The Bears and Vikings will close the book on Week 12 tonight. The visitors have a top-heavy and highly concentrated offense. Conversely, the hosts have a more vast collection of choices. There are a few exciting Captain/MVP options and lineup construction choices.
Game: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -3.0
Over/Under: 43.0 Points
Bears Analysis: Justin Fields is the focal point of Chicago's offense, leading them on the ground and through the air. The dual-threat quarterback was sharp in Week 11 after returning from a multi-week absence with a thumb injury. He completed 16 of 23 passes for 169 yards, one touchdown and zero interceptions. Fields was also sacked a season-low twice.
But, of course, Fields's passing, as it has often been in his career, was only part of the story. He also ran for 104 yards on 18 attempts. Furthermore, according to The 33rd Team, Fields had a season-high 13 designed runs in Week 11, four more than his previous high. In the third-year quarterback's last three games uninterrupted by an injury, Fields had 786 passing yards (262.0 per game), nine passing touchdowns, one interception, 27 rushes and 182 rushing yards (60.7 per game). Fields is an elite selection on this slate.
DJ Moore is Fields's best passing-game weapon. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), in Fields's last three fully healthy contests, Moore had team-highs in targets (29), receptions (23), receiving yards (457) and receiving touchdowns (five), much higher than the second-highest marks of 17, 15, 147 and three, respectively.
Moore has a decent matchup. Per The 33rd Team, Moore has aligned wide 62.0% of the time this year, and the Vikings have allowed more DraftKings and FanDuel points per game to perimeter wideouts (19.3 and 16.0) than to slots (12.9 and 10.4) since Week 8.
Cole Kmet is the only other Bear with a meaningful role in their passing game. He was second in targets (17), receptions (15), receiving yards (147), and receiving touchdowns (three) in Fields's last three full contests. The matchup isn't daunting, with the Vikings ceding 4.0 receptions per game, 54.3 receiving yards per game and one touchdown to tight ends since Week 8.
Khalil Herbert is Chicago's top running back. However, his salary isn't appetizing since Fields siphons rushing production, and Herbert isn't a bell cow. D'Onta Foreman is out, clearing a path to more touches for rookie Roschon Johnson.
Minnesota has held running backs to just 56.0 rushing yards per game at 3.6 yards per carry since Week 8. However, they've permitted them 9.0 receptions per game and 46.5 receiving yards per game. In Week 11, Herbert ran 11 routes, and Johnson ran seven. The latter had multiple receptions in the year's first three games, with Fields starting. Johnson doesn't have a high ceiling and will likely be only a complement to Herbert. Nevertheless, he can outproduce his punt salary at DK.
Vikings Analysis: Justin Jefferson isn't expected to play as of Sunday night. Still, Joshua Dobbs is a compelling choice because of his dual-threat ability. The veteran signal-caller has bested 220 passing yards with precisely one passing touchdown in back-to-back games. Moreover, Dobbs has rushed for a touchdown in five straight games, rumbling for 131 yards in three games for the Vikings.
T.J. Hockenson is Dobbs's top dog in the passing game. Hockenson has led the Vikings in targets (33), receptions (22), receiving yards (259) and had a touchdown reception in the previous three games.
Jordan Addison and Brandon Powell are viable options without Jefferson. The matchup is decent for the rookie and the diminutive wideout. Addison and Powell have 53.9% and 54.0% slot rates, respectively. The Bears have allowed 19.9 DK points per game and 16.0 FD points per game to slot wideouts since Week 8 versus 9.8 and 7.6 to perimeter wide receivers.
Josh Oliver isn't heavily involved in the passing game. He was targeted four times on eight routes last week, though. Minnesota's second tight end had four receptions for 47 receiving yards and one touchdown in Week 11. The touchdown was somewhat flukey after Dobbs extended the play by scrambling, and Oliver stood wide open in front of Dobbs. Still, his targets per route run last week were encouraging.
Alexander Mattison, like Herbert, is the head of his committee backfield and an unappealing pick at his salary. Pivoting to the more dynamic Ty Chandler is appealing. Chandler had 73 rushing yards on 10 carries last week, not far behind Mattison's marks of 18 and 81. In addition, Chandler was force-fed four targets for four receptions and 37 receiving yards on only seven routes in Week 11, and Mattison had two targets, one reception and negative one yard on 20 routes.
Chicago has allowed only 55.5 rushing yards per game and 3.2 yards per carry to running backs since Week 8. Fortunately for Chandler, they've coughed up 7.0 receptions per game, 74.5 receiving yards per game, 10.6 yards per reception and one receiving touchdown to running backs in those games. Therefore, Dobbs's and Chandler's scoring can correlate if the Vikings choose to feed their speedy back targets instead of running him into Chicago's stout run defense.
Final Thoughts: Fields is in the top tier of Captain/MVP options. Moore, Dobbs and Hockenson are the other choices for the role, albeit in the second tier. Balanced lineups are the most appealing. However, an onslaught Vikings lineup, with only Fields from the Bears, is also compelling.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
