While the 2023 NFL regular season is still a few months away, now is the time to prepare for the fantasy season. Plenty will change between now and the end of August. However, one of the toughest things fantasy players have to do is make tough decisions between two players with a similar average draft position (ADP).
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The first set is Davante Adams (ADP: 13.6 | WR9) and Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP: 14.1 | WR10).
The Argument for Davante Adams
After spending the first eight years of his career with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, Adams spent last season with the Las Vegas Raiders. While some were worried the superstar wouldn’t put up the same elite numbers with Derek Carr, Adams actually saw a career-high 180 targets in 2022. Furthermore, the veteran had the second-most touchdowns of his career (14). More importantly, the superstar receiver was the WR3 last year, averaging 16.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game.
Adams has been one of the top wide receivers in the NFL over the past several years. He has three consecutive seasons with at least 100 receptions. Furthermore, the veteran has back-to-back years with over 1,500 receiving yards. Meanwhile, the Raiders added Jakobi Meyers in free agency. However, they also traded away Darren Waller. Hunter Renfrow‘s name has reportedly been floated around the trade market too. Adams will remain the high-target volume WR1 for Las Vegas regardless of who else is on the field.
The Argument for Amon-Ra St. Brown
Despite being a fourth-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, St. Brown has become one of the top wide receivers in fantasy football. He ended his rookie season on fire, averaging 20.9 half-point PPR fantasy points per game over the final six weeks. The rookie was the WR2 during those six weeks, averaging only 1.7 fantasy points per game less than Cooper Kupp. Yet, the fantasy community underestimated the talented receiver heading into last season.
The former USC star was the WR8 in 2022, averaging 13.4 fantasy points per game. However, St. Brown missed the Week 4 matchup with an injury and only played 17% of the snaps in Week 7. The second-year receiver had only 0.9 fantasy points in that Week 7 contest. Removing that game from his year-long production, St. Brown averaged 14.3 fantasy points per game. More importantly, the former USC star finished ninth in the league in targets (146) but sixth in receptions (106).
The Verdict
Many believe Adams proved he is quarterback proof last year playing with Derek Carr. However, will the superstar receiver see the same target volume with Jimmy Garoppolo? Furthermore, will Garoppolo be the starting quarterback for Las Vegas this season? The veteran quarterback is still healing from a foot injury he suffered last year with the San Francisco 49ers. While the quarterback situation isn’t a reason to put Adams on your do-not-draft list, it is a concern.
Last year St. Brown had more than double the targets of anyone else on the team. Furthermore, he had 82 more targets than any other wide receiver. Yet, the Lions weren’t aggressive in free agency. Instead, they signed Marvin Jones Jr. to a one-year contract. Meanwhile, they waited until the seventh round of the NFL Draft to select a wide receiver. However, Detroit did spend two early draft picks on pass catchers – Jahmyr Gibbs and Sam LaPorta.
Both wide receivers are worthy of their top-10 status. However, Adams comes with more risk. The Raiders made multiple changes this offseason on offense. Not only did they make the switch at quarterback, but they swapped Waller for Meyers. However, the team also signed Austin Hooper and drafted Michael Mayer with an early second-round pick. Adams had 180 targets last year, a career-high. Yet, the veteran caught only 55.6% of his targets, the lowest percentage of his career since his sophomore season.
Meanwhile, St. Brown should have another high target volume season. While the Lions added Gibbs and LaPorta during the NFL Draft, the team lost over 165 targets from last year’s team. One of those players is D’Andre Swift. The running back finished second on the team with 70 targets. Gibbs will fill that role, meaning LaPorta is the only real threat to St. Brown’s 28.1% target share from 2022. More importantly, Jameson Williams will miss the first six games this season because of a suspension. Both wide receivers are worthy of their ADP, but St. Brown has the safer floor and more upside.
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Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
