This week’s Sunday Night Football contest is a matchup between 1-1 clubs. The game’s spread suggests it will be close. The visiting Steelers have a vast collection of intriguing options. Conversely, the host Raiders have a more tightly clustered group of useful players.
Game: Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders
Spread: LV -2.5
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Steelers Analysis: The Steelers in 2023 aren't a throwback to their 70's teams. Instead, they're cutting it loose. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Steelers have passed on 64% of their 58 plays in a neutral game script. Conversely, the Broncos and Bills combined to pass on 61% of their 101 plays in a neutral game script against the Raiders.
Kenny Pickett has had a rough start to the season against two vaunted pass rushes. This is a get-right matchup for him this week. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Raiders are last in pressure rate (10.5%).
Las Vegas's inability to generate pressure has resulted in zero interceptions. They've coughed up 216.5 passing yards per game and five touchdowns. Thus, Pickett can pick them apart.
George Pickens is the most exciting pass-catching option from the Steelers. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran the most routes (30) for the Steelers in Week 2 and torched the Browns for four receptions, 127 yards and one touchdown on nine targets. He also had a 12.2-yard average depth target (aDOT).
The second-year wideout played 28 passing snaps aligned wide and two in the slot. Sadly, that's not ideal for this matchup. Per The 33rd Team, the Raiders have allowed the eighth-fewest DraftKings (8.6) and the sixth-fewest FanDuel (6.3) points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
On the other hand, they've yielded the 12th-most DK (23.3) and the ninth-most FD (20.0) points per game to slot wide receivers. Pickens can break a big play and overcome the matchup on the perimeter, or he can help DFS games on only a few snaps in the slot. For instance, fellow big-play-dependent wideout Gabe Davis scored a touchdown on one of just seven snaps in the slot for the Bills last week.
If offensive coordinator Matt Canada keeps his wide receivers static in the alignment, Allen Robinson has the best matchup among Pittsburgh's wide receivers. A-Rob was in the slot for 18 of 25 passing snaps last week. The veteran wideout had only two receptions for 12 receiving yards in Week 2 but flashed potential in Week 1, reeling in five receptions for 64 yards in Week 1.
Pat Freiermuth has just two receptions for five yards this season. However, one of those receptions was a touchdown. The third-year pro is a trusted option in scoring territory. Pittsburgh has run only three plays inside the 10-yard line this year, and Freiermuth had two targets, converting one into a touchdown.
Freiermuth might not be just a touchdown-or-bust choice in a soft matchup this week. The Raiders have allowed 9.0 targets, 7.5 receptions and 54.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends this season.
Jaylen Warren is Pittsburgh's best running back. Period. Warren played 43% of Pittsburgh's offensive snaps versus 57% for Najee Harris in Week 2. Warren and Harris each ran 15 routes last week, but Warren torched the Browns for four receptions and 66 receiving yards, and Harris had one reception for zero yards.
In addition, Warren has tallied 4.7 yards per carry and 3.03 Yards After Contact per Attempt (YCO/A) on 86 rushes in his career versus 3.9 yards per carry and 2.90 YCO/A for Harris on 607 rushes. Warren can do more than Harris on fewer touches, and the tide might be turning in the backfield.
The matchup is also outstanding for Warren. Running backs have thrashed the Raiders for 135.5 rushing yards per game, 5.3 yards per carry, 9.5 targets per game, 8.5 receptions per game, 43.0 receiving yards per game and two touchdowns (both rushing). Additionally, Warren is game-script-proof as Pittsburgh's best pass-catching running back.
Pittsburgh's defense stole the show in a wonky Monday Night Football game last week. They're not a flawless defense. Yet, they can get after the quarterback, ranking first in pressure rate (38.6%) this year. Thus, they're a stellar selection on this showdown slate.
Raiders Analysis: The Raiders will attempt to run a balanced offense if the game is close. They're passed on 54% and run on 46% of their 82 plays in a neutral game script this year. Interestingly, the 49ers and Browns combined for a 55% pass rate and 45% rush rate on 98 plays in a neutral game script against the Steelers this year.
Josh Jacobs hasn't found his elite 2022 form yet. This is a smash spot, though. The Steelers have allowed the most rushing yards per game (166.5) and the most yards per carry (6.1, 0.8 more than the second-highest mark) to running backs this season. They've also coughed up 3.0 receptions per game, 21.0 receiving yards per game and three touchdowns (two rushing and one receiving) to running backs this year.
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers can eat in a highly concentrated passing attack and adequate matchup. When the duo was healthy in Week 1, Adams led the team in routes (29), and Meyers was the second (24). The former had six receptions for 66 yards, and the latter erupted in his debut as a Raider, hauling in nine receptions for 81 yards and two touchdowns. Jacobs was the only other player to secure multiple receptions for the Raiders in Week 1. Again, the passing attack is funneled through their top two wideouts and Jacobs.
The Steelers are a midpack matchup for wide receivers, allowing the 14th-most DK (15.9) and the 15th-most FD (12.1) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. They've also allowed the 14th-most DK (22.3) and the 14th-most FD (16.8) points per game to slot wideouts.
Jimmy Garoppolo is notably absent from the table because he's dreadful against pressure. Jimmy G was PFF's 33rd-ranked quarterback out of 49 with at least 30 dropbacks under pressure last season.
Final Thoughts: Jacobs, Pickett and Warren are my favorite choices for the Captain/MVP role. Pickens is also a stellar choice. I'm fading Adams and Meyers for that role because of Garoppolo's ineptitude in the face of pressure.
Finally, balanced lineups or slightly Pittsburgh-leaning lineups are my preferred constructions for this slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
