NFL DFS Picks & Advice: Packers vs. Cowboys (Sunday)

IT’S PLAYOFF FOOTBALL TIME, BABY! Now, the season after the season begins. Anything can happen in the playoffs. We have seen in previous years Cinderella teams keep the magic going and advance deep into the playoffs. We have also witnessed NFL Goliaths get trounced by lowly-seeded teams. My body is ready for the chaos.

The chaos of injuries and a playoff slate that extends across three days should make it a wonderful DFS slate for us to get different with our lineups. Embrace variance. Embrace the wildness of playoff DFS. Again, if I didn’t write up a particular player for this week’s Primer, it’s because I don’t like their outlook and won’t be playing them in DFS. It’s time to build some lineups.

Here is the complete Super Wild Card Weekend Primer. Below we dive into Packers vs. Cowboys.

DFS Primer: Wild Card Weekend

Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys

DAL -7.5, O/U 50.5
Packers vs. Cowboys Player Prop Bets via BettingPros

Quarterbacks

Jordan Love: Love has been nothing short of amazing since the light came on in Week 9. Since that game, among 38 qualifying quarterbacks, he ranks seventh in fantasy points per dropback, 11th in yards per attempt, second in passing touchdowns, and fourth in CPOE. Love has logged eight games this season with at least 20 fantasy points. Love faces a Dallas secondary that has looked mortal over the last few weeks. Since Week 13, Dallas has allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt while also ranking 16th in CPOE and 17th in passing yards per game allowed. The pass rush has ranked first in time to pressure in that timeframe but only 20th in pressure rate. Love has been elite against pressure since Week 9, ranking fifth in pressured yards per attempt, fourth in pressured passer rating, and fifth in CPOE when facing pressure. With a smattering of top-shelf quarterbacks on this slate, Love will get lost in the shuffle, but he’s a fantastic play.

Dak Prescott: Since Week 8, Prescott has been balling out, ranking seventh in yards per attempt, third in passing yards per game, first in passing touchdowns, and sixth in CPOE. Over his last 11 games, he has been fifth in fantasy points per dropback and highly accurate throw rate. Prescott should crush a Packers’ secondary that, since Week 13, has allowed the third-highest yards per attempt and passer rating and the 10th-highest CPOE. Green Bay has struggled versus deep passing as well all season, allowing the sixth-highest deep completion rate and the ninth-highest deep passer rating.

Running Backs

Aaron Jones: Jones has returned with a fury since Week 16. Over his last three games, he has averaged 23.3 touches and 135.3 total yards. Last season, he played a season-high 82% of the snaps without A.J. Dillon in the lineup. Jones is FINALLY fully healthy. If the snap count last week doesn’t illustrate that, then Jones’s 6.3% explosive run rate and 3.33 yards after contact per attempt since Week 16 should. It also helps that since Week 13, Green Bay’s offensive line has been clearing the road, ranking ninth in adjusted yards before contact per attempt and second in Fantasy Points’ rush grade. Jones should have no issues running on Dallas, who, since Week 13, has allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game and the 14th-highest rushing touchdown rate. Across their last six games, Dallas has allowed the third-highest yards per carry (4.99) and the highest success rate (62.7%) to gap runs. Since Week 16, only 39.7% of Jones’ runs have been on gap plays, but Jones ranks third in gap yards per carry (5.92) and seventh in gap success rate.

Tony Pollard: Since Week 8, Pollard has averaged 16.9 touches and 70 total yards, while his tackle-breaking metrics have been markedly improved. Since that point, among 51 qualifying backs, he ranks 19th in explosive run rate and 18th in yards after contact per attempt. He faces off against a Green Bay run defense that remains one of the league’s worst. Since Week 13, they have allowed the 12th-most rushing yards, the 12th-highest explosive run rate (tied), and yards per carry to zone runs (4.63). Since Week 8, Pollard has seen 59.6% of his carry volume on zone runs. Pollard can be stacked with Prescott or played as a one-off as leverage off a popular Dallas passing attack.

Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb: Lamb finished as the WR1 in fantasy points per game this season. He led the NFL in targets (181) while also ranking 14th in deep targets and first in red zone targets. Since Week 11, the Packers have had the 11th-highest rate of single high (56.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Lamb has had a 35.4% target share, a 39.1% air-yard share, 3.54 YPRR, and a 38.6% first-read share. Since Week 13, Green Bay has allowed the fifth-most receiving yards and the 10th-highest PPR points per target to slot receivers.

Brandin Cooks: Cooks has been a touchdown-scoring machine with eight scores across his last 11 games (nine red zone targets). The touchdowns have sustained his fantasy success because the yardage hasn’t been there, with only three games on his ledger in that span with more than 50 receiving yards. Since Week 11, the Packers have had the 11th-highest rate of single high (56.9%). Since Week 8, against single-high, Cooks has had a 17% target share, a 27.3% air-yard share, 2.10 YPRR, and a 17.5% first-read share. Cooks is one off worthy, stackable with Lamb and Prescott, or usable with a Green Bay Packer in a mini stack.

Jayden Reed: Reed has been an unsung hero all season, even before blowing up down the stretch. He finished 21st in deep targets, 14th in red zone targets, and fifth in total touchdowns. He has five games this season with at least 19 PPR points. Since Week 13, Dallas has had the fifth-highest rate of single-high (58.1%). Since Week 8, in the games in which he has played at 30% of the snaps against single-high, Reed has had a 19.4% target share and 2.37 YPRR. The Green Bay wide receiver usage has been a mess with their litany of injuries all season. Reed is a strong play this week in a game stack, as a one-off, or as a stacking partner with Love.