Soaking up value in fantasy football drafts is one critical piece of the puzzle for winning a league or winning substantial money in best ball tournaments. While the wisdom of the crowd and sharpness of drafters have created a relatively fair average draft position (ADP) for most players, a pair of wideouts stands out as slightly overvalued. The following two wide receivers shouldn’t be avoided at all costs. Yet, even gamers entering many Underdog Fantasy best ball tournaments should be underweight on the duo at their respective ADPs.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
- 2024 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Early Overvalued Wide Receivers
Stefon Diggs (BUF – WR): 25.0 Underdog Fantasy ADP/WR15
Stefon Diggs kicked the door in to start the 2023 season, torching opposing secondaries. Unfortunately, his production disappeared down the stretch. Diggs’s full-season stats were rock-solid, and he was the WR14 in half-PPR points per game (13.0) among wide receivers who played at least nine games in 2023.
However, the 30-year-old wide receiver’s slump to close the season was alarming. The following table has his stats from the first 10 weeks, with Ken Dorsey as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator, and the final eight weeks (the Bills had a bye in Week 13) in the regular season when Joe Brady was the offensive coordinator. Target share and air yards per game were from our advanced stats section, and yards per route run (Y/RR) were from Pro Football Focus (PFF).
Diggs should rebound from his messy conclusion to last season. Nevertheless, the price is too steep for Diggs. Gamers who pick Josh Allen can mix Diggs in as a stacking partner at his ADP. Otherwise, passing on the veteran wideout unless he falls into the 30s is advisable.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA - WR): 36.6/WR23
Jaylen Waddle is unquestionably a talented wide receiver. Sadly for his fantasy value, he's in the same offense as one of the NFL's most dominant wideouts, Tyreek Hill. As a result, Waddle is a Robin to Hill's Batman. Miami's No. 2 wide receiver was the WR22 in half-PPR points per game (11.6) last season in Miami's top-heavy passing attack.
What if the Dolphins add another quality pass-catching weapon to the offense? For instance, Brian Thomas is the second choice in the latest NFL consensus mock draft. The wide receiver class is deep, too. So, the Dolphins could easily upgrade their No. 3 wideout in the second, third or fourth round of the NFL Draft. They could also add a more productive tight end than Durham Smythe. Only Hill and Waddle had double-digit target shares for the Dolphins last season. Any competent addition could cut into Waddle's production and knock him down from a low-end WR2 to a WR3 or worse.
Additionally, Tua Tagovailoa's production has dipped in the second half in consecutive seasons. The lefty signal-caller makes his living by getting the ball out quickly. Tagovailoa's results have suffered when he faces pressure or is forced to hold onto the ball. According to PFF, Tagovailoa had a 39.8% completion rate, 5.3 yards per pass attempt, two passing touchdowns and three interceptions on 163 dropbacks under pressure last season. In addition, his PFF passing grade was much higher when he took under 2.5 seconds to throw compared to over 2.5.
According to PFF, nine offensive linemen played over 390 offensive snaps for the Dolphins in 2023. Four of them are free agents. Specifically, Robert Hunt (608 offensive snaps), Connor Williams (497), Robert Jones (479) and Isaiah Wynn (392) are the players in question, and Hunt, Williams and Wynn had the third, fourth and fifth-highest pass-blocking grades among the club's offensive linemen per PFF.
According to Over The Cap, the Dolphins are in a massive salary cap hole. They must restructure contracts, cut players and possibly trade others to get under the salary cap. Thus, keeping the free agents on the offensive line might not be in the budget. If they can't patch together a competent offensive line, that could be disastrous for Miami's offense. Obviously, a less potent offense would impact Waddle. As a result, drafting Waddle to essentially repeat last year's production, which is what he'd need to do at his ADP to break even, isn't prudent.
More Early 2024 Fantasy Football Draft Prep
- Erickson's Early Fantasy Football Rankings, Tiers & Notes: QB | WR
- Early Must-Have Running Backs: Feb
- Early Must-Have Wide Receivers: Feb
- Early Must-Have QBs & TEs: Feb
- Early Undervalued Players
- Early Overvalued Players: RB
- QB2s w/ Top-5 Upside: Feb
- RB3s With RB1 Potential: Feb
- Players to Avoid: QB
- 3 Early Breakout Candidates
- 6 Early Fantasy Football Draft Sleepers
- Draft Values, Breakouts & Busts: RB | WR
- RB Dead Zone Running Backs: Draft or Fade?
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
