Friday nights are filled with baseball, and tonight isn’t an exception. As a result, the Underdog Fantasy pick ’em lobby has a vast collection of options. This piece narrows the selections to the most appealing five, with a mix of hitter and pitcher picks and higher and lower choices.
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Friday’s Top Underdog Fantasy MLB Pick ‘Em Picks
Trey Cabbage: 0.5 Total Bases – Lower
Cabbage has over 0.5 total bases in four of seven starts. However, he’s had under 0.5 total bases in three of his last five games. Additionally, per FanGraphs, the rookie has only a .250 batting average and an exploitable 40.0 K% in 25 plate appearances for the Angels.
Kevin Gausman is equipped to pick apart Cabbage’s high strikeout rate. Gausman’s struck out 29.5% of the lefties he faced in 2023. Toronto’s ace has also allowed only a .244 batting average to left-handed batters. Finally, Cabbage has hit seventh or eighth in his starts, reducing the opportunities to exceed 0.5 total bases.
Ronald Acuna: 11.5 Fantasy Points – Higher
Acuna is having an MVP-caliber season at the dish. In 459 plate appearances, he has 23 homers, 48 stolen bases, a .407 OBP, .242 ISO and 161 wRC+. Acuna is also a stud in same-handed matchups at home. In 556 plate appearances against righties at home since 2021, Acuna has had a .392 OBP, .233 ISO and 147 wRC+.
Adrian Houser is an unimposing matchup for Acuna tonight. The veteran righty has allowed a .315 wOBA to 154 righties this year.
Matt Olson: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
Olson is another thumper in Atlanta’s stacked lineup. In 342 plate appearances against righties this season, Olson has had 13 doubles, two triples, 27 homers, a .265 batting average, a .606 slugging and a .341 ISO.
Meanwhile, Houser is worse against lefties than righties. He’s allowed four doubles, five homers, a .269 batting average and a .452 slugging to 123 lefties.
Austin Riley: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher
The Braves can smash Houser. So, going to the well with another Braves’ hitter prop is exciting. In 697 plate appearances against righties at home since 2021, Riley has had 32 doubles, one triple, 39 homers, a .290 batting average, a .530 slugging and a .240 ISO.
In addition, there is an apparent correlation between Acuna having over 11.5 fantasy points and Olson and Riley having over 1.5 total bases. There’s also a less obvious correlation between those props. Namely, Houser has struggled with runners on base. He’s yielded a .302 batting average to batters when men are on base. So, Riley and Olson can benefit from that from the heart of Atlanta’s order.
Cristian Javier: 5.5 Strikeouts – Lower
Javier is in a strikeout funk. He’s had under 5.5 strikeouts in 10 of his previous 11 starts. Actually, it’s more accurate to say Javier is in a rut entirely. In his last 11 starts spanning 55.1 innings, he’s had a 5.04 ERA, 6.15 xFIP, 1.39 WHIP, 40 strikeouts, 6.51 K/9 and a 16.8 K%.
Javier has also routinely had fewer than 5.5 strikeouts at home this year. In eight starts at home this season, he had fewer than 5.5 strikeouts six times.
The Rays aren’t an ideal matchup for Javier striking batters out, either. The Rays are 16th in strikeout rate (22.8 K%) against righties this year and have the 11th-lowest strikeout rate (22.2 K%) on the road in 2023.
Whether you’re new to fantasy baseball or a seasoned pro, our Fantasy Baseball 101: Strategy Tips & Advice page is for you. You can get started with our Sabermetrics Glossary or head to a more advanced strategy – like Maximizing Your Potential in Multi-Lineup Contests – to learn more.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
