The Lions and Raiders are licking their wounds after getting smashed in Week 8. The betting info says the hosts are more likely to rebound than the lowly visitors. Both teams have intriguing players, but Detroit has the most compelling Captain/MVP options. This primer will whittle the selections to a manageable number while offering lineup construction suggestions.
Game: Las Vegas Raiders at Detroit Lions
Spread: DET -8.0
Over/Under: 46.0 Points
Raiders Analysis: Jimmy Garoppolo returns from a one-week absence with a back injury. According to RotoViz's pace app, the Raiders passed on only 48% of their 120 plays in a neutral game script in Jimmy G's last two healthy starts (Week 5 and Week 6). However, the Raiders are underdogs, and Detroit's opponents have passed on 61% of their 74 plays in a neutral game script since Week 4.
Garoppolo should be busy, and Detroit's pass defense is a mixed bag. Since Week 4, they've allowed 264.0 passing yards per game and seven touchdowns. The Lions had five interceptions in those games, though. Predictably, Garoppolo hasn't been as good with the Raiders as in Kyle Shanahan's QB-friendly and star-studded offense in San Francisco. Nevertheless, he's played well enough to merit usage on this showdown slate.
Davante Adams is Las Vegas's highest-profile wide receiver and leads the team in receptions per game (6.6) and receiving yards per game (75.4), adding three receiving touchdowns to his ledger. Yet, in Garoppolo's last two starts, Adams had only nine targets, six receptions and 74 scoreless receiving yards. Adams is one of the best wideouts in the NFL and has the ceiling to lead this contest in fantasy scoring. At the same time, he's not a must-use player in an offense that's not getting the most out of him.
Instead, Jakobi Meyers is the most attractive option for the Raiders. The wide receiver's salary is too low relative to his production. In Week 5 and Week 6, he paced the Raiders in targets (17), receptions (12), receiving yards (136) and touchdown receptions (two).
Meyers also has the easier assignment. According to The 33rd Team, the Lions have allowed 31.1 DraftKings points per game and 23.1 FanDuel points per game to slot wideouts since Week 4, much higher than 12.7 and 10.2, respectively, to perimeter wide receivers. Meyers has had at least a 65.7% slot rate in five of six games this year, bottoming out at 40.7% in Week 7. Adams' season-high slot rate was 39.6% in Week 7, and he's hovered between 35% and 37.9%. So, again, Meyers is a relative steal with a softer matchup than his more ballyhooed teammate.
Tre Tucker has overtaken Hunter Renfrow as the club's No. 3 wideout. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he ran a season-high 26 routes last week after setting his previous high with 18 in Week 6. The Raiders' third-round pick in this year's NFL Draft had four receptions, 73 receiving yards, two rushes and six rushing yards in the past two weeks.
Michael Mayer is an emerging rookie as well. Since Week 6, he ran 46 routes versus 23 for Austin Hooper. The rookie tight end had 10 targets, seven receptions and 88 receiving yards in the previous two games, setting season highs for targets (six), receptions (five) and receiving yards (75) in Garoppolo's last start.
The matchup is stellar for Mayer. The Lions have allowed 4.5 receptions per game, 44.0 receiving yards per game and three receiving touchdowns to tight ends since Week 4. Mayer is the top bargain option on the slate.
If Daniel Carlson can play through his groin injury, gamers can use him. Otherwise, James McCourt will serve as his replacement.
Lions Analysis: The Lions have passed on 57% of their 87 plays in a neutral game script since Week 4, and Jared Goff is considerably better at home than on the road. Per Pro-Football-Reference, in 20 games at home since 2021, Goff has completed 481 of 700 pass attempts (68.7%) for 5,174 yards (258.7 per game), 43 touchdowns and eight interceptions.
The Raiders have feasted on bum quarterbacks lately, inflating their production against the pass. Detroit's implied total and Goff's excellence at home make him one of the best picks on this slate.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is the top dog in the passing attack. He leads the Lions in targets (69), receptions per game (8.5), receiving yards per game (92.8) and is tied for the most touchdown receptions (three). ARSB is a matchup-proof target sponge. However, his game status must be monitored since he was added to the injury report on Sunday afternoon with an illness.
Sam LaPorta is the second-best weapon in the passing attack. The rookie tight end is a favorite of Goff's. He's second on the Lions in targets (49) and receptions per game (5.0). The athletic tight end is also tied for first in touchdown receptions (three) and third in receiving yards per game (53.9) for Detroit.
Kalif Raymond is the best of Detroit's ancillary pass-catching weapons. Since Week 5, Raymond's 54 routes were the fourth-most on the club. In those games, he had eight targets, eight receptions, 88 receiving yards and a 5.4-yard average depth of target (aDOT).
Raymond's shallow depth of target is a matchup-fit against the Raiders. According to Sumer Sports, Las Vegas has the shallowest average depth of target (6.07 aDOT) against them. Therefore, Raymond is a better stylistic fit for this matchup than field-stretcher Jameson Williams.
Jahmyr Gibbs was Detroit's feature running back in two games without David Montgomery. The rookie running back handled 73.7% of the backfield's rush share without Montgomery, toting the rock 28 times for 148 yards and one rushing touchdown.
Gibbs also ran 62 routes versus 11 for Craig Reynolds when Montgomery was inactive. The explosive rookie had 11 targets, 10 receptions and 60 receiving yards in the two-game sample. So, he's amassed 208 scrimmage yards and one touchdown on 28 rushes and 10 receptions in games that Montgomery was inactive.
Gibbs should be busy in this game, and the matchup is nice. The Raiders have allowed 93.0 rushing yards per game, 4.1 yards per carry, five rushing touchdowns, 3.8 receptions per game, 25.0 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 4.
Final Thoughts: Goff, St. Brown, Gibbs and LaPorta are the best picks for Captain/MVP. However, balanced lineups are my favorite lineup construction. Onslaught lineups with the Lions are also compelling since they could boat race the Raiders.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
