This old fantasy football mantra always rings true: Anyone is draftable; it just depends on their cost. Several quarterbacks are currently too pricy in average draft position (ADP) and this article will explore why they are flawed picks.
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Quarterbacks To Avoid
Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) — ADP: 111
It’s been quite the comedown for Trevor Lawrence in the NFL, going from the most hyped quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, to the unanimous 1.01 of dynasty rookie drafts and a sure thing. Fast forward to 2024, though, and Lawrence is in a much more trepidatious position. As far as quarterbacking goes, Lawrence is a good NFL quarterback, which is something that can’t be said about almost half of the QBs in the league, and it shouldn’t be taken for granted. However, Lawrence has never really turned into a good option for fantasy managers, scoring 23 points or more in just 16% of his career games and finishing as a top-12 QB 13 times in his last 34 games, which makes him a fringe QB1 option in single-QB formats. Calvin Ridley disappointed in 2023, coming off almost two full years out of the game, but without him, the Jaguars are left with only Christian Kirk and Evan Engram as reliable options for 2024. Unless Lawrence gets a bonafide WR1 on the team for 2024, it seems hard to expect anything to change for him in 2024.
Jayden Daniels (QB – LSU) — ADP: 123
The NFL seems to be warming up on Jayden Daniels with every passing week. Before the NFL Combine it was almost a hot take to suggest he might be drafted ahead of Drake Maye. Now it seems completely commonplace. NFL Mock Draft Database has Jayden Daniels taken at the 1.02 in 19 of the last 35 drafts in their database. Daniels is an exciting player, having rushed for over 1,000 yards in back-to-back seasons at LSU, not to mention throwing for 3,811 yards and 40 touchdowns in 2023. There is a downside, though. Daniels routinely takes big hits, to the point that when you search his name on YouTube ‘Jayden Daniels big hits’ is the third option in the menu. We are fresh off seeing how the 250-pound Anthony Richardson couldn’t survive an NFL season without better caring for his body. Now we’re faced with seeing a player who weighs 50 pounds less have the same issues. If Daniels made it to the Commanders he’d have some nice options in the passing game. But if he falls further to the Patriots, it becomes very tricky to see an upside case.
Jayden Daniels runs himself into such violent hits/tackles ALL THE TIME.
Dude! Protect yourself! pic.twitter.com/MW5d7rks2M— BOLTS Draft Talk (@BoltsDraftTalk) March 8, 2024
Justin Herbert (QB – LAC) — ADP: 90
When the Chargers moved on from former head coach Brandon Staley opinions were mixed on whether the Chargers were a desirable landing spot for a new head coach. Yes, the Chargers have Justin Herbert but they also possessed some massive cap hits to players like Joey Bosa, Derwin James and Khalil Mack on the defensive side of the ball, along with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the offensive side. The offensive line ranked 14th, per Pro Football Focus (PFF), in pass blocking and 32nd in run blocking, which leaves a lot to be desired. Not to mention Austin Ekeler seems unlikely to return. Williams is viewed as one of the most likely cut candidates, which will take another weapon away from Herbert. Herbert is a good quarterback but it hasn’t always translated to fantasy with only seven top-five weekly finishes in the last two seasons, failing to finish the year inside the top 10 in points per game in both years. Herbert’s floor is fine. After all, he had eight top-12 finishes out of 13 games in 2023. The ceiling hasn’t shone through in a little while, though, and without the Chargers making significant additions, this run-based offense under Greg Roman might be a little difficult for Herbert to flourish in.
Justin Herbert fantasy owners pic.twitter.com/416tMNk0BH
— Playmaker TD 🏈 (@playmakerTD) December 12, 2023
Geno Smith (QB – SEA) — ADP: 173
The Seahawks have leaned toward the run during their time under Pete Carroll. It’ll be interesting to see how much that changes with rookie head coach Mike Macdonald now in charge, who did say early into his tenure “the offense is going to be a physical unit that’s going to run the ball well”. In 2023, Smith finished as the QB24 in points per game, averaging 14.7 and breaking the 20-point barrier — which normally signals a very good game — on only three occasions. Out of the top 200 QB weekly scores this season, Smith was responsible for three of them. Smith had only two finishes outside the top 24 quarterbacks all year but finished with 15.4 points or less in nine of the 14 weeks he played. Smith didn’t particularly hurt you in a way many of the injured quarterbacks did in 2023 but he didn’t help you either, which is all the more worrisome when you consider the trio of excellent pass-catchers he had at his disposal.
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC) — ADP: 47
You’d be forgiven for being surprised that Patrick Mahomes is currently the QB4 in ADP after finishing as the QB14 in points per game last year. Mahomes had only three games above 21 points all season, with all three coming in the first seven games, two of those games saw Mahomes throw for three or more touchdowns, something he wouldn’t manage in any other games in 2023. When the playoffs arrived, Mahomes and the Chiefs were dialed in and scintillating but Mahomes still didn’t pass for more than two touchdowns in a game. The Chiefs have an emerging talent in Rashee Rice but Travis Kelce is 34 years old and looked visibly slower for much of last year. The Chiefs will have to make an addition somewhere on the offense. Until we see what that looks like, Mahomes is too costly at current prices.
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