As the fantasy football community gets more intelligent and informed, locating value in drafts becomes more challenging. Nevertheless, there are plenty of undervalued players. In fact, there are enough to avoid overlapping too much with the players featured in NFL Best Ball Draft Values for Each Round. Many of the players in that piece are also excellent values in traditional season-long managed leagues.
For instance, Trevor Lawrence, Cam Akers, James Cook, Rashaad Penny, Skyy Moore, Juwan Johnson and Sam Howell fit the bill as undervalued players in season-long leagues. So, readers are encouraged to check the linked piece out for an analysis of those seven players. Yet, only one player among the half-dozen featured in this piece is a carryover. This piece has two players from the early rounds, two from the mid and two from the late rounds. Finally, the average draft position (ADP) and expert consensus ranking (ECR) are for half-point point-per-reception (PPR) leagues.
Over the course of the offseason you will be able to use our ADP (Average Draft Position) tool to determine players that present values and reaches on popular league host sites. The tool combines the updated ADP for different sites along with our latest Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) to provide players to target and avoid based on average draft position. You can also use our mock draft simulator to sync your league and complete fantasy football mock drafts against the current ADP of your league host.
- More Fantasy Football Advice
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Draft Values to Target
Darren Waller (TE – NYG): 76.7 ADP/76 ECR
Unfortunately, the injury bug has bit Waller in the past two years, limiting him to 20 games. It’s not all bad, though. Waller is priced at an injury discount this year and performed well when on the field. He was the TE10 in 2023 and the TE5 in 2022 in PPG. And Waller was a fantasy stalwart the two years before, ranking as the TE7 and TE2 in PPG in 2019 and 2020, playing in all 32 games.
Admittedly, last year was a down season for Waller. Nevertheless, he was still productive. According to PFF, he was 11th in their receiving grade and 10th in Yards per Route Run (1.55 Y/RR) among 43 tight ends targeted at least 30 times. Moreover, Waller is only one year removed from posting 1.70 Y/RR and earning a target on 23.4% of his routes.
Waller can benefit from a change of scenery this year. The Giants traded for him, and Waller profiles as one of the few tight ends favored to lead their club in targets, putting him in elite company. Health permitting, Waller’s ADP and ranking at the position are closer to his floor than his ceiling. So, Waller is precisely the type of calculated risk gamers should take slightly ahead of his ADP.
D’Onta Foreman (RB – CHI): 139.0 ADP/127 ECR
To borrow an expression from JJ Zachariason of Late-Round Fantasy Football, the Bears have an ambiguous backfield. However, Khalil Herbert has an ADP of 108.0, approximately two-and-a-half rounds earlier than Foreman. So, drafters seem to be wish-casting Herbert into a featured role.
The gap is too large, though. While Herbert was an explosive and efficient runner last year, Foreman wasn’t a slouch. The following table has a side-by-side comparison of their rushing marks in 2022 from PFF.
Most importantly, Chicago's backfield should be an open competition between Herbert, Foreman and Roschon Johnson, whom the team selected 115th overall in the fourth round of this year's draft. Despite Herbert's efficiency last year, the coaching staff and organization never turned the reigns over to him. Instead, in the 12 games Herbert and David Montgomery played together in 2022, Montgomery had 144 rushes, and Herbert had 110. Herbert has the skills to spearhead the backfield, but getting Foreman as a cheap late-round dart is exciting since he can also lead a committee.
Nico Collins (WR - HOU): 158.3 ADP/128 ECR
The Texans hope they found their franchise quarterback in this year's draft, selecting C.J. Stroud with the second pick. Houston's pass-catchers can benefit immensely if Stroud can hit the ground running. Yet, even competent play could produce a viable fantasy option or two.
Collins quite literally stands out in Houston's wide receiver group, standing 6-foot-4 and weighing 215 pounds. Many of Houston's wideouts are small and best served in the slot. Meanwhile, Collins is a big-bodied field stretcher who showed growth in his sophomore campaign.
In 10 games in 2022, Collins averaged 3.7 receptions and 48.1 receiving yards per game and caught two touchdowns. He improved his PFF receiving grade and improved from 1.24 Y/RR as a rookie to 1.68 Y/RR in his second season. Collins also made massive strides at hauling in contested passes. After catching only five of 12 contested targets in 2021, he had 12 contested catches on 16 contested targets. Collins's ability to beat defensive backs on contested throws could quickly earn him the trust of Stroud.
Additionally, Collins's vertical use is a stylistic fit with Stroud. Per PFF, Collins had nine receptions on 23 targets from 10-19 yards downfield and four on 12 targets 20-plus yards downfield in 2022. And among 109 FBS quarterbacks who attempted at least 30 deep passes (20-plus yards) in 2022, Stroud was PFF's 12th-graded passer, completing 31 of 61 attempts for 1,082 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions.
Collins is unlikely to be a target hog. Still, his 22.4% targets per route run last year was rock-solid, and his 12.8-yard average depth of target (aDOT) gives him home-run potential. The third-year pro could become a fantasy asset with another step forward. So, instead of taking a boring veteran bereft of upside and similar to other players who will be undrafted, gamers should take a swing on Collins and cut him loose for a hot waiver option if he doesn't pan out.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.