If you are new to the high-stakes world, the drafts can be overwhelming when you first sit down at the table. It is not just the larger amounts of money being played for or the amazing talent drafting against you that can be jarring, but the way rosters are constructed which is different from your average fantasy league. In my last piece on high-stakes leagues, we looked at pitching and why they go as high as they do in these types of leagues. In this article, we will talk about my approach to hitters in these types of leagues.
If you are new to the high-stakes world, the drafts can be overwhelming when you first sit down at the table. It is not just the larger amounts of money being played for or the amazing talent drafting against you that can be jarring, but the way rosters are constructed which is different from your average fantasy league. In my last piece on high-stakes leagues, we looked at pitching and why they go as high as they do in these types of leagues. In this article, we will talk about my approach to hitters in these types of leagues.
High-Stakes Fantasy Baseball Draft Strategy: Hitters
What are you looking for in terms of drafting hitters? I think it is counterintuitive, but, when you are thinking about who to draft, you should look at the end of the draft before the beginning. After you have done your player analysis, you should have a list of players that you feel are undervalued at either specific positions or for certain categories.
Let’s say you have a player going late in the draft that you love at third base. Then, you don’t need to worry as much about targeting a player like Austin Riley or Rafael Devers. If you feel there is a lot of cheap speed at the end of the draft, maybe you focus on power and batting average at the top of the draft. Having an end-game plan should inform your early draft strategy.
Remember, you need to stay balanced because of the overall totals in the majority of these contests. Here are the 80-percentile targets for last season’s main event:
| Runs |
HR |
RBI |
SB |
AVG |
| 1082 |
305 |
1049 |
187 |
0.2604 |
Balance is important because there are so many teams involved in the overall that you cannot afford to be too low in any one category. If you are playing in a contest without an overall, you can ignore this part.
What Kind of Players to Target/Avoid
I love volume players in these types of leagues. I know that the flashy, high-upside players are the ones that people push up the ADP, but the Marcus Semien types are the ones that pay dividends. If you look at the makeup of teams that win these big contests, they usually look pretty boring. However, they get very good production at every spot. Guys like Semien and Bryan Reynolds tend to drop in these drafts because they don’t have “high upside”, but you can count on them to produce.
On the flip side of that, I avoid high-risk players. Jazz Chisholm and Royce Lewis could be first-round talents if they stay on the field, but the chances of that isn’t worth the risk. Early in the draft, you should avoid the injury risks and players with a wide range of outcomes. If you want to take a gamble on a player like that, do it after the first half of the draft. You are typically going to drop a lot of players you draft in the second half anyways, so that is where you should make those gambles.
Another type of player I tend to avoid is the one-trick pony. These are typically players who really only contribute in one category. They can be elite in that one category, but the problem with these types of players are, if they get injured or bust, you can’t replicate their production off the waiver wire. If you are expecting 50 stolen bases from one player and he gets injured or loses his job, it is almost impossible to compete in that category. Spread the risk around by drafting as many multi-category performers as you can.
Finally, I really like multi-positional players in these contests. You don’t have a large bench, and, in NFBC, you don’t have IL spots. The more roster flexibility you have the easier the season is to navigate and the more gambles you can take on pitching.
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