The Chargers and Bears close the book on Sunday’s action in Week 8’s Sunday Night Football game. The game’s spread is lopsided. However, the suggested players for the showdown slate are surprisingly balanced. This primer will highlight the best selections, the top options for Captain/MVP and the proposed lineup constructions.
Game: Chicago Bears at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: LAC -8.5
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Bears Analysis: Tyson Bagent didn't light the world on fire in his first NFL start last week. The rookie undrafted free agent (UDFA) capably drove the bus, though. Bagent completed 21 of 29 passes for 162 yards and one touchdown, sprinkling in three rushes for 24 yards.
According to RotoViz's pace app, the Bears passed on only 41% of their 29 plays in a neutral game script last week. Chicago squashed the Raiders in Week 7, allowing them to continue running until the game's final whistle. Since the Bears are an 8.5-point underdog this week, Bagent will likely have to pass more.
He has a soft matchup when he takes to the air. The Chargers have allowed the most passing yards per game (310.0) and 12 passing touchdowns this year in six games. They aren't turning it around, either. According to The 33rd Team, Los Angeles has allowed 311.3 passing yards per game, five touchdown passes, two interceptions, 24.0 rushing yards per game and two touchdown rushes to quarterbacks since Week 4. Thus, Bagent is a rock-solid pick.
DJ Moore was a target hog last week. He had a 31.0% target share, eight receptions and 54 receiving yards in Week 7. Chicago's No. 1 wide receiver has a cushy matchup to feast this week. According to The 33rd Team, the Chargers have allowed the sixth-most DraftKings (20.3) and the seventh-most FanDuel (15.9) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 4.
Tyler Scott is also treated to the favorable matchup on the perimeter. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), the rookie wideout ran the third-most routes (22) for the Bears last week and had three targets, two receptions and 19 receiving yards. Scott was also aligned wide 53.3% of the time last week, per The 33rd Team.
The Bears also got the ball in Scott's hands as a runner last week, feeding him two attempts for 14 rushing yards. Scott's four touches and 33 scrimmage yards last week were a personal best as a pro, and the speedy rookie could have more opportunities this week if the Bears are in a negative game script most of the game.
Roschon Johnson will return from a two-game absence while in the NFL's concussion protocol. In Chicago's first five games, Khalil Herbert led the backfield in routes (84) and Johnson was second (51). Herbert is injured, and D'Onta Foreman hasn't been a meaningful contributor in the passing game in his career. So, Johnson should reprise his role as Chicago's passing-down running back.
The rookie running back has a good matchup for his pass-catching potential. Since Week 4, the Chargers have coughed up 7.7 receptions per game, 79.7 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception to running backs. The Chargers were more stout against running backs on the ground during that stretch, allowing only 51.3 rushing yards per game, 2.8 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown. As a result, Johnson is a more compelling pick than Foreman on this slate, salary and matchup considered.
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers have a pass-leaning offense, and teams have attacked the Bears through the air at a high rate. In neutral game scripts since Week 4, the Chargers have passed on 55% of 161 plays, and Chicago's opponents have passed on 62% of 90 plays in a neutral game script against the Bears.
Justin Herbert should be busy as long as the game is close and can pile up fantasy points. Herbert is averaging 265.3 passing yards per game with 10 touchdown passes and four interceptions this year. Conversely, the Bears have allowed 249.0 passing yards per game and seven touchdown passes since Week 4.
Keenan Allen is the apple of Herbert's eye, and he's one of the most productive wideouts in the NFL this year. Allen is averaging 7.7 receptions per game and 95.7 receiving yards per game with four receiving touchdowns.
LA's stud wideout's deployment is ideal for this week's matchup. Allen had slot rates ranging from 70.2% to 78.0% in the previous four games. Meanwhile, the Bears have allowed the fifth-most DK (25.0) and the fifth-most FD (19.8) points per game to slot wide receivers since Week 4.
Joshua Palmer is a game-time decision. He's the Chargers' No. 2 pass-catching weapon. Since LA's bye in Week 5, Palmer is first on the Chargers in routes (80) and receiving yards (193) and second in targets (14) and receptions (nine). The third-year wide receiver has a slightly below-average matchup as a perimeter wide receiver, and his health could impact his performance. Therefore, Palmer isn't a must-use player, even though he's a decent pick.
Gerald Everett is only an intriguing option if Palmer is inactive. Everett is rotating at tight end with Donald Parham, Stone Smartt and Tre' McKitty. The Chargers could use multiple-TE personnel more often if Palmer is out since their receiving corps is unimpressive beyond Allen.
The veteran tight end has a decent matchup. The Bears have ceded 6.5 receptions per game, 52.0 receiving yards per game and one touchdown reception to tight ends since Week 4.
Rookie Derius Davis is a rotational gadget option if Palmer is active and could play more frequently if the third-year receiver is inactive. Davis ran only six routes and had one reception for 10 receiving yards in the previous two weeks. However, he's also rushed seven times for 75 yards this year.
Austin Ekeler hasn't shined since returning from an ankle sprain. Nevertheless, he had at least 15 touches in both games since coming back. The game script should be optimal for him toting the rock often, and Ekeler's pass-catching chops should stand out in this matchup. Ekeker is averaging 3.0 receptions per game and 27.7 receiving yards per game this year, markedly lower than his marks in recent years.
The pass-catching whiz can revert to his top-shelf receiving-weapon form in a get-right matchup this week. The Bears have coughed up 6.3 receptions per game, 57.0 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs since Week 4.
Final Thoughts: Herbert, Allen and Ekeler are the best Captain/MVP picks. While the Chargers dominate the top options for Captain/MVP, balanced lineup constructions are the most appealing. Still, an onslaught lineup with the Chargers is viable, and lineups leaning toward the Bears aren't unreasonable.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
