This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Week 18. Ugh. This is by far the hardest week to play DFS. We won’t get too many reports on how much players will play – some we know won’t play at all – and good luck picking the right second-string quarterback. But, we are running out of weeks to play DFS, so you know we are going to attempt to make sense of it, and I’m here to help.
This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Week 18. Ugh. This is by far the hardest week to play DFS. We won’t get too many reports on how much players will play – some we know won’t play at all – and good luck picking the right second-string quarterback. But, we are running out of weeks to play DFS, so you know we are going to attempt to make sense of it, and I’m here to help.
NFL Week 18 DFS Value Plays: Targets & Advice (2023)
Quarterback
Nick Mullens (MIN): @ DET $5,1000 (DraftKings)
Mullens is a gunslinger and the Lions’ pass defense hasn’t been able to stop anyone lately. The Lions rank a middling 16th in pass defense DVOA, but they’ve been much worse than that of late. They gave up 227 yards to CeeDee Lamb and 345 yards to Dan Prescott this past week, and two weeks ago Mullens himself had 411 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Others to consider: Sam Darnold (SF) $5,200
Sam Darnold (SF) vs. LAR $6,500 (FanDuel)
As a 49ers fan, I don’t expect head coach Kyle Shanahan to change his game-plan at all for this meaningless Week 18 game. It’s more of a gut feeling and my knowledge of Shanahan from my years of watching this team, but it is my belief he wants to score 40 against his NFC West rival Sean McVay. Any time Purdy has come out of the game this season, even for a few plays, Shanahan – instead of playing it safe by handing it off – has instead chosen to call pass plays for Darnold. When he filled in for Purdy for two plays in the Cardinals game when Purdy went down with a stinger, the first play call was a deep pass down the left side of the field that fell incomplete, but it goes to show that Shanahan isn’t afraid to air it out with Darnold under center.
Others to consider: Nick Mullens (MIN) $7,100
Running Back
Jordan Mason (SF): vs. LAR $4,600 (DraftKings)
Elijah Mitchell has been cleared to play in this game after there was some question if he would be over his illness in time, but I still expect Mason to get a heavy workload. Mitchell has been oft-injured but can be dynamic when healthy, I don’t know if Shanahan would risk getting him hurt in a meaningless game when Mason is quite capable of carrying the workload. Look for Mitchell to get the start with Mason getting the bulk of the work as the game moves on.
Others to consider: Chuba Hubbard (CAR) $5,500
Jordan Mason (SF): vs. LAR $5,700 (FanDuel)
Mason is such a good value on both sites, that I’m taking him on FanDuel as well. I like him a little more on FanDuel since he does not have any receiving upside that would increase his value in the PPR scoring of DraftKings. As I mentioned when discussing Darnold, it is my belief that Shanahan wants to put up 40 points in a meaningless game just to continue his regular season dominance of his rival Sean McVay.
Others to consider: Ronnie Rivers (LAR) $4,400
Wide Receiver
Christian Kirk (JAX): @ TEN $3,000 (DraftKings)
Kirk isn’t officially cleared to play yet, but if he is cleared, he is a lock a minimum salary. It’s not often that Draftkings will lower a players price so low, even when they are hurt, but here we are. The Jags need this game to have any chance at making the playoffs and Kirk could be an integral part as they’ve lost four of the five games they’ve played without him.
Others to consider: Ronnie Bell (SF) $3,200
Ronnie Bell (SF) vs. LAR $4,800 (FanDuel)
If I’m playing Darnold I’m going to need a stacking option and Bell is that guy. He caught his first touchdown of his young career this past week and has filled in nicely over the course of the season. He should play a career high in snaps in this game and there’s a good chance, as a second team player, that he and Darnold will have some chemistry.
Others to consider: Christian Kirk (JAX) $4,000
Tight End
Noah Gray (KC): @ LAC $2,500 (DraftKings)
The Chiefs are going to be resting most of their starters, Travis Kelce included, leaving Gray to be the likely starter. The Chargers defense has been terrible all season so why would that change in a meaningless Week 18 game? Gray has been a decent fill in for Kelce over the years when Kelce was out of the game and the Chiefs have even had them both on the field at times. At his minimum salary price tag, Gray will allow you to pay up for players that still have something to play for.
Others to consider: Davis Allen (LAR) $2,500
Johnny Mundt (MIN): @ DET $4,500 (FanDuel)
I don’t know much about Mundt as a player, but I know he has had 10 targets over the past two games and scored a touchdown this past week. He also played 77 percent of the snaps, so similar to Gray, Mundt gives you a way to afford the more expensive skill players that have playoff implications on the line this week.
Others to consider: Noah Gray (KC) $4,800
Defense
Los Angeles Chargers vs. KC $2,800 (DraftKings & FanDuel)
I know I poopoo’ed the Chargers defense earlier in this article, but the combination of price and matchup with Blaine Gabbert starting at quarterback has me taking the Chargers defense on both sites this week.
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