Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.
In the third part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC South.
- More Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC North | AFC East
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Busts: AFC South
Bust Candidates
Michael Pittman Jr. (IND): ADP 75.7 | WR31
Last year Pittman was a popular third-year breakout candidate. He finished the season as the WR23, averaging 10.4 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Unfortunately, that was down from the 2021 season, where Pittman was the WR15, averaging 11.4 fantasy points per game, both career highs. Last year the former USC star saw his target volume improve, going from 7.6 targets per game in 2021 to 8.8 per game last season. However, he had fewer receiving yards and touchdowns. Furthermore, Pittman’s yards per route run dropped from a career-high 1.95 in 2021 to 1.44 last season.
While everyone thought Matt Ryan would be an upgrade over Carson Wentz, that wasn’t the case. The Colts’ quarterback situation last year crushed Pittman’s fantasy upside. Unfortunately, Indianapolis’ situation isn’t much better this season. Anthony Richardson has significant fantasy upside, but it mostly comes from his legs. Meanwhile, Gardner Minshew might not even start Week 1, let alone half the year. More importantly, Alec Pierce is heading his second year, while the Colts added Isiah McKenzie and Josh Downs in the offseason. While Pittman isn’t vastly overpriced, fantasy players should target Diontae Johnson and a few other wide receivers with a later ADP over the former USC star.
Evan Engram (JAC): ADP 82.3 | TE8
Engram was a popular sleeper candidate last year after signing a one-year deal with the Jaguars. The veteran was the TE6, averaging 8.3 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Many are excited about the former Ole Miss star following his top-six season in 2022. However, fantasy players should look deeper into Engram’s numbers. The veteran scored half his fantasy points for the year in a four-week window. While he was the TE1 during that four-game window, Engram struggled in the other 13 contests.
The veteran tight end averaged only 5.4 fantasy points per game outside of his impressive four-week stretch. Over a 17-game pace, Engram would have been the TE20 with that fantasy points per game average. Furthermore, the former Ole Miss star saw his target volume explode during those four weeks, averaging 10 targets per game. By comparison, he averaged only 4.5 targets per game for the rest of the season. Despite having a top-six season, Engram finished third on the team in targets (98). Meanwhile, the Jaguars added Calvin Ridley this offseason. There is no way Engram has a top-10 season in 2023 unless Ridley or Christian Kirk miss significant time.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator (v2)| Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator | Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator | Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
- Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Mike Fanelli is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @Mike_NFL2.
