Welcome to the grand unveiling of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast, a critical juncture for fantasy football fans, marking the end of 2023 with our sights set on next season!
As we reach the zenith of the 2023 season, I’m thrilled to present the latest edition of the 2024 Fantasy Football Forecast. Let’s dive into a few notable names.
2024 Fantasy Football Draft Advice
Arizona Cardinals
James Conner ended the 2023 season on an absolute HEATER. 27 carries for 150 yards, averaging 5.6 yards per carry, with a long run of 29 yards, and 1 touchdown in Week 18. 4 targets, 4 receptions for 54 yards, averaging 13.5 yards per catch, with a long of 34 yards.
Conner dominated the snaps in his final game at 73% as he had done all season. The sheer dominance of touches in 13 games, thrust Conner into an RB18 standing, averaging 14.5 points per game as the RB10 on 18 touches per game.
From Week 10 onward with Kyler Murray as his QB, Conner was the RB7 overall and the RB6 in points per game (16.6).
The injuries will always be a negative used against Conner, but there’s no denying he’s positioned for another strong season in 2024 with his starting QB back under center for the long haul. He’s entering a contract year and will be 29 at the start of the season.
The only concern is Conner’s lack of route participation influencing his receiving upside. Among RBs in 2023, Conner ran a route on just 36% of dropbacks (outside top-30 RBs). He was out-targeted by the combination of Michael Carter and Emari Demercado, who took snaps on third downs. From Week 10 onward, Conner played just 25% of the snaps on third down (outside top-60 RBs).
Kyler Murray completed 22 of 30 attempts for 262 yards, with a long pass of 34 yards, 1 touchdown, and a quarterback rating of 110.7.
The highlight of Week 18? Rookie Michael Wilson.
6 targets (21% target share), 6 receptions for 95 yards, averaging 15.8 yards per catch, with a long of 28 yards. 68 air yards and 40% air yards share.
The rookie posted a very under-the-radar campaign as a highly involved Cardinals WR. He ran a route on 80% of the dropbacks (35th among all WRs) which locks him into a full-time role in this offense next season, regardless of any additional moves they make. He also finished his season on an extremely high note, averaging 15.5 points per game after his last two contests with Marquise Brown out of the lineup. 10.1 expected points per game in his final four games. The fact that he was able to deliver spiked weeks with more opportunities matters for his long-term outlook. Also noteworthy is he was more efficient than Hollywood Brown, matching the veteran almost identically in total yards despite 25 fewer targets to go with just one drop.
Wilson, demonstrated his efficiency with 38 catches on 58 targets, amassing 565 yards. He averaged an impressive 14.9 yards per reception – second among all rookie WRs – indicating his big-play ability. Wilson totaled 95.5 fantasy points, which translated to an average of 7.3 points per game, placing him 56th among wide receivers in points per game.
Speaking of Brown…
The 2024 free agent had a year to forget in 2023. He struggled with bad Cardinals quarterback play before Kyler Murray returned to the starting lineup as the WR21 overall and as the WR34 in points per game (10.2). But after Murray returned, the Cardinals WR still didn’t produce. And he was worse. 5.8 points per game in three full healthy games before ultimately missing the remainder of the season due to injuries.
Overall, Brown hauled in 51 receptions on 101 targets, accumulating 574 yards at an average of 11.3 yards per catch. He found the end zone four times during the season. He scored 109.2 points over the season, averaging 7.8 points per game (53rd) in 13 games played. The lack of production was shocking, considering Brown posted nearly 1,200 air yards, a 25% target share, and 39% air yards share with the 16th-highest weighted opportunity rating.
Trey McBride: 6 targets (21% target share), 3 receptions for 34 yards, averaging 11.3 yards per catch, with a long of 25 yards, and 1 touchdown. He played 97% of the snaps.
The second-year tight end had a full-fledge breakout in 2023 after the team finally (FINALLY) elected to move away from Zach Ertz after an injury. McBride took over the starting TE1 duties in Week 8 and never looked back.
He ran a route on 81% of the dropbacks (3rd), commanded a 24% air yards share (3rd), earned a 26% target share (1st), boasted a 28% target rate per route run (2nd), ranked 7th in points per game (11.7) and 4th in expected fantasy points per game (14.1).
His 11.7 points per game average was BETTER than Sam LaPorta/Travis Kelce‘s league-leading 11.5 points per game averages…
Needless to say, McBride has firmly thrown his hat into the TE1 overall conversation for 2024, especially considering he only scored 3 TDs. The majority of his production was all yardage and receptions-based. More passing TDs for McBride, and we are COOKING with McDoubles folks.
The Arizona tight end was a full-time player for just half the season and still finished with 81 catches (5 fewer than LaPorta) and 825 receiving yards.
Other WRs involved in Week 18.
Rondale Moore: 5 targets, 4 receptions for 31 yards, averaging 7.8 yards per catch, with a long of 10 yards.
Greg Dortch: 4 targets, 2 receptions for 14 yards, averaging 7.0 yards per catch, with a long of 9 yards. Dortch does what he does every single year when the team puts him on the field. He produces when called upon. In yet, he doesn’t play more. Go figure.
From Week 11 onward, Dortch was WR50 overall averaging over 5 targets per game. He is an exclusive restricted free agent in 2024.
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