The Buccaneers are visiting Buffalo for this week’s Thursday Night Football game. Despite the game’s spread tilting heavily toward the Bills, it could be a fun shootout. Both teams regularly take to the air, and the passing offenses are well-represented in the suggested players for this showdown contest. Finally, there are a few intriguing Captain/MVP and roster construction choices to consider.
Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Buffalo Bills
Spread: BUF -8.5
Over/Under: 42.0 Points
Buccaneers Analysis: The Buccaneers haven't made Baker Mayfield a bus driver. Instead, they've leaned on the pass. According to RotoViz's pace app, Tampa Bay has passed on 59% of their 278 plays in a neutral game script this season. Mayfield hasn't played flawlessly in the pass-happy offense. Still, he's averaging 227.2 passing yards per game with eight touchdowns and four interceptions.
Mayfield is also catching the Bills at a good time. Since Week 5, the injury-ravaged Bills have allowed 262.3 passing yards per game and three touchdowns with zero interceptions. Mayfield is a rock-solid pick this week.
Mike Evans and Chris Godwin are the top options in a narrowly-focused passing attack. According to Pro-Football-Reference, they're tied for the team lead in targets (49), and the next-highest mark is 23. Evans is averaging 5.0 receptions per game and 78.0 receiving yards per game with a team-high four touchdown receptions this season.
Godwin leads the team in receptions per game (5.5) and is second in receiving yards per game (66.3). He hasn't reached paydirt this year. However, in two weeks since Tampa Bay's bye in Week 5, Godwin leads the team in targets (18), receptions (12) and receiving yards (143), making him an attractive option at a cheaper salary than Godwin.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Trey Palmer has run the third-most routes (59) among Tampa Bay's wide receivers since their bye, and Deven Thompkins is a distant fourth with 24. The speedy Palmer had an unimpressive eight targets, three receptions and 52 scoreless yards in those games. Nevertheless, he has top-shelf speed, giving him a chance to torch the Bills if they blow a coverage assignment.
Moreover, the matchup is good for all of Tampa Bay's wide receivers. According to The 33rd Team, the Bills have allowed the ninth-most DraftKings (17.3) and the 11th-most FanDuel (13.3) points per game to perimeter wide receivers since Week 5. They've also permitted the 11th-most DK (20.6) and the 13th-most FD (15.4) points per game to slot wide receivers in that timespan.
Cade Otton doesn't have an elite athletic profile. He's not a high-end target earner, either. However, Otton tied for first on the Bucs in routes (75) and has eight targets, six receptions and 58 receiving yards since the team's bye. He could have a critical role in exploiting Buffalo's inexperienced linebackers. Matt Milano was injured early in Week 5, and the Bills have allowed 8.0 targets per game, 5.3 receptions per game, 56.7 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends since Week 5.
Tampa Bay's running backs have struggled to generate production on the ground. Thus, they might opt to give Chase Edmonds some opportunities since the veteran running back was activated from Injured Reserve (IR) this week.
Edmonds is also a competent pass-catching back and could siphon some opportunities from Rachaad White. The veteran running back is an intriguing pick at DK, where his $200 salary frees up valuable cap space for the studs on the slate.
Bills Analysis: The Bills routinely lean on Josh Allen's rocket arm. This year, they've passed on 61% of their 248 plays in a neutral game script. Fortunately, Tampa Bay has a pass-funnel defense. Their opponents have passed on 62% of their 273 plays in a neutral game script this year.
Allen should air it out early and often against a mediocre pass defense that blitzes a ton but doesn't generate much pressure. According to Pro-Football-Reference, the Bucs have the ninth-lowest pressure rate (19.9%) and the fourth-highest blitz rate (38.6%). The combination could burn them this week.
According to PFF, Allen is their sixth-ranked passer among quarterbacks who were blitzed on at least 20 dropbacks this year. Allen has completed 67.1% of his 82 pass attempts against the blitz for 609 yards, six touchdowns and one interception. The dual-threat quarterback is an elite selection on this slate.
Allen's No. 1 wideout, Stefon Diggs, is also an elite pick. Among wide receivers this year, Diggs is second in target share (33.1%) and second in air yards (930). He's turned his mouthwatering usage into 7.9 receptions per game, 96.9 receiving yards per game and six receiving touchdowns.
The Bills have moved Diggs all over the formation to create mismatches. According to The 33rd Team, he's aligned wide on over 60% of his snaps four times and played the slot on at least 60% of his snaps twice. The Bucs are a slightly above-average matchup for Diggs on the perimeter and a great matchup from the slot. Tampa Bay has allowed the 14th-most DK (15.5) and the 14th-most FD (11.8) points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Yet, they've coughed up the ninth-most DK (22.8) and the ninth-most FD (17.4) points to slot wide receivers.
Khalil Shakir and Deonte Harty are the most intriguing cheap wide receivers from the Bills. The former had season highs for routes (20), targets (four), receptions (four) and receiving yards (35) last week. Shakir played 75.0% of his snaps in the slot last week, giving him an easier assignment if he aligns there at a similar rate this week.
Harty is another candidate to beat the Bucs from the slot, aligning there on 66.7% of his snaps last week and besting a 53% slot rate in four games this year. Both Shakir and Harty could see an increase in playing time this week, with Dawson Knox set to undergo wrist surgery, opening the door for more three-wide receiver personnel groupings.
Dalton Kincaid is the most apparent beneficiary of Knox's absence, though. The rookie tight end should be a mainstay on the field, with Quintin Morris also ruled out. Buffalo's first-round pick in this year's draft had the best game of his professional career last week, catching all eight of his targets for 75 yards. Kincaid can build on his breakout performance from last week against the Bucs this week.
Final Thoughts: Allen and Diggs are the top options for Captain/MVP. Godwin is a desirable choice for that role as well. Kincaid is a sneaky contrarian pick for Captain/MVP, too.
Balanced lineups are my favorite lineup construction on this slate. Finally, lineups that tilt toward either team are also appealing.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
