this season as well. Gray has also tossed his changeup, sweeper, and cutter more than last season.

Gray’s sinker, cutter, sweeper, and changeup all have a sub-.200 batting average against. His curveball has a whiff rate of 35.1%, and his sweeper has a 41.2% whiff rate. Three of his pitches have a putaway rate of over 20%, including his sinker, cutter, and sweeper.

So far this season, he has a 10.29 K/9 rate, thanks to his ability to induce so many swings and misses. Here is a clip of Gray tossing his fastball and sweeper, how they work together, and the thought process behind his sequencing:

Sonny Gray, Sweeper (ball) and Two Seamer (backwards K), Individual Pitches + Overlay

And Sonny explaining to me why this is his one of his favorite thing to do. pic.twitter.com/IsDzWjLThx

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 24, 2023

All of his pitches have a launch angle of 10 degrees or below, which has led him to a 48.7% GB rate this season that ranks 10th in the MLB.

Much like Eovaldi, Gray is slated for some regression due to his home run rate. He has yet to allow a homer, which of course, will change over the rest of the season. Gray has a career .86 HR/9 rate, allowing more than 1 HR/9 in just three of his 10 seasons prior to 2023, so he may not regress too much.

His xFIP is 3.49, and his SIERA is 3.82, which is more than a run and a half higher than his current ERA. This is a bit worrying, making this a prime time to sell high on Gray.

Justin Steele (SP – ChC) | 2.0 fWAR

Editor’s Note: Justin Steele exited his most recent start due to an injury

Justin Steele has the eighth-highest fWAR at 2.0 and the 11th-best ERA at 2.77. That ERA is tied with Joe Ryan and Josiah Gray.

Steele is having a career year, despite lowering his K/9 rate from last season by over a strikeout per nine innings. He has managed to improve his command, though, lowering his BB/9 rate for the third year in a row to 2.22. He also improved his ERA for the third season in a row, though much like Eovaldi and Gray, he should experience some regression.

Steele has leaned heavily on his fastball this season, tossing it 61.5% of the time. He has thrown his slider 33% of the time. Here is a look at them in action:

Justin Steele, 93mph Fastball and 85mph Slider, Overlay pic.twitter.com/ngRWIMM5aw

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 26, 2023

He also has a sinker, curveball, and changeup but has thrown those under 5% of the time combined. This could work out for him, but it may be difficult for him to sustain his production long-term, being a primarily two-pitch pitcher who does not induce a ton of strikeouts.

Steele’s HR/9 rate is extremely low at .28, as is his HR/FB rate at 3.1%. These are likely major reasons why his xFIP sits at 4.03, and his SIERA sits at 4.06.

If he can continue to post a top-15 groundball rate at 47.8% and can get his K/9 rate back up above 9, he may be able to keep his ERA in the mid-3 or low-3 range.

The problem is that he may not be able to do that, making him a sell-high candidate going forward.