Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what is important and what is not, which allows astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
When we are past the halfway point of the season, we are really beginning to see the trends and who might be underrated and overrated. However, hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition and sometimes underlying numbers aren’t showing up on the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, then take advantage of their impatience. Here are some players that I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season.
Buy Low
Willson Contreras (C – STL)
Contreras has struggled alongside the rest of his team, hitting .249 with 11 home runs this season. However, the underlying numbers say there is not much difference than in recent seasons. His xBA is .269, and his exit velocity numbers are better than they have ever been. I think he is going to finish strongly after the Cardinals sell other pieces.
Cal Raleigh (C – SEA)
Raleigh has struggled this season, hitting .231/.306/.442 with 16 home runs. However, he has begun to turn things around in the second half, hitting .282 with five home runs in 47 at-bats since the break. Raleigh’s average will never be great, but there is a ton of power, and he is hot right now.
Joe Ryan (SP – MIN)
Ryan has struggled as of late, and it is making his overall line look much worse than it should. Home runs have been the issue, and while he tends to be homer prone, he has been pretty unlucky in his home run-to-fly-ball rate over his last six starts, and things should level out for him. He is still getting a ton of strikeouts, and I think he will be fine.
Pablo Lopez (SP – MIN)
Lopez has been fantastic this season, but the numbers don’t quite show it. He has a 3.27 xERA which is way better than his 4.13 ERA, and he has a career-high 30% strikeout rate. His numbers are inflated by a few bad outings, and with the entire division selling outside of the Twins, his schedule is going to be lightening up pretty quickly.
Sell High
Max Scherzer (SP – TEX)
Scherzer is in the news after being traded to the Rangers from the Mets. Typically when a player is in the news for a trade or signing, his perceived value shoots up. However, in this case, it is likely he loses some value going to Texas. Scherzer has struggled with home runs this season, allowing 23 in 107.2 innings. Only four of those home runs were given up at home in the comfy confines of the Mets’ home park. He now moves to Texas, which has the 10th worst park factors this year for home runs. He will have more opportunity for wins in Texas, but it may come at the cost of his ratios.
Mitch Garver (C – TEX)
With Jonah Heim out with injury, I think a lot of people are looking at Garver as a good guy to buy right now. Unfortunately, I disagree. Garver has had a really difficult time staying healthy, and more time behind the plate isn’t going to help that. While he should catch more, it likely means more days off, too, and I would rather him just be a DH than be a full-time catcher, given his health history. On top of that, he has run a pretty high BABIP and is due for regression in the batting average department. I would sell if I could.
Giovanny Gallegos (RP – STL)
Gallegos appears to be the first man up as the closer now that the Cardinals have traded away Jordan Hicks. However, I think this will be a short-lived experience. JoJo Romero has been better and even got the first save. Add on that Ryan Helsley is working his way back while on a rehab assignment, and I think even if Gallegos is the guy, it won’t be for long.
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