Fantasy Football Player Predictions: A.J. Dillon, Trey Lance, Tim Patrick (2023)

Our analysts have put together fantasy football outlooks for all fantasy-relevant players. You can find them on our player pages and via our Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR). These will be updated throughout the preseason to help you navigate your fantasy football drafts utilizing our bevy of tools, including our FREE draft simulator and cheat sheet creator. We’ll cover players in different groups to help you identify those to target and others to avoid. In this series, our analysts took a look at some of the biggest storylines from 2022 and predicted players who could fit that mold in 2023. This means hyped players who busted instead of breaking out, unheralded sleepers who finished in the top tier of their position, rookie breakouts, and more.

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This Year’s Tony Pollard

A.J. Dillon (RB – GB)

This year’s Tony Pollard: A No. 2 RB who usurps the starter outright and graduates from flex with benefits to a top-10 running back

Seems improbable that A.J. Dillon could usurp Aaron Jones as the Packers’ No. 1 RB, but there’s a case to be made that the 6-foot, 247-pound RB will take full advantage of any misstep Jones experiences in 2023. After all, Dillon has always flashed his potential as a top-tier handcuff when Jones has been injured. Most recently, back in Week 13, AJD gave a strong performance with 18 carries for 93 yards and a touchdown, as well as three catches for 26 yards. Since he entered the NFL, Dillon is first in rushing success rate (55%), and over the last two seasons, Dillon has been the Packers’ featured weapon in the red zone in the second half (when fantasy championships are decided). From Weeks 9-18 in ’21 and ’22, Dillon ranks 6th with 47 red zone carries with nine RZ TDs. Jones has 23 red zone carries with two RZ TDs. Just last year, Dillon out-carried Jones inside the 10-yard line 14 to 5 from Week 9 onwards while splitting snaps 50/50 with his backfield teammate. Dillon scored six rushing TDs during that stretch and demonstrated his value as a potential goal-line back. Entering a contract year, Dillon checks off a TON of boxes of a potential level jumper among RBs. The team could easily just use BOTH running backs more to protect Jordan Love. GB was already -3% in pass rate over expectation last year. Their pass rate on early downs was average, but their rushing EPA on early downs ranked 9th. Or Jones just maintains his locked-in receiving role while the team relies more on Dillon as the team’s leading rusher. And should Jones miss time, we are looking at a locked-and-loaded weekly fantasy RB1 that can handle a massive workload. What’s so different about Dillon’s outlook than last year besides the QB change? The offense was average last year with Aaron Rodgers. And yet Dillon’s ADP has plummeted from RB21 (57th overall) to RB31 (93rd overall), which considers the risks with Love at QB. Smells like a post-hype sleeper you should want a piece of. Dillon is being drafted eerily similar to where Pollard was being drafted last season. -Andrew Erickson

This Year’s Daniel Jones

Trey Lance (QB – SF)

This year’s Daniel Jones: QB being drafted outside the top 20 who achieves fantasy QB1 status thanks largely to rushing numbers.

All of my colleagues’ choices in this category are viable. I’m the only one who chose a quarterback not likely to be a Week 1 starter. But if Trey Lance can take hold of the 49ers’ starting job, his high-end rushing ability could fuel QB1 value. Lance has averaged 46.8 rushing yards in his four NFL starts. He has arm talent, too, and the 49ers will surround their quarterback with an excellent supporting cast. -Pat Fitzmaurice

This Year’s Philadelphia Eagles

San Diego Chargers

This Year’s Philadelphia Eagles: All the Eagles crushed their ADPs last season. Which team will do it in 2023?

An incredibly talented set of skill players tied to Kellen Moore is something I will invest in every day and twice on Sunday. Moore’s aggressive downfield sprint fest will put up points in bunches in 2023. If the Bolts can stay off the trainer’s table, Every player in this offense should blow their ADP out of the water. This offense could produce THE RB1, multiple top 36 wideouts, and a TE1. -Derek Brown

This Year’s Curtis Samuel

Tim Patrick (WR – DEN)

This year’s Curtis Samuel: Player coming off an injury who nobody wants but produces in 2023 (outside top 80 WRs, top 60 RBs, top-30 QBs/TEs)

I’m guilty of having overlooked Tim Patrick in the past. He had 51-746-6 in 2020 and 53-734-5 in 2021, and he was reportedly developing nice chemistry with QB Russell Wilson in training camp last year before tearing his ACL and missing the season. Patrick is once again flying under the radar, but Broncos beat writers are hinting that he’ll be prominently involved in the Denver offense. Patrick, Wilson, and new Broncos head coach Sean Payton sat courtside together at a Denver Nuggets playoff game a couple of months ago, That’s no reason to draft Patrick, of course, but it suggests that the 29-year-old Patrick is well-regarded by his quarterback and his head coach. – Pat Fitzmaurice

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