Fantasy Football Draft Advice: Josh Jacobs, Saquon Barkley, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry

The 2024 version of NFL free agency has not disappointed. We’ve seen significant bag alert deals ranging from savvy under-the-radar signings to huge splashes by teams trying to get back into playoff contention. And RBs are back.

The player movement has created massive implications across the fantasy football landscape, with values rising and falling faster than ever throughout the 2024 fantasy football rankings.

Here we break down the biggest fantasy football winners and losers from 2024’s NFL free agency action. And below we dive into a few notable names.

2024 NFL Free Agency Winners & Losers

Josh Jacobs — I love the spot for the 26-year-old in an up-and-ascending offense. Potential for the three-down workload. There’s a reason why I’ve got him at RB6 overall. The rhetoric around Jacobs is based on his bad 2023 season, which was expected based on the sheer volume he took in 2022. Not that it looks like a complete outlier based on his career… with three straight RB1 finishes between 2020-2022. I don’t think the market will be high enough on Jacobs. The Packers only have Emanuel Wilson and A.J. Dillon on the depth chart behind Jacobs. It has been reported they like Wilson a lot. But do they like him enough to take Jacobs off the field? I am not so sure. My reservations turned out to be true, given the Packers re-signed A.J. Dillon after he tested the market. That nukes Wilson as a handcuff and does hurt Jacobs. Dillon was gifted a golden opportunity to earn a big payday as a 2024 free agent during the 2023 season but fell flat. Aaron Jones was injured throughout the season, putting Dillon in position to start before he landed himself on IR after Week 15. But he failed to provide anything of substance, averaging 3.4 yards per carry (5th-worst) with just two TD scores. His advanced rushing metrics were career-lows across the board and he didn’t have the scores (despite a robust red-zone role) to mask the lack of rushing production. At age 26, Dillon still has the chance to reclaim the red-zone role on the Packers, which would come at the detriment of Jacobs. And as bad as he was in 2023, it looks much more like an outlier than a sign of decline for a relatively young and rare-sized RB at 247 pounds. The Packers’ current staff has never shied away from feeding him alongside side Jones, so it’s hard to imagine they feel different with the Jacobs/Dillon pairing. If anything, perhaps Dillon’s red-zone woes last season will lessen his role in that area in 2024, in favor of Jacobs.

Saquon Barkley — The market will likely be higher on Barkley given the immediate upgrade in the supporting cast going from New York to Philly. Barkley has a chance to run behind holes he’s never dreamed of. Think it comes down to how the market plays off his TD potential. The “tush push” nuked Swift’s TD upside last season. But two years ago, Miles Sanders scored 11 TDs. Center Jason Kelce is gone, so that raises questions of how effective the “tush push” will even be. If Barkley’s main detractors are solely related to TDs (the hardest stat to project year-to-year), I’ll gladly scoop up the value. What if they acquired Barkley to be featured in the “tush push” to combat injury concerns for Jalen Hurts? Don’t just assume you know exactly how the Eagles will deploy their goal-line offense. Recall that Swift specifically has never been a true goal-line red-zone back, even during his time in Detroit.

But if Barkley stans focus only on the situation being positive (showing no concern for lack of pass-game work) then there’s a definite case to shy away.

Joe Mixon — Again, another landing spot I love. Similar to Jacobs, it checks off all the boxes for Mixon to be a full-blown bell cow, despite what his detractors will say about his lack of efficiency. The dude scores fantasy points because he scores TDs and catches passes. He’s also light years ahead of Dameon Pierce. However, I do fully recognize Mixon’s role is the appealing part of him in Houston, which can sometimes end in disaster when drafting fantasy running backs. If his ADP gets too high, I will be out. It’s not like a seventh-round pick trade will prevent the Texans from swapping out Mixon if he doesn’t deliver. However, the fact Mixon signed a three-year, $27 million contract extension that includes $13 million guaranteed after being traded, suggests the team is very high on him as their featured RB.

Derrick Henry — I don’t think the market will be high enough on Henry either. After all, he is 30 years old. But the combination of him and Lamar Jackson is so appealing. Gus Edwards was a TD machine last year. In that role, Henry could smash. Just note the receiving won’t be there (it never is) and that the Ravens’ prior commitment to a traditional thunder/lightning backfield does raise eyebrows about the sheer volume Henry might receive. He’s always been a back that requires 15+ carries before he can do damage. Edwards had five games last season with 15+ carries. It works in his favor that Keaton Mitchell likely won’t be ready for the start of the season coming off a torn ACL.