The Packers and Vikings are fighting for their playoff lives on Sunday night. The game’s spread is slight. The underdog Packers have a more vast selection of options. However, Minnesota has the top player on the slate and a few more viable choices.
Game: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Spread: MIN -1.5
Over/Under: 43.5 Points
Packers Analysis: Jordan Love didn't have his best effort of 2023 when the Packers played the Vikings in Green Bay in Week 8. He completed 24 of 41 pass attempts for 229 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Love also ran four times for 34 yards.
Love has played much better since facing Brian Flores's blitz-heavy defense in Week 8. Among 34 quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks since Week 9, Love is Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) fourth-ranked passer and tied for seventh in big-time-throw rate (6.2 BTT%). In those eight contests, he passed for 2,094 yards (261.8 per game), 16 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
Moreover, Love has dealt well with the blitz. He's PFF's ninth-ranked passer among quarterbacks who've dropped back at least 75 times against the blitz this year. Love has thrown eight touchdowns and only one interception when blitzed, albeit with eight turnover-worthy plays. Love is one of the best options on this slate.
Jayden Reed is the most appealing healthy pass-catcher for the Packers. The rookie was targeted on a blistering 35.4% of his 65 routes in his past three contests. In those games, he had 18 receptions (6.0 per game), 95 receiving yards (31.7 per game), one receiving touchdown, four rushes, 38 rushing yards (12.7 per game) and one rushing touchdown.
Reed's matchup is outstanding. Per The 33rd Team, he's had alignment rates of 74.2% slot and 21.9% wide this year. Meanwhile, the Vikings have coughed up 21.9 DraftKings and 16.2 FanDuel points per game to slots and 19.5 and 15.0 to perimeter wide receivers since Week 13.
Dontayvion Wicks is also an exciting pick if he's active. Since Week 13, Wicks has had 18 targets, 13 receptions (3.3 per game), 189 receiving yards (47.3 per game), 2.20 Y/RR and one touchdown reception. He's had a 66.2% slot rate this year. So, Wicks has the more favorable matchup from the slot most of the time.
Malik Heath will be bumped into a more prominent role if Christian Watson (doubtful) and Wicks (questionable) are out. Yet, gamers shouldn't dismiss using him if Wicks is active since he could suffer an injury setback or have his playing time reduced if he's ineffective.
Tucker Kraft has a brutal matchup. Nevertheless, he's a critical part of the passing attack. Since Week 13, he has run the second-most routes (131) for the Packers and had 22 targets, 15 receptions (3.8 per game), a team-high 218 receiving yards (54.5 per game) and one touchdown reception.
Aaron Jones should handle the bulk of Green Bay's rushing opportunities. In the last two weeks, he's handled 34 of the backfield's 46 rushing opportunities, rumbling for 180 yards at 5.3 yards per carry. Jones also ran 24 routes and had seven targets, five receptions and 24 receiving yards.
The veteran running back was great last week and can stay hot in a decent matchup. Since Week 13, the Vikings were tied for the sixth-most DK (26.3) and allowed the eighth-most FD (22.5) points per game to running backs. Jones is a game-script-proof, high-upside pick.
Vikings Analysis: Justin Jefferson has a drool-inducing matchup tonight. The superstar wideout has had a 60.6% slot rate this year, and the Packers have allowed the most DK (35.3) and FD (28.3) points per game to slots since Week 13. Rookie quarterback Jaren Hall should have eyes for Jefferson and pump him targets throughout the entire game. Furthermore, Jefferson has had over 140 receiving yards in four of eight games this season and had six receptions for 85 receiving yards and two touchdowns in one of the outlier contests.
Circling back to Hall, he also has a good matchup. Since Week 13, the Packers have coughed up the third-most DK (22.2) and tied for the fourth-most FD (20.7) points per game allowed to quarterbacks. The rookie quarterback can also score points on the ground. According to PFF, he ran for 403 yards and three touchdowns at BYU in 2022 and 379 and three in 2021. Hall could faceplant, but the matchup and Hall's rushing ability are grounds for rolling the dice on him on this slate.
Ty Chandler had a breakout performance in Week 15, rushing 23 times for 132 yards and one touchdown. He also had three receptions for 25 yards. Unfortunately, the second-year running back couldn't build on it last week. He ran eight times for 17 yards and a touchdown with zero targets. Still, Chandler's eight rush attempts were 80% of the backfield's rushes, and Alexander Mattison's two attempts for negative-one-yard shouldn't result in a change to the backfield's pecking order. In addition, Chandler ran 12 routes versus one for Mattison in Week 16.
According to RotoViz's pace app, the Packers have faced the eighth-highest situation-neutral rush rate (46%) since Week 13. Kevin O'Connell could lean on the running game more often to lighten Hall's load in only his second professional start. The Packers have allowed the 13th-most DK (24.1) and tied for the 13th-most FD (20.5) points per game allowed to running backs since Week 13. They also allowed 91 rushing yards per game, 4.3 yards per carry, four rushing touchdowns, 2.8 receptions per game, 24 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs in those games.
Johnny Mundt is the cheapest useful player on this slate. T.J. Hockenson is on injured reserve, leaving a gaping hole atop the depth chart at tight end. Josh Oliver has a higher salary on this slate. However, Oliver ran only eight routes last week versus 18 for Mundt. As a result, Mundt is probably mispriced.
Final Thoughts: Jefferson and Love are the first-tier Captain/MVP picks. Jones and Chandler are the other choices, a cut below Jefferson and Love. Lineups ranging from balanced to Packers onslaughts are the most appealing on this slate.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
