Which players have had Lady Luck on their side recently? Which players has she been ignoring? Which players are riding a hot streak that is simply unsustainable? And which players are just uncharacteristically cold?
Each week in this article, players that are due for some positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance will be highlighted to assist fantasy managers in how to properly view each one. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to try to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
The goal here should be clear. Now, let’s get to it.
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MLB Positive & Negative Regression Candidates
Stats up to date through June 12, 2023
Players Due for Positive Regression
Spencer Torkelson put up one of the best outings of his 173-game MLB career Monday. He clobbered a two-run homer during a ninth-inning rally against Braves’ closer Raisel Iglesias. Then, Torkelson followed that with a walk-off base knock in the 10th frame. There should be more of this to come from the second-year slugger, as he might finally be settling in versus Big League pitching.
Torkelson had been mired in a dreadful 9-for-53 skid over his previous 15 games leading into Monday night. That slump included only one home run and a 29.7 K%. However, underneath the negative numbers, there were very encouraging metrics such as a 52.9 HardHit%, 17.6 Barrel% and 93.7 mph EV. If Torkelson maintains his sufficient contact percentages (87.0 Z-contact%, 80.2 Contact%), there should be plenty of fantasy production to come.
Spencer Strider was hammered by the division-rival Mets for eight runs over four innings last time out, ballooning his season ERA to 3.79 and an uglier 5.15 since the beginning of May. Homers have plagued the young fireballer lately, as he’s surrendered eight of them across his last 43 2/3 innings (1.65 HR/9). Strider’s career mark is 0.74 HR/9, and his 16.7% HR/FB during this stretch is well above his career 9.4%.
The underlying metrics have remained excellent for Strider, despite the elevated ERA. Since May 1, he has recorded a 3.02 xFIP, 38.9 K% and 19.3 SwStr% while maintaining his average heater at just a shade under 97 mph. In that same span, Strider leads all qualifying pitchers by a wide margin with a 74.2 Z-Contact% and a 34.0 CSW%.
Strider has also been trying to navigate quite a difficult run of opposing lineups, facing five of the top 12 scoring offenses in the league regarding runs per game. His other three matchups have come against NL East foes in the Mets (2x) and Phillies. Those two teams have been inconsistent but do feature plenty of thump. Strider is set to face the Tigers and Rockies in his next two outings. Look for improvement to come in short order.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Whit Merrifield (2B, OF – TOR)
Whit Merrifield turned in an impressive four-hit performance back on May 22 that has really sent him on a tear over the past few weeks. Including that effort, the 34-year-old veteran has cruised to the tune of a .366 average with a homer, four doubles, eight RBI, nine runs and four steals over his last 20 games.
Merrifield has had the benefit of a .417 BABIP even though his avg EV (85.1 mph) is among the lowest in the game for qualified hitters in this span. He’s also recorded just a 31.1 HardHit% and .285 xBA. Merrifield produced a .322 BABIP over his first 40 games of the campaign, in which he hit a more justifiable .267. That’s a reasonable expectation for him at this point in his career.
Taijuan Walker is enjoying a nice five-start run at the moment. The 2021 All-Star has turned in a 1.93 ERA and 1.07 WHIP while limiting the opposition to a .186 AVG across 28 innings in this stretch. Before this good work, Walker was lugging around a 6.53 ERA (4.22 xFIP) and was due for some positive regression. However, as evidenced by his 5.17 xFIP over his last five outings, there has been a drastic overcorrection.
Walker has managed a .211 BABIP during this streak of good fortune. That mark is not even close to sustainable, particularly considering his 44.9 HardHit%, 90.5 mph EV and 94.4 Z-contact%. Walker is not a pitcher that can strike his way out of trouble. That trouble will come, and it’s very difficult to imagine his 88.7 LOB% from his last five starts holding up.
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Nate Miller is a featured writer at FantasyPros and a 9-year veteran of the fantasy sports industry. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter @Miller_RotoDad.
