Fantasy Football Draft Pick Values: Anthony Richardson & Calvin Ridley (2023)

Thankfully the 2023 fantasy football season is just around the corner. Each year fantasy players want to construct their team with a proper mix of good-value players and upside sleepers while avoiding players with high bust potential.

In the third part of an eight-part series, I will identify two ADP values, two likely-to-bust candidates, and two potential sleepers from the AFC South.

More Draft Values, Busts & Sleepers: AFC North | AFC East
Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
Expert Consensus Fantasy Football Draft Rankings
Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator

Fantasy Football ADP Values: AFC South

ADP via FantasyPros

ADP Values

Calvin Ridley (JAC): ADP 44.3 | WR18

Unfortunately, Ridley has only played five games over the past two years because of a suspension and mental health issues. However, the former Alabama star was outstanding the last time he was on the field. Ridley was the WR4 in 2020, averaging 15.8 half-point PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, the superstar wasn’t a massive target hog. He had a 25.8% target share that season, the 10th highest among wide receivers. Furthermore, Ridley finished ninth in the NFL with 143 receptions.

More importantly, the veteran averaged 0.43 fantasy points per route run that year despite finishing 15th among wide receivers in routes run. Meanwhile, Ridley’s target quality wasn’t very good that year, ranking 68th among wide receivers in catchable target rate. While some are worried the superstar will struggle after missing nearly two years of football, that seems unlikely. Ridley reportedly has shown no signs of rust this offseason. Furthermore, he has become a consistent go-to target for Trevor Lawrence. While Ridley likely doesn’t end the as a top-12 wide receiver, he is an excellent WR2 option for fantasy players.

Anthony Richardson (IND): ADP 118.3 | QB16

Typically quarterbacks fail to turn into consistent fantasy starters during their rookie season. Over the past seven years, the highest-scoring rookie quarterback averaged a QB18 finish. Furthermore, over the past seven years, only two rookies ended the season as a top-15 quarterback – Justin Herbert in 2020 (QB9) and Kyler Murray in 2019 (QB8). Herbert was a high-volume passer, finishing fourth in the NFL with 595 passing attempts despite not playing Week 1. Meanwhile, Murray had the ninth most pass attempts and the second-most rushing yards among quarterbacks. So what does that mean for Richardson?

Rookie quarterbacks typically struggle unless they become high-volume passers or offer significant rushing attempts. While Richardson likely doesn’t finish top-25 in pass attempts this season, the former Gator could lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards. The rookie was an electric runner in college. More importantly, head coach Shane Steichen spent the past two years with Jalen Hurts, turning the quarterback into a fantasy star. In his first year as the starter, Hurts was the QB9, averaging 20.8 fantasy points per game. He had 139 rushing attempts for 784 yards and 10 touchdowns that year. If Richardson starts all season, the former Gator could have similar production.