It’s time for weekly bold predictions. The point here is that if you follow the consensus, you’re probably going to have a good team. But in order to go from good to great, you have to take some chances. You have to do your homework and figure out where you can zig when the rest of your league (or at least your opponent this week) zags. In short, you need to know how and when to be bold.
We asked our analysts to provide a bold prediction for Week 11. Their answers and justifications are below.
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Fantasy Football Week 11 Bold Predictions
What is one bold fantasy prediction (player related) for the upcoming week and why could it happen?
“The Panthers boast the league’s second-worst run defense in DVOA, so it’s a great spot for the Dallas ground game to find its footing. The Panthers red-zone defense ranks 32nd in the NFL, with them allowing the league’s third-highest rushing TD percentage. They have also faced the highest rushing rate in the NFL. So, what’s the bold prediction? Tony Pollard scores not one, not two, but three TDs in Week 11.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
“Tony Pollard will find his way back into the top 10 in Week 11. This week, he gets the second-best matchup for fantasy running backs. He squares off with a Carolina Panthers team currently allowing 26.7 fantasy points pr game to the position. The Cowboys should be up early in this game, and Pollard should see a sizeable workload as the Cowboys run out the clock.”
– Aaron St Denis (The League Winners)
“Tony Pollard will finally score for the first time since Week 1. The Panthers have been downright horrendous against running backs this year, even allowing D’Onta Foreman to find paydirt in Week 10. Carolina has allowed a rushing score in every contest this year but two, and it is imperative Dallas gets Tony Pollard going if they have any chance of playoff success this year. This will be a much-needed get-right game for Pollard, as he goes for over 100 yards and a score Sunday against the Panthers. ”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
“This week is finally Tony Pollard week! It feels inevitable that Pollard will eventually break out of his current funk and have a monster performance and a date with the Carolina Panthers seems like a perfect spot to do so. The Panthers have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs this season and the Cowboys are currently 10.5-point favorites on the road. Pollard’s 70% snap share and 57% route participation currently rank sixth and seventh in the NFL, respectively, among all running backs. Look for the Cowboys to feed Pollard and get him back on track as he goes for 30+ fantasy points on his way to an RB1 OVERALL finish this week.”
– Robert Norton (Last Word On Sports)
“Tony Pollard finally lives up to his preseason expectations in week 11 and finishes as a top-three fantasy running back. The Panthers are a terrible team against fantasy running backs. They have allowed an 80-yard rusher in five of seven games this season. I could see Pollard break a long one for once as the Cowboys get the run game going in this matchup. Pollard is seeing the work, and the Panthers will allow the Cowboys to throw any which way against them. ”
– Steven Pintado (The Fantasy Coaches)
“Darnell Mooney posts 100 receiving yards and a score in Week 11. Since Week 5, the Lions have the 12th-highest rate of single-high (55.1%, per Fantasy Points Data). With Fields against single-high, Mooney saw his target share increase to 11.8%, his air-yard share rose to 25.4% (16.7 aDOT), and his first-read share stood at 15.7%. Since Week 5, the Lions have been a turnstile against slot receivers, allowing the third-highest PPR points per target and the second-most receiving touchdowns (per Fantasy Points Data). Mooney will run about 67% of his routes against Brian Branch (76.7% catch rate and 114.4 passer rating). Among 29 qualifying slot corners, Branch has allowed the most receiving touchdowns and the sixth-highest passer rating. To the MOONey this week.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
“T.J. Hockenson scores over 20 half-point PPR fantasy points for the second consecutive week. The star tight end is coming off a 24.9 fantasy point performance against the New Orleans Saints, totaling 11 receptions on 15 targets for 134 receiving yards and a touchdown, setting a season-high in targets and receiving yards. He has been a target machine the past two weeks with Joshua Dobbs on the team, posting a 36% target per route run rate, 40.3% receiving yards market share, and 0.47 fantasy points per route run (per Fantasy Points Data). Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos have surrendered 12.6 fantasy points per game to tight ends, the most in the NFL. Even if Justin Jefferson returns this week, Hockenson could still finish as the TE1.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
“WR Nico Collins finishes as a top 15 WR, outscoring both Davante Adams and Amari Cooper, who underperform this week… You can stick a fork in both the Raiders’ and Browns’ offenses- they’re done. The Raiders’ offensive line can’t pass-protect. Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson is out for the year in Cleveland. Instead, Come Hell or High Water, Mark Ringo would rather hitch his boots to the Texans’ pass-first offense led by star rookie C.J. Stroud. Ringo picking an underdog to outperform Davante and Amari, who are loved by the fantasy industry and beat those same analysts this week with their star WRs, who they burned an early pick on back in August, well, if that ain’t Texan. I don’t know what is.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
“De’Von Achane rushes for 100 yards and two touchdowns against the Raiders — on 12 or fewer carries. Welcome back, Mr. Achane. Oh, how your stakeholders have missed you. Before sustaining a knee injury in Week 5 that led to a four-game stay on IR, Achane had put up ridiculous numbers over a three-game stretch: 37-455-5 rushing, 8-62-3 receiving, and 33.3 PPR points per game. Obviously, Achane isn’t going to average 12.3 yards per carry or 30-plus fantasy points per game for the entirety of his career, but with his Olympic-caliber speed and extraordinary contact balance, Achane is ticketed for stardom. He’ll go off this week against a Raiders defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to running backs.”
– Pat Fitzmaurice (FantasyPros)
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