Fantasy Football Busts to Avoid: Pat Freiermuth & Odell Beckham Jr. (2023)

Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the second part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC North. Here is a closer look at a few players.

More Fantasy Football Advice
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Fantasy Football Busts: AFC North

ADP via FantasyPros

Pat Freiermuth (PIT): ADP 89.7 | TE9

The 2021 NFL Draft class had an elite tight end prospect – Kyle Pitts. However, Freiermuth was the second tight end drafted and would likely be the first tight end selected in most other years. The former Penn State star had a solid rookie season, ending the year as the TE13, averaging 7.6 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Furthermore, he finished sixth among tight ends and 23rd in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (seven). By comparison, Jaylen Waddle had six receiving touchdowns that year. Therefore, everyone was excited when Freiermuth ended last season as the TE8.

However, the devil is in the details. While the former Penn State star finished five spots higher last year than his rookie season, he averaged fewer fantasy points per game. Last year Freiermuth averaged 7.3 fantasy points per game. While the slight dip in fantasy points per game isn’t a red flag, it shows that last season’s tight ends weren’t elite for fantasy players. More importantly, George Pickens is entering his second year in the NFL. Meanwhile, the Steelers added Darnell Washington during the NFL Draft. Both players will limit Freiermuth’s upside in the red zone, making him unworthy of his eighth-round draft ADP.

Odell Beckham Jr. (BAL): ADP 117.7 | WR44

Beckham was a fantasy superstar the minute he joined the NFL. The former LSU star was the WR6 as a rookie, averaging 20.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per contest and the WR1 on a points-per-game basis. Furthermore, only Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck averaged more fantasy points per game that year than the rookie receiver. While the superstar averaged at least 15.4 fantasy points per game every year with the Giants, Beckham has never been the same player since leaving New York.

Part of the superstar’s decline was injuries. The former LSU star has missed 32.3% of the games in his career, including 58% over the past three years. Furthermore, Beckham will go 19 months between playing in the Super Bowl and Week 1 of the 2023 regular season. More importantly, the Ravens have several weapons, limiting Beckham’s target share upside. He never had lower than a 25% target share in New York, earning a 27.2% target share or higher in four of five seasons. Unfortunately, those days are long behind him. Fantasy players should draft Elijah Moore and Quentin Johnston with a later ADP over Beckham.