This is an article that fascinates me. Most pieces I write generally focus on a fantasy perspective, but this one is more directed toward the gambling community. It’s also an interesting look at our premier projection system, which is an excellent tool for any fantasy manager.
With that said, I’ve dug deep down into these projections and found some estimates that I disagreed with. It’s an excellent opportunity to bet on some of these wide receiver totals, so let’s look at some of these wideout over/unders. And check out our predictions for running back projections from earlier this month.
- More Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Projections
- Snake Draft Pick Strategy: Early | Middle | Late
- Draft Targets for Every Round: Early | Middle | Late
- Fitz’s Draft Primers: QB | RB | WR | TE
Wide Receiver Over/Under Projections (2023 Fantasy Football)
Terry McLaurin (WR – WAS) Over 73.8 Receptions
Fantasy managers are horrified by this Commanders’ passing game, but this total is too low. McLaurin has cleared this total in all three years since his rookie season, picking up at least 77 receptions in all of those. He’s actually averaging 80.3 receptions on 128 targets in those three years. That makes it hard to believe that this total remains below 75 catches because McLaurin is still the focal point of this passing game. There are also rumors that the rapport with Sam Howell is going swimmingly, and it’d be wise for that first-time starter to feed this beast.
Michael Thomas (WR – NO) Over 67.2 Receptions
This pick is all about health. If Thomas is on the field for at least 12-14 games, he should easily clear this total. That’s been the problem with Thomas over recent years, though, playing just 10 games since the 2020 season. He has been productive in those 10 games, though, averaging 6.5 receptions per outing. That means he would only need to play 11 games to clear that total at this pace, but he was even better before that.
Thomas averaged 117.5 catches on 150.5 targets per game in his first four years in the league. This total is about half of that, and Derek Carr is the best quarterback he’s had since the Drew Brees days.
Jerry Jeudy (WR – DEN) Under 1,050.3 Receiving Yards
There’s some thought in the fantasy community that Russell Wilson will have a bounce-back season, and that will have to happen if Jeudy is going to clear 1,050 yards. I’m not convinced that will happen because Sean Payton has built this team in the guts of the offense. He’s got a revamped offensive line and two talented backs, so we expect this to be one of the most run-heavy teams in the league. It’s not like Jeudy has proven he can clear 1,000 yards anyway, averaging just 765 yards per season through his first three years in the league.
There’s also an expectation that Cortland Sutton and Greg Dulcich are going to take leaps in this offense, which is horrifying since Jeudy has never had more than 113 targets. DraftKings certainly agrees, setting Jeudy’s receiving yardage total at 925.5 yards this year.
More Players to Target & Avoid
- Pat Fitzmaurice: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Andrew Erickson: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Derek Brown: (Targets | Avoids) (Premium)
- Fantasy Football Sleepers for Every Team (Premium)
- How to Identify Fantasy Football Busts (Premium)
- Erickson’s Guide to Drafting Players on Good Offenses
- Fantasy Football Draft Values for Every Round
- Hoppen’s Final Round Draft Dart Throws
- Predicting First-Round Bust Candidates
- DBro’s Wide Receiver Lottery Tickets
- Erickson’s Running Back Lottery Tickets
- Hoppen’s 4 Players Who Could Become First-Round Picks Next Year
- Players to Target in Each Round (v2 | v3)
- Players to Avoid in Each Round
- Late-Round Draft Targets
- Late-Round QB Targets in Superflex Leagues | More QB Sleepers
- Late-Round RB Targets | More RB Sleepers | July RB Targets
- Late-Round WR Targets
- Late-Round TE Targets
- Deep Dart Throw Draft Targets
- WRs to Target in the RB Dead Zone (v2)| RBs to Avoid in the RB Dead Zone | RBs to Target in RB Dead Zone
- Identifying the Next WR1s | Identifying the Next RB1s
- 2022 Duds That Will Become 2023 Studs
- 4 Kickers To Target at the End of Drafts
- Making the Case for RB1
- Post-Hype Sleepers
- The Worst Fantasy Football Team You Could Draft at ADP
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