Here at FantasyPros, we have consensus projections for all fantasy-relevant positions. You can filter them to see which sites are higher on certain players, or take the average of the group.
In this article, we’ll take a look at some of those projections, compare them to a player’s historical performances, and give a verdict on whether they’re too low or too high for each player.
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2023 Over/Under Projections: Running Backs
D’Andre Swift (PHI)
Projection: 556 rush yards, 335 receiving yards, 6.7TDs
The Lions traded Swift for peanuts to no longer have him be their problem. Now, the Eagles seem set to deploy a committee with at least three backs, including Kenneth Gainwell as the favorite for the third down and two-minute drill snaps.
If Swift isn’t getting that work, it’s fair to wonder what role the Eagles see him having. It’s also worth mentioning that the Eagles targeted running backs at a league-low 12% in 2022.
Verdict: UNDER
David Montgomery (DET)
Projection: 773 rush yards, 278 receiving yards, 7.3TDs
A year ago, Jamaal Williams rushed for over 1000 yards and 17 touchdowns while playing only 39% of the snaps for Detroit. They saw upgrading the running-back room as a priority, leading to the addition of Montgomery during free agency.
While Jahmyr Gibbs could also have a great season, this Lions’ offense isn’t moving away from being a run-heavy and play-action-based offense. Montgomery has had over 290 receiving yards in each of the last three seasons despite playing with a dual-threat quarterback in Chicago.
Verdict: OVER
J.K. Dobbins (BAL)
Projection: 890 rush yards, 165 receiving yards, 8.3TDs
The Hold-In is over. Dobbins is back at Ravens’ training camp fully healthy for the first time in almost two years. Through his rookie contract, Dobbins has averaged 11.2 touches per game. That isn’t ideal, but there is reason to believe things can change with Todd Monken calling plays.
In 2016 and 2017, when Monken was the OC in Tampa, Doug Martin averaged 17.1 touches per game. In 2018, Peyton Barber averaged 15.9 under Monken. When the OC was in Cleveland in 2019, Nick Chubb averaged a whopping 21.3 touches per game.
Monken’s love for screen passes is well known. If Dobbins is finally trusted with a large workload, as well as seeing even a slight uptick in the receiving game, it absolutely could be wheels up for him in 2023.
Verdict: OVER
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